August-like weather continues, and how to spot fearmongering

Good morning. The ongoing weather forecast remains more or less the same, with hot, but not too hot weather, and the potential for isolated to scattered rain showers most days. This is basically what August is like when there is no dominant ridge of high pressure overhead, or a low pressure system moving in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday

Skies today will be mostly sunny, allowing highs to rise into the mid-90s. As high pressure strengthens in the region we don’t anticipate much in the way of rainfall, although it is possible a few stray showers may develop east of the city. Winds will be light, out of the southeast at 5 or 10 mph later today. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-70s for inland areas tonight, while remaining near 80 degrees along the coast.

It will be August-hot for most of Texas on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

With the ridge firmly in control, we anticipate this being a hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s and almost no chance of rain.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend again calls for partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. However, slightly better rain chances enter the forecast due to a slight atmospheric disturbance that may push across the region. For most this probably won’t have too much effect, but it will nudge rain chances each day up to about 30 percent. They are most likely to develop during the afternoon hours.

Next week

Our days in the mid-90s with slight afternoon thunderstorm chances continue for much of next week. However, by Thursday or Friday this pattern could change as a stronger upper level disturbance moves down into Texas, and this may drive some better rain chances for the region. If you’re looking for details in a rain forecast eight days hence you’ve come to the wrong place!

Tropics

On Wednesday, we posted a mini-guide for dealing with a hurricane during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here’s one thing we didn’t say: Over the next two months expect the hype train to get rolling as it’s going to be a busy period and there will be some people wanting to prey on those anxieties. To that end, we’re already starting to see some scattered social media chatter about a “GFS Hurricane in the Gulf” about 15 days from now.

How to spot fearmongering 101. (Weather Bell/Space City Weather)

Please don’t fall for this. Even the best global models become much, much less reliable after about seven days, and almost completely so after 10 days. The GFS model is notorious for spinning up spurious storms. So although we do expect to enter a more active period in about 10 days, we have no confidence about where these storms will form. If someone is showing you a model plot for a storm 250 or 300 hours from now, or more, you have our permission to roll your eyes.

28 thoughts on “August-like weather continues, and how to spot fearmongering

      1. Eric H.

        They predict that far out so we can see where improvements can be made. You need to see what they get wrong to make the adjustments necessary to one day have them get it right. That’s why the NHC cones have gotten narrow over the years for the 3 day projections, and why they now put out a 5 day cone extension. They can do so with reasonable accuracy that didn’t exist even 15 years ago.

        1. Mike

          It seems you put a fair amount of confidence in the reports that claim the rest of the year will be a hurricane free-for-all. Why are those longer-term general forecasts/predictions reliable, but the smaller-scope, near term forecasts unreliable past a couple hundred hours?

    1. James

      That is like asking about cash flow projections 10 years from now in a DCF. You can make them as long as you want but they will become less and less reliable as time goes on and more variability comes into play.

  1. Helen

    Thank you for addressing the fear mongering head on. I suspect there will be a lot of eye rolling going on from your loyal followers. Thanks for bringing sanity to the weather forecasts.

    1. Jeremy

      Yes, THANK YOU Eric and Matt for all you do!

      Any chance you might start a webpage dedicated to bringing sanity back to political reporting? lol 😉

    2. Ann

      Helen, my exact thoughts! Maybe we could form an eye rolling group. Teenagers aren’t the only ones who could do this 😜

  2. Robin Bodiford

    I totally agree. I love visiting the weather forums for lively discussion and opinions. But I do keep in mind that, even from the professionals, the wide variety of opinions for future casting is just that, opinions. Opinions formed with some degree of knowledge are interesting to follow but I do disregard all of the hype. Everyone should already be prepared and go enjoy the sun.

  3. Christy

    You are our go-to source … no hype and trustworthy. Let the eye-rolling begin!
    It was fun hearing you ask a question to the astronauts, Doug & Bob, a few days ago on their pre-splashdown interview in your ARS Technica job.

  4. Becky Roberts

    I saw one the other day showing 5-6 ‘storms’, some east of Africa, heading our way. Big eye roll and kept on scrolling. Thank you for your wisdom!

  5. JR

    Love you guys and appreciate your daily posts.

    But it’s a little rich how you say you’re “no hype” and “don’t panic” and then you buy into the covid hysteria with no skepticism at all.

    You could do a lot of work for good if you’d express the same skepticism towards covid panic that you do towards weather panic.

    Both are meant to scare people and drive up TV ratings.

    1. RB

      Yes, the Deep State has killed 150,000 Americans to [checks notes] drive up TV ratings. Excellent work.

    2. Does Katy Need to Evacuate

      The difference is that Eric and Matt are meteorologists NOT epidemiologists. There was little to no hype in bringing up COVID. Regardless of anyone’s opinions on its severity it is a reality we must deal with and it’s prudent to advise on hurricane preparedness in conjunction with COVID.

  6. Peggy

    I found out about Space City Weather during Harvey…. Since then y’all are the only meteorologists I listen to. No hype, no fear-mongering…. Thank you for that!

    1. Brad

      Yes, because the consequences of ignoring a 2 week forecast and 100 years of a warming planet are the same.

  7. Kelli

    Love this!! Even if something does start to brew what is even the point of worrying that far out?! Everyone who lives here (or has for any length of time) should already have a plan in place.

  8. kztoy

    I got practice with eye-rolling yesterday when CSU released their “revised” forecast…effectively doubling their earlier “guess”.

  9. A. Meyer

    Thanks Eric and Matt – great job and been following for quite awhile (back in Eric’s Sciguy days). I became addicted to the Euro and check the runs a few days a week (I’m in Supply Chain with concerns along all coasts including Mexico and Canada). I remember the Euro nailing Harvey and recall the gut punch when I saw the stall a few days out. Lately, the Euro has been awful. Any chance you could do some investigating and see when they back off the latest model tweak – seems to me that it went the wrong way…

  10. Regina

    Why oh why isn’t there a Facebook page I can follow like yours but for Covid-19? Fact based. Direct. Based on science and minus the hysteria and politics. Can someone make this happen please? Thank you guys for what you do!

  11. wizard

    If there’s a big storm in the gulf in 15 days just like this, I’m going to have to jab you about this post 😉

Comments are closed