Has Houston just had its last really cold night until next November?

Summary: It’s a chilly morning across Houston, with temperatures generally in the 30s, and you’ll want a jacket. But after this morning we start to warm up nicely. A weak front on Thursday should set the stage for some stellar weather this weekend. In this post I also discuss whether this past weekend marked the last outbreak of really cold weather this season.

End of winter?

For Houston, I would characterize a “really cold night” as a temperature below 40 degrees. Your view may well differ, but that is a nighttime temperature about 5 degrees colder than our normal lows during the middle of winter. In any case, it’s a night when most people want their heat running, and they step outside in the morning and things feel pretty cold. Or, as my wife says when she lets the dogs out, “It’s freezing!”

Most of the Houston region saw a pair of nights this weekend that dropped below 40 degrees, and it was a genuinely cold winter weekend. As we get near the end of February, such cold snaps become rarer. The question this morning is whether we will see sub-40 degree temperatures again this season. I would say the answer is not definitive, but I think there’s a solid chance we don’t. There is signal in the global models for some cooler air air around the beginning of March, but I’m not sure it will get below 40 degrees in Houston. The bottom line, I think, is that after this past weekend Spring has sprung.

Also, I wanted to mention that we’ve published a second sponsorship video with Reliant. Check it out to see some of the fun things we’ve done over the last seven years.

Monday

Today should be a very fine day, with sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Seriously, this will be one of those A+, Goldilocks days that Houston experiences between cold fronts and warmer and more humid weather. Winds will shift to come from the south at 5 to 10 mph later today. With this beginning of an onshore flow, conditions will be warmer tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the upper 40s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll continue to see a nighttime warming trend, with lows in the upper 50s on Wednesday morning, and low 60s by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to blow from the south, becoming more noticeable by Wednesday, with some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Expect a warmer day, with highs likely reaching 80 degrees or a bit higher. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy. A front will push through the area during the daytime, but as of now overall rain chances with its passage look quite low. I’d bet on a dry front. It will not going to be particularly potent, but the front will bring us some drier and cooler air for the weekend. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 50s.

Friday

This looks like a fine, sunny day with highs in the mid-70s and drier air. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

This is going to be a great weekend for any outdoor activities you may have. Look for sunny skies, and highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and upper-70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the lower 50s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. By the second half of the weekend we’ll see the return of a moderate onshore flow, which will start to nudge up humidity levels.

Next week

Temperatures will bounce upward, into the low-80s for the first half of next week. It should be our warmest weather of 2024. However, it looks like we may see a decent front near the end of the month. There are also some hints that later next week could also bring our first real chances of rain back into the forecast, but the forecast starts to get pretty hazy at that point.