Let’s be honest. It has felt like August lately. I mean, really. For Hobby Airport, the last 3 afternoons have tied for the 5th hottest 3-day stretch of high temperatures this early in the season (trailing several 3-day periods from 1998 and 2011, both notoriously hot Houston summers). For Houston officially it’s the 12th hottest 3-day stretch so early in the season. It’s hot, it’s early, and it’s not going to get much better this week.
Today
Look for temperatures surging into the 90s again today. We hit 98° at Bush and 99° at Hobby on Monday. Maybe we’ll do a degree or so cooler than that today.
Upper air temperatures are a little cooler today, and there should be better coverage of showers in the area. While we don’t expect everyone to see rain today, at least some places will, and there could be a few heavy downpours as well. Regardless, it’s going to be hot, so please take care outdoors. And it’s yet another ozone action day for those with respiratory ailments to take note of.
Also, apparently ERCOT needs our help again this week, so for the good of, like, everyone, please try to cut energy usage where you can.
Wednesday & Thursday
Both days should see sun, clouds, and very slight storm chances. Call it maybe 20 percent coverage. Maybe. The forecast is reminiscent of a 1990s Sears commercial. Another scorcher indeed. Look for solid mid to upper-90s on both days. There will be very little relief. Please make sure you’re taking it easy and checking in on anyone vulnerable in this kind of heat. We went from springtime to August-type weather in what felt like a matter of hours, so it’s tough for your body to adjust to this quickly.
Friday into the weekend
Besides the heat, which is the most pressing weather story today, we do continue to keep a close eye on the tropics. The National Hurricane Center has slowly but steadily been bumping up the odds that Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche would develop into a tropical depression or storm this week. We sit at 70-percent odds as of 6 A.M. This morning, 92L remains a disorderly mess, so we continue to agree with the idea of very, very slow development.
The good news is that a couple things remain true forecast-wise with 92L today: It is not expected to significantly develop. It is expected to track near us or to our east. It is expected to be fairly lopsided, with most rain staying well east of Houston. On the unfortunate side, it likely means our somewhat excessive early-season heat will continue.
More specifically, expect 92L to gradually lift northward beginning Friday. Given the wind shear over the Gulf, dry air over Texas, and general disorganization of the system initially, development will be slow. Expect a possible center of circulation with something like 80 to 90 percent of the rainfall displaced to its east. Lopsided will be the appropriate word choice, I think. The system should head close to the Gulf Coast somewhere between about Galveston Bay through central Louisiana on Saturday. I would expect a depression or low-end tropical storm at this time and unlikely anything worse. The system is then expected to slide east across Louisiana and toward the Southeast and be out of our hair by the end of the weekend.
So how much rain are we expecting?
For the Houston area and points west, it’s likely to be sparse. Most folks should see maybe just a couple passing showers between now and Sunday. A few places will see slightly heavier showers, especially near the coast. But also, some places will see no rain at all. East of Houston and along the coast, the situation is a little trickier. Between here and Lake Charles, including Beaumont and Port Arthur, most places will probably see 1 to 2 inches of rain or less from passing showers and the rain shield from Invest 92L. Depending on the exact track and organization of 92L, this could change a bit in either direction. But in general, if there are going to be issues with flooding, they would likely be east of roughly Lafayette, LA.
Still, as always, we encourage you to check in once a day to see how this is progressing. And this is a good opportunity to build or refresh your hurricane kits and plans, which will help you all season long.
For those curious, elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Bill formed off the Carolina coast yesterday and is heading out to sea. The next name on the list is Claudette, which will make some folks around here cringe.
We will continue to watch, but at this point we believe heat to be the bigger story in Houston even into the weekend. Eric is back in the hot seat tomorrow and will have the latest then.
I’m getting tired of being told by an incompetent organization like ERCOT to conserve power.
They are supposedly in charge, but don’t know why so many plants are offline for maintenance??? Or when they will be back up???
Unacceptable.
Now we’re left hoping to be grazed by a tropical storm so our homes will be cool…….
Federal regulation or nationalization of power corporations.
According to Rick Perry, that is far, far worse than freezing in the dark. Or broiling.
Are you advocating nationalization or federal regulation? A state can respond to problems like this much better than the federal government. There is a bill addressing what happened in February in the Texas Congress right now. The federal government is much less accountable to Texans because it also represents 49 other states. Such a policy would probably mean much more expensive electricity and little, if any, improvement in reliability, and prevent us Texans from regaining control of our power grid if federal control doesn’t turn out well.
I remember that Sears commercial.
It’s gonna be a scorcher!
Guess our trip to Destin early next week will be ugly?
Hopefully not the whole time. Maybe just Sun/Mon.
Like Blackhawks Fan said, ERCOT really doesn’t have much credibility for any of the 27 million Texans who got left in the literal cold by them.
The saddest part is that they are the public face of the electric industry (they aren’t really regulators since these paper tigers aren’t actually regulating) and their overlords fed them to the wolves (us). Yet, they keep coming back for more.
I think of ERCOT as the Keystone Kops: pitiful but not the real power. I don’t have much faith in the electric industry to weatherize on their own since none of them want to spend money on this. But, I still conserve power for both my wallet’s self-interest and for my fellow neighbor. But, not for ERCOT’s sake.
P.S. That Sears commercial is both hilarious and on the nose.
Well said, Jingle! Or is that Mr./Ms. Jangle?
Thanks! Mr. Jangle if you’re nasty (to paraphrase the old Janet Jackson song). But, I’m good with Jingle, too. Ha ha!
Hello, the hyperlink to the hurricane guide pdf is not clickabl/selectable on the SCW app on a pixel 5.
Raining on the Ship Channel now. Hopefully a bit of a cool-off at peak hours.
Great article. Yeah it’s going to be a terrible summer I already know.
With this heat, I’m going to officially reverse myself and root for the moisture blob to get closer to us.
Not too close but closer to put some cloud cover and sprinkles on us.