Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will remain in a warm pattern through most of the weekend before a robust cold front arrives on Sunday evening or early Monday to cool us down significantly. There will also be some rain chances throughout the period—before, during, and after the front. My sense is that most of this rain should be gone by the time of Halloween, but the current forecast looks pretty cold for trick-or-treating, with temperatures likely in the 50s.

Wednesday

Another warm day is on tap for the Houston region today, with highs in the mid-80s and southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with the warm flow. Some rain showers will be possible today, but they should be fairly scattered, and most likely closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10. Slight rain chances will continue overnight, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This day will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs in the mid-80s. By late morning or early afternoon, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms should start to sag through areas such as College Station, and then down into the Houston area. The upper-level disturbance driving these storms is not super potent, and my sense is that most areas will see 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with the potential for a few areas to see 1 inch or more. The best chance for higher accumulations will be the western half of the metro area.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s. A chance of rain will linger, perhaps 30 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will be warm and humid, with highs in the mid-80s and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances on Saturday are low, but not non-existent. Sunday is a bit more interesting as it looks like the front may come to the region a little bit faster. For now, I think most of the area will still see a fairly warm and humid day, with highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances will depend on the timing of the front, as I think there is a pretty good likelihood that showers accompany the frontal passage.

Next week

Who is ready for some cold weather?

By Monday morning we should see much drier and chillier Canadian air flowing into the Houston region. Highs will depend on cloud cover, but Monday through Wednesday of next week may top out in the upper 50s, with overnight lows in the 40s. This is positively winter-like for Houston, especially with blustery northerly winds on Monday.

As for Halloween, right now I think we’ll see clearing conditions, but temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour are likely to be in the mid-50s, probably. So be prepared. Temperatures should gradually warm during the second half of next week.

Good morning. Houston faces another six warm days, with some healthy rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, before a sweeping front drives us truly into fall-like weather. And with the potential for nights in the 40s, it may feel almost winter-like for a few days next week. The timing of all this lines up with Halloween, so I’m still not particularly confident in that forecast yet. But I’ll discuss some of the uncertainties below.

Tuesday

Today should be a sunny and warm day, with a fairly robust southerly flow. Winds probably will gust as high as 25 mph from the south. For most of us, highs will top out in the mid-80s, although a few inland locations may briefly pop into the upper-80s. With a slightly drier flow it won’t be quite as humid as Monday, and rain chances should be essentially zero. Lows tonight drop into the mid-70s for most.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure eases away from the area we’re going to see a surge in atmospheric moisture levels during the middle of the week. This is a tricky forecast, because this much moisture will tend to support heavy rainfall. At the same time, the most favorable atmospheric dynamics—primarily a forcing mechanism to lift this surface moisture—will lie over Central and West Texas. The bottom line is that I think most of our area will probably get between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain this week. However, there is a risk for some areas to receive 2 inches or more, particularly the further inland one lives. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.

Friday

Rain chances will start to diminish by the end of the week, but not go away entirely. We’re still looking at a warm-ish day, with highs in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid-80s. If you’re like me and you’re looking for a time to get in a long training run for the Houston Marathon with low humidity, I’m afraid there are no good options. Dewpoints look fairly high throughout the weekend, so expect humid days and nights, with lows of around 70 degrees.

Next week

We still have lots of questions about the timing of the cold front, and the amount of Canadian air it will usher into the region. So from here out you’re going to get my best guess. I think the front probably will push into Houston sometime on Monday, possibly during the morning hours. There will be some initial showers with the front. And then it’s possible some light showers will linger into the Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, I do think this will probably end before it’s time to trick-or-treat on Halloween (next Tuesday). We’ll see. At this point I think much of the area will see highs drop into the 60s next week, with lows possibly in the 40s. It’s still a week or more out, so the usual caveats apply.

Good morning! I want to thank the hundreds of people who came out to celebrate Fall Day on Sunday afternoon—it was lovely to meet so many of you, and see some old friends. Shout out to the family who drove all the way down from College Station. I also want to thank Reliant for supporting such a great event. And finally, today is the eighth anniversary of Space City Weather. I can’t believe it’s been that long, because it only feels like Matt and I are getting started.

As for our weather, there won’t be much change for the next week or so. We’re going to be in a warm-ish pattern for fall, with highs mostly in the mid-80s and lows in the low- to mid-70s. We’ll also see some decent rain chances later this week. This pattern will hold through the weekend before a fairly strong front is likely to arrive by or before Halloween, which could drop daytime highs into the 60s. Still a long ways to go, but I wanted you to know there will be an end to this warmer and muggier weather, eventually.

Monday

At Fall Day several people asked me what the weather would be like for next week, and I simply pointed to the sky. What we saw on Sunday is more or less likely what we should see today, and for the rest of the week. We’re going to see partly sunny skies, and highs in the mid- to upper-80s on Monday. Winds will be out of the south, as they will for much of this week, gusting to about 20 mph. A few areas near and along the Gulf Freeway saw rainfall this morning as some atmospheric moisture surged into the area, but I think that’s mostly it for rain chances until Wednesday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week that I’m confident will see mostly sunny skies. So if your plans require sunshine, Tuesday’s the day. Look for highs in the upper 80s, with southerly winds. Overnight lows drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

A slug of tropical moisture will move into the region during the second half of the work week. Since much of this moisture is coming from the Pacific, the best rain chances will be west of Interstate 35, in Central and West Texas. The Houston region should be on the periphery of the main action, with most of the area picking up perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain through Friday. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies otherwise, with highs in the mid-80s, and lows in the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

For now there appears to be little chance of the front making it through by the weekend, so we can probably expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-80s, and continued muggy air. Rain chances are not zero, but at this point they don’t look particularly high, either.

Next week

At this point I would pencil in the aforementioned front for next Monday, which hopefully will be the case as it may bring an additional round of showers. It would be nice to have this weather out of the way for next Tuesday, Halloween, but for now there’s just no way to be sure. In any case, after the front we probably will have a few days with highs in the 60s or 70s, and lows in the 40s or 50s. November, in other words, should feel like November.

Good afternoon. As we get closer to Fall Day on Sunday, I wanted to share a final update on what you can expect if—excuse me, I mean when—you show up. Matt and I will be on hand, along with our webmaster Lee Hutchinson and web guru Dwight Silverman. Reliant has put a lot of work into making this a fun event for all, and they’re offering some great giveaways:

• 4 Houston Rockets tickets
• 4 Houston Texans Tickets
• a Lance McCullers autographed baseball
• a Michael Brantley autographed jersey

In addition, the first 20 people who show up can get a free, personalized paperback copy of my book on the origins of SpaceX, Liftoff. All you have to do is ask (and show up at 4 pm or shortly after).

We’re also going to have several activities for children, including face painting, and an assortment of fall-inspired fare that can be purchased separately:

• Chaider (chai & apple cider)
• Dirty Pumpkin Chai
• Lemonade
• Hot cocoa
• Flavored Syrups (pumpkin, hazelnut, vanilla, caramel, sf vanilla)
• Chocolate croissant
• Pumpkin Muffin

As for the weather, it still looks warm-ish, but based on the latest data I anticipate temperatures in the low- to mid-80s in the Hermann Park area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Finally, there will be reserved parking available near the McGovern Centennial Gardens, so please be sure and look for the signs.

See you Sunday!