Eric Berger

Good morning. Much of the Houston region has fallen into the 60s this morning, and it feels quite pleasant outside. Unfortunately this early preview of fall won’t last, and we’re going to be headed back to warmer days and more humid nights for awhile.

That’s not to say our weather will be exceptionally hot. It won’t. But increasingly, I don’t think our first reasonably strong fall front is coming this month. That’s happened plenty of times before—the average date of Houston’s first significant front is around the last week of September. But it’s still disappointing that Fall Day remains a ways away.

Tuesday

Today’s weather isn’t bad though, by any stretch. After our pleasing start, highs today will climb to around 90 degrees with sunny skies. Winds will shift to become southeasterly, and this will start to bring a more pronounced and humid flow into the region, although this afternoon should still feel somewhat drier than normal. We should still be able to squeeze out one more night in the low- to mid-70s before we warm back up completely.

Wednesday

As high pressure begins to strengthen some, we’ll see more humidity and high temperatures will nudge up into the low-90s. Like on Tuesday, rain chances will be near zero. Overnight lows are likely to only drop into the mid- to upper-70s, unfortunately.

Thursday and Friday

We will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s to end the work week. With the moister atmosphere Houston should start to see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Any storms that do develop should pass rather quickly. Lows will remain muggy, in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm and muggy weather, with Sunday likely the warmest day as highs reach the mid-90s. It looks like a weak (again, a very weak one) front will push toward the area this weekend on Sunday. This could drive some rain showers on Sunday or Sunday evening, and then bring some slightly cooler and drier nights with it. I wouldn’t expect anything too robust, but it should bring daytime and nighttime temperatures down a bit. Highs for the most part look to be in the low 90s for much of next week.

A couple of programming notes

I’ve been working on a post summarizing our summer weather and putting it into historical context. Look for that to publish later this week. Also, we’re really getting near the end of the Texas hurricane season, but I’m not quite ready to make that call yet. Soon, probably.

Before jumping into the forecast, let’s review the widespread rains the region experienced over the last several days. The map below displays rainfall total estimates for the previous week across the metro area. As always there is a broad variation in the precipitation over such a broad area, with some areas receiving as little as 0.25 inch, and others near Clear Lake more than 6 inches. But pretty much everyone received at a least a modest soaking during the Thursday through Saturday period.

The window for widespread rainfall will now close for awhile, with only a smattering of afternoon chances later this week. Overall, the forecast looks to be fairly boring, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. It will, essentially, be weather typical for late summer in Houston. This is the time of year when we can realistically start looking to mid-range models to see if any significant fronts are on the horizon. Alas, I just checked. There are not.

Monday

Drier air is moving into the region, and we’re going to bottom out with dew points in the 50s this afternoon. That will make our highs in the low 90s feel a bit more comfortable. Skies will be mostly sunny today with light easterly winds. Temperatures this evening should be fairly pleasant, about 80 degrees, with slightly slower humidity. Outdoor plans would be a good thing. Lows tonight will reach their lowest this week, probably, with low 70s in the city. Some lucky inland locations will see the upper 60s tonight.

Tuesday

We’ll have one more day with slightly drier air, but the onshore flow is headed back on Tuesday, so humidity levels will only be a stitch below normal levels. Highs, again, should be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will turn southeasterly. Lows on Tuesday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday

As high pressure takes control of our weather, we can expect to see highs in the low 90s, sunny skies, and warm nights in the mid-70s. But the ridge won’t be so strong as to preclude a 20 or 30 percent chance of afternoon or evening showers, along with the sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The late week pattern should more or less persist through the weekend. The last gasp of a dying front will approach the region on Sunday, and this may bring a bump in rain chances, but I don’t have much confidence in how that will ultimately play out at this point.

Next week

At this point I’d bet on next week’s weather being similar to this week’s—there’s just not a whole lot of change in the near-term forecast.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics continue to sizzle with activity, with Hurricane Nigel following behind the now dissipated Hurricane Lee, and potentially more storms on the way. Fortunately Nigel does not appear to be a threat to land. Moreover, the Gulf of Mexico continues to look exceptionally quiet for at least the next week. Head over to The Eyewall for a full rundown on the tropics today, and every day.

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. After the widespread showers and thunderstorms the region experienced on Friday afternoon, we just wanted to provide a quick update for the rest of the weekend, and early next week.

The overall pattern remains more or less in place today, with a stationary boundary and a moist atmosphere capable of supporting rain storms. Conditions should remain fairly calm this morning, but by noon we should start to see the development of showers to the west of the Houston metro area, and these will gradually move eastward. The most likely time for showers and at least a few thunderstorms will be this afternoon and early evening. The western half of Houston is more likely to see showers than the eastern half; call it a 50 percent chance west of downtown, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Highs today will top out at about 90 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies.

By Sunday we should see the influx of drier air, which should shut down rain chances. Plan outdoor activities with confidence with daytime highs in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies.

As the drier air moves in, the city will see some slightly cooler mornings on Monday and Tuesday, with some far inland areas perhaps briefly dropping into the upper 60s. It’s not fall, but we’re not that far away from fall now. Highs for most of next week will probably slot somewhere in to the low 90s.

Good afternoon. We’re jumping in to say that yes, that potential for heavy rainfall we’ve been talking about was in fact real. And that it is happening right now. Essentially we have seen the collision of two atmospheric boundaries over the metro area this afternoon, and it has combined with daytime heating to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.

This rainfall is very much welcome, and helping to put a dent in our extreme drought conditions. But it has also come at an inconvenient time, with the Friday evening rush hour upon us, and the prospect of some high water in streets. While we do not anticipate significant flooding concerns, please do take some extra time and caution on the roadways this evening.

I do think that the slow movement of these storms to the southeast should continue, with the bulk of the heavy rainfall likely moving offshore by around sunset, if not before. After that we expect a fairly quiet period overnight and during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, it’s possible that we will see another round of storms on Saturday afternoon. We’ll have an update for you on Saturday morning with the latest on what to expect this weekend.