Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s last truly extreme drought came during the torrid summer of 2011. Not only was that summertime period exceptionally hot, the months leading into the warmest time of the year were very dry. During the first six months of 2011, Houston received just 7.88 inches of rain. It was the driest January through June in city history. By the end of June, 2011, the vast majority of Texas was under “exceptional” drought conditions, and that was before the heat hit.

Fortunately, this year, we started summer in a good posture. At the end of May, pretty much the entirety of the eastern half of Texas was drought free after a spring of moderate temperatures and healthy rains. That began to change pretty quickly in June, of course, and July has been the same through its first three weeks; very hot and, for the most part, very dry in terms of rainfall. As a result of this, a “moderate” drought has reemerged for coastal Texas, including Galveston and Brazoria counties, as well as part of southeastern Harris County. In the absence of substantial rainfall, we can expect this drought to worsen in the coming weeks. Any rains this weekend, of course, will help.

Friday

Today will be very hot and sunny, much as the rest of this week has gone. Expect high temperatures of around 100 degrees, very high humidity, and only very light winds from the south. Temperatures on Friday night will, again, only drop down to around 80 degrees.

Saturday

Change is on the way for the weekend, as high pressure shifts westward and opens our region up to precipitation from atmospheric disturbances and the sea breeze. This means our best chance for rain will come during the afternoon hours. For Saturday, I’ll peg rain chances at 30 percent, with the possibility of a few areas seeing decently strong thunderstorms. Rain chances look highest on Saturday north of Interstate 10. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 100 degrees.

Sunday

This day will probably offer our region its best chance of rainfall for awhile, with perhaps as much as 60 percent of the Houston metro area seeing light to moderate rainfall. Don’t expect a soaking, as briefly heavy thunderstorms will likely be fairly isolated. Most of Houston should only receive a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. When it’s not raining, it should be mostly sunny and hot, with highs at least in the upper 90s. Note that I cannot rule out more widespread, heavier rainfall on Sunday at this point. If the forecast changes, I’ll provide a brief update this weekend.

Next week

Rain chances in the vicinity of 30 percent, daily, will hold on during the early part of next week. We will see a few more clouds next week, and some slightly drier air this should help bring down the heat index just a bit. So while temperatures will still be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, it should feel a little bit less hot during the daytime.

With only a slight reprieve this weekend, very hot summertime temperatures will continue for at least the next week across the Houston region. The big question is one of rain chances this weekend, with Sunday looking like it may offer our best bet to wet our drying soils.

Thursday

Today will be much like the previous days this week, with high temperatures reaching 100 degrees, sultry humidity, and only very light south winds offering scant relief. Outside of the morning hours, skies will be mostly to completely sunny. Overnight lows will be around 80 degrees. You know the drill because most of July has been the same—unending and unrelenting.

Friday

Conditions will be more or less the same on Friday, with a heat advisory necessarily in place.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend we may start to see some modest changes as the high pressure system that has been dominating our weather retreats to the west. High temperatures this weekend will still be in the upper 90s, with some locations still possibly hitting 100 degrees. But in the absence of a suffocating high, we may see a few disturbances rotate through the area, and produce some showers and thunderstorms.

Chances are probably only on the order of about 20 percent on Saturday, but may jump up to 40 or even 50 percent on Sunday. Most of the region is likely to receive on the order of one to three tenths of an inch of rainfall, but a few lucky areas may receive more. The most likely time for any storms to develop is during the afternoon hours, with chances fading during the evening hours.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for highs in the upper 90s, along with some rain chances continuing in the vicinity of 30 percent each day. Some (slight) additional relief will come as a bit of drier air works its way into the atmosphere. The effect of this will be to push wet bulb globe temperatures—a measurement of the overall misery of the heat—below dangerous levels into the middle of next week.

Remainder of next week

Rain chances probably go mostly away later next week as high pressure remains. High temperatures will remain in the vicinity of 100 degrees, but with slightly lower heat indices due to the aforementioned drier air. As for more substantial relief from this stifling pattern, I just don’t see too much on the horizon. It is not for the lack of looking.

Good morning. For the foreseeable future, Houston’s forecast remains one of very hot weather. The only real watch item of note is rain chances this weekend, particularly on Sunday and into Monday. Unfortunately, the models have trended a bit drier so my expectations of a good, solid soaking are not high. Especially if you live west of Interstate 45.

Wednesday

With high pressure solidly in place, we can expect another day of widespread temperatures of about 100 degrees in the Houston region, with sunny skies and high humidity. This will push the heat index high enough that the National Weather Service has called for a “heat advisory” to cover the area. Winds will not provide much relief, being only light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Nights will continue to be warm and muggy, dropping to only about 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure eases to the west, it will open the window to a bit more troughiness, which is to say a disturbance pushing down into the southern United States this weekend may have some influence on our weather. However, the strength of any disturbances or boundaries pushing into the Houston metro area is suspect, and the influence of these is likely to be felt most keenly on the eastern half of our our region.

All of that is to say that we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs generally in the upper 90s. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps peaking at 30 to 40 percent on Sunday. Unfortunately, accumulations look slight. Most of the modeling I’ve looked at suggests there is about a 50 percent chance that most of the area sees on the order of one or two tenths of an inch. So really, only a light and fairly inconsequential dusting of rain. There’s always the chance that things will change as we get closer to the weekend, but right now we’re trending away from meaningful relief from the heat and emerging drought.

Next week

Monday and perhaps Tuesday should be another day of temperatures in the upper 90s with modest rain chances. After that, I’m afraid, high pressure will probably begin to assert its control once again.

By raw temperature values, June and July 2022 were each the hottest June and July that Houston experienced in about a century and a half of records. The average temperature last June was 86.7 degrees, and July was 88.0 degrees, both of which beat the previous monthly records by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit. So far, the average temperature in June and July has been slightly lower than the torrid pace of 2022. However, to me, this summer feels hotter, and a look at the underlying data reveals why this is so. We can see this in both the heat index—which factors in both temperature and dewpoint—as well as nighttime temperatures.

Another way in which this summer’s heat has been extreme has come in terms of nighttime temperatures, making it feel like it is never cool outside. Here’s a look at the number of nights this summer of 80-degrees or warmer.

So what is going on here? The primary driver appears to be an anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico. We can see the warm water’s influence in the sharp jump in heat index (again, higher humidity) and very warm nights at Hobby Airport. This sizzling Gulf of Mexico may portend bad things for hurricanes when the tropics season really gets going in a few weeks, or wind shear may come to our aid. We cannot be sure. But the Gulf’s heat is pushing our temperatures and humidity higher this summer. There is also an underlying impact from the urban heat island effect, but there has not been much urbanization around Hobby Airport between this year and last.

The bottom line is that the planet is warming, and the heat records we’ve seen falling in recent years are a consequence of that. It is probably not correct to say this is “extreme” heat any more. This is simply hot summer weather during an El Niño event. Some of our readers do not like us referencing climate change on this site, and that’s fine. We do not do it often, but sometimes plain talk is warranted. We are an objective, reality based site, and report what we are observing. One reader wrote me yesterday, saying we should stay in our lane. Well, ma’am, weather is our lane. And yes, there is a significant gulf between weather observations and the general climate. But climate is the background influence on local weather conditions. And the planet’s overall thermostat is rising. We can either pretend this isn’t happening, or we can have an adult conversation about what we should do about it. Put simply, the recent summer heat in Texas, and Houston, is abnormal; and in the history of meteorological observations here, it is unprecedented. Also, it sucks.

Now, on to the forecast. Which is hot, humid, and generally pretty awful until the weekend.

Tuesday

High temperatures today will reach 100 degrees for much of the area, with sunny skies and fairly high humidity. Winds will be fairly light, out of the southwest at around 5 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees, although winds may be a bit more gusty from the south. Rain chances are, with the sinking air, very nearly zero.

Wednesday through Friday

As high pressure holds sway, this hot and sunny pattern will more or less persist. Of this, there is not much more to say.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend the omnipresent high pressure system will start to recede to the west, and this should allow a series of atmospheric disturbances to push southward into the Houston area. It remains too early to be able to offer a definitive forecast for what this will mean. But probably, Saturday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 90s, and perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain. Sunday should see a few more clouds, with highs in the mid-90s, and an even healthier chance of rain. By no means are we expecting a washout, but you might hope for 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through Monday.

Next week

Some rain chances persist into Monday, but after that conditions locally look drier. Highs, probably, will climb back into the upper 90s next week as we continue rolling toward the peak of summer in early August.