Eric Berger

In brief: Houston may be experiencing its last truly chilly night until next fall. (That was painful to type). After this we’ll be transitioning to warmer weather, with temperatures eventually reaching the upper 80s this weekend, with a persistent southerly wind. Rain chances increase a bit on Sunday, and a little more on Monday.

Final night in the 50s?

This is not a firm prediction, but rather an informed guess. Temperatures this morning are in the 50s across Houston, with even a few spots in the 40s, such as Conroe and Cleveland. But alas, this could be our final fling with such cooler weather. In fact, it would not surprise me if we do not see another chilly night like this for five or more months.

Why is that? We certainly can see cooler nights in May, before the real onset of summer. But lows in the 70s are much more common in May than lows in the 50s. Last year, Houston saw its final springtime night in the 50s on May 1. We did not touch the 50s again until October 8. This year I don’t see any evidence of a cooler night during the next 10 days, at least. Hopefully we won’t have to wait all the way until October again.

Tuesday

Winds are now firmly coming from the south, but it will take some time to replace the drier air mass that has been in place since Sunday. Accordingly, we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds today, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Moisture levels will rise, and by this evening it will start to feel fairly humid. Winds will be light, generally only 5 to 10 mph, from the south-southeast. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the low 80s, with a bit more humidity. I think skies will mostly clear out in the afternoon, allowing for a fair bit of sunshine. Overnight lows will only drop to about 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Windy and warmer. Both days should see highs somewhere in the mid-80s, but the bigger story is likely to be increasing onshore winds. They’ll blow from the south at about 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph on Thursday, and perhaps 30 mph on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should be even a bit warmer, with highs pushing into the upper 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. The other story will be continued breezy conditions. Winds look to peak from the south-southeast on Saturday, gusting to 35 mph, but we still could see gusty conditions on Sunday. This should provide a pretty epic tail, or cross-tailwind for Texas Bike MS 150 riders this weekend. One thing to watch for on Sunday, especially for the aforementioned bike riders, is some showers to the northwest of the Houston area, generally north of the The Woodlands, and west of Katy. Rain chances in Houston itself, on Sunday, are lower and probably on the order of 20 percent.

Next week

The forecast models diverge in terms of their solutions for next week. The GFS model keeps us in the upper 80s, with only scattered showers. The European model is a little bit cooler with better rain chances area-wide. As we’ll be in want of some rain by then, I’m hoping for the latter solution. We shall see.

In brief: Monday will yield an absolutely splendid day of weather in Houston. Like, it will be one of the top 10 nicest days of the year. Tuesday will also see a modicum of drier air before a warmer, southerly flow takes ahold. The weekend will see highs in the upper 80s with strong southerly winds, but rain chances will probably hold off until at least next Monday.

Monday

Do you like dry air, mild temperatures, clear skies, and light winds? Because today checks all of those boxes. After a pleasantly cool start in the 50s, temperatures will reach the lower- to mid-70s this afternoon with light winds. Skies should be mostly sunny, albeit with a few clouds this afternoon. With dewpoints in the 40s, the air will feel plenty dry.

In my humble opinion, this is just about the finest weather one could have—but such things never last. Those light northeast winds will shift to come from the southeast later today, and while we won’t feel the influence of that right away, it will set into motion a prolonged period of a southerly flow, and set the stage for a much warmer pattern later this week. Lows will still get into the mid-50s tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

This will be a bit of a transition day, as humid air begins to replace dry air, but the swap is not yet complete. Skies will be mostly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. With the influence of the southerly flow, lows on Tuesday night will be considerably warmer, in the mid- to upper-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

This will be a trio of modestly warm days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds each day, although each successive day should see more cloud cover and less clear sky. Nights will drop to around 70 degrees, give or take, with decent amount of humidity. Winds will consistently blow from the south, increasing in velocity toward the end of the week when we may see sustained winds of 20 mph, with gusts of 30 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

Those winds will persist into the weekend. We’ll see this deepening southerly flow over the region due to a potent low pressure system over the central United States. This gives us a fair amount of confidence in the forecast for this weekend, and it’s a warm and windy one. If you’re participating in the Texas Bike MS 150 (Saturday and Sunday) or IRONMAN Texas event (Saturday), you can expect temperatures in the upper-80s, generally. Skies should be partly sunny. Both days will see strong south-southeasterly winds, blowing at perhaps 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph—so generally a pretty amazing tail wind for bike riders. Rain chances also look low, to non-existent through most of the weekend.

Next week

By Monday we may begin to see something of a pattern change, with slightly better rain chances entering the forecast. While I can’t rule out some kind of front working its way into Houston, right now the most likely scenario is continued warm weather in the upper 80s for much of next week.

Summary: Houston faces a few more warm days before we get a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity starting on Sunday. We’re also watching for the potential of heavy rainfall to the north of Houston on Saturday night in association with the cool front.

Thursday

You guessed it, more warm and humid weather is on the way for Houston today. High temperatures will reach the mid-80s in the city, with the possibility of upper-80s if we get much sunshine this afternoon. And that’s possible, with the potential for a few breaks in the clouds after this morning. Winds will blow from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts, and rain chances are about 10 percent. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 70s.

Friday

If you liked Thursday, you’re in luck. Friday will be much the same. Highs again will be in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity. Expect another warm night.

Saturday

Most of Saturday looks fine, if warm, for outdoor activities. Highs will be slightly cooler, but still in the low- to mid-80s with cloudy skies. Some light showers will be possible in Houston during the afternoon and evening hours, but we’re not expecting anything wild ahead of a frontal push overnight.

The forecast begins to change Saturday evening, or perhaps during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will mass to our northwest, with areas such as College Station at risk of 2 or more inches of rain, with higher bullseyes. How much of this heavier rainfall filters down into Houston is an open question, however. At this point I expect milder conditions in the city, and down to the coast, where accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain appear more likely. Thunderstorms will be possible, although less likely. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the mid-60s.

Sunday

A chance of showers will linger in the morning, near the coast. But for the most part this should be a cloudy and cooler day, with highs in the lower 70s, and lower humidity. We’re going to get one fairly cool night with this front, and it comes Sunday night. Most of the city will drop into the 50s heading into Monday morning.

Next week

Monday should also see highs in the 70s before the onshore flow really starts ripping again. We’ll accordingly warm up, and will likely reach the mid-80s by mid-week, and upper-80s toward the end of next week. Highs potentially in the 90s are definitely in play, but we’ll have to see how things shake out.

We’ve got a couple of major outdoor athletic endeavors next weekend, the Texas Bike MS 150 and IRONMAN Texas event in The Woodlands. A precise forecast remains impossible, but the overall pattern looks warm and humid. I’m guessing highs in the upper 80s, with a fairly pronounced southerly wind. Rain chances, at this vantage point, continue to look fairly low.

Summary: Our warm pattern continues, with humid days and sultry nights heading into the weekend. Then, with the approach of a front, we’ll see widespread showers and some thunderstorms. These will likely peak on Saturday night and Sunday morning before drier air starts to move in and we see a couple of cooler nights.

Wednesday

As I write this low temperatures outside are in the mid-70s for much of Houston, with a relative humidity of around 90 percent. That is not quite summer-like sticky, but it is definitely rather warm for April. The record high minimum temperature for today, April 17, is 74 degrees. The city’s official monitoring station briefly hit 74 degrees this morning, so it’s likely we’ll tie the record for warmest low temperature for today.

The warm and sticky weather will continue into the weekend. Highs today are likely to top out in the mid-80s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light, generally from the south at 10 mph or so with higher gusts. It will be another warm evening, but there is enough moisture about to potentially generate some light shower activity later this evening, perhaps after 9 pm, and into the wee hours on Thursday morning. Don’t expect much in the way of accumulations. Any showers are likely to be fairly scattered.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm and mostly cloudy days. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity, and southerly winds at about 10 mph with higher gusts. While there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, a stout capping inversion will be in place that should limit rain chances to 10 or 20 percent each day. Nights remain warm, in the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

A cold front will approach the region this weekend, and eventually move through the area early on Sunday morning. This will determine our weather, and when and where we see rainfall. For now, I expect Saturday to see mostly cloudy skies, highs in the mid 80s, with scattered rain showers. Rain chances will increase on Saturday evening, and through the overnight hours, as the front nears and passes. At this point, rain chances look to be higher, along with a greater potential for heavy rainfall, for locations north of Interstate 10. There is, as yet, no strong signal for severe weather beyond typical thunderstorms.

Sunday will be cooler, with highs likely in the low 70s. Although some drier air will be moving in, some showers may linger near the coast in the morning. Skies should start to clear some during the afternoon hours. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 50s for most of the area. This may be the only night in the 50s with this front, so enjoy the cooler and drier air.

Next week

Monday will be another pleasant spring day with drier air, a fair amount of sunshine, and highs of perhaps 80 degrees. After that we’ll start to warm back up with a fair bit of humidity. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s during the second half of next week.

If you’re planning to participate in the Texas Bike MS 150, it’s still too early to have too much confidence in the forecast. There’s no strong indication of rainfall or storms, and the most likely outlook is fairly warm and humid weather. That would tend to imply a nice southerly or southeasterly breeze for the rides to La Grange and College Station, but I would be a fool to try and predict winds this far out.