Eric Berger

Good morning. Very warm weather will continue this week, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees on a daily basis. However, it appears that the ridge of high pressure anchored over the southwestern United States will retreat somewhat by this weekend, allowing for some partly cloudy skies and, potentially, even some rain chances to seep into the area. Do not look for too much relief, but some chance of rain is at least better than none.

I also want to provide some big picture perspective on summer. It is now July 17. Some parts of the United States, including Alaska and the upper Midwest, have reached the peak of summer. However, for Houston the peak of summer does not come until early August—August 4 for Bush Intercontinental Airport, and August 7 for Hobby Airport. Truth be told, the period from mid-July through early September is typically the hottest of the year for us. Let us hope that things turn around this year.

Monday

If you ventured outside over the weekend, you have a pretty good idea for what to expect this week. High temperatures today will push 100 degrees for much of the area away from the immediate coast, with overnight lows only dropping to 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny, with light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances are virtually zero.

Tuesday through Friday

Conditions will be virtually the same for the rest of the work week, with the only change that highs may be a degree or two below 100 degrees. Still very hot, very humid, and very sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure backs off this weekend, we should see the development of a few clouds and, accordingly, some slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s. We also may see the rotation of atmosphere disturbances into the area, and these could be the trigger for some rain showers.

The details of such systems this far out are impossible to predict, but I’d broadly predict a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and perhaps a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on Sunday. Whether these showers come to pass will also have an effect on air temperatures of course. All of this is fairly hazy at this point, but it is at least possible that the pattern will somewhat change.

Next week

Looking ahead to next week, it appears as though our weather will be fairly typical for late July, which is to say high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. We are, after all, approaching the peak of summer.

Good morning. Since the forecast is pretty much unchanged—expect very hot and sunny weather for the foreseeable future—I want to briefly address a question I’ve received several times. And that is, why does Apple’s weather app consistently show a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain for the next several days?

Now if we’re to believe this forecast, there is a 30 percent chance of rain today, and a healthy 50 percent chance on Friday. And since Apple makes some pretty amazing hardware and software, it’s difficult to doubt Apple. But in this case, the Apple weather app is just massively wrong. The rain chances today are not 30 percent, but rather about 3 percent (as the Space City Weather app, which is not flawless I will say, suggests). And while I would dearly love to be wrong, a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday is preposterous.

This has been a persistent forecast within Apple’s weather app for awhile now. I honestly don’t know why this is occurring because there is no credible modeling suggesting this will happen, and it entirely defies everything I know about meteorology given the current pattern. My only thought is that while AI and automated forecasts are promising, they still require some human curation. Which we endeavor to provide.

Thursday

Meanwhile, back in the real world, we’ve got another excessive heat warning today, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees and a heat index pushing past 110 degrees. The only notable change is that winds out of the south will be a little bit more pronounced, up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Friday

Slightly drier air could push us out of “excessive” heat territory into a simpler heat advisory, but it’s still going to be dang hot. Rain chances are in the sub-5 percent category.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with rain chances near zero percent.

Next week

Honestly, there’s not a whole lot of change in sight for next week as a ridge of high pressure remains dominant over our weather. Maybe, if I squint, there’s a bit of optimism for returning rain chances by the end of next week. But it’s not a bet I’m placing with confidence.

Good morning. Our overall pattern remains more or less the same, with high pressure leading to very hot weather for the next week, and quite possibly beyond. Today and Thursday could bring the worst of the weather, with very high dewpoints contributing to the heat.

We see this in the forecast for “wet bulb globe temperatures,” which factor in several variables to provide an overall guidance for how uncomfortable conditions will be. (I discussed these a bit more in depth on Monday) Temperatures for today and Thursday are forecast to be above 90 degrees, which means our weather will be extremely uncomfortable.

Wednesday

There is not much to say beyond the fact that temperatures will reach about 100 degrees, with sunny skies and stifling humidity, and modest southwest winds at about 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

Conditions will be much the same, although southerly winds may be a little higher, at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

With the influx of slightly drier air and winds gusting up to 20 mph, conditions might be slightly more tolerable outside. But temperatures will still be really hot, about 100 degrees for much of the region away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Yes, the weekend looks sunny and hot.

Next week

A series of atmospheric disturbances will push through the area later on Sunday and on Monday; and were we not under the influence of high pressure, these are the kinds of systems that would bring us a healthy chance of rain. However, due to generally sinking air over the region, I’d rate the chance of these disturbances at producing rain at about 10 percent. Still, it’s something to watch, as most of the rest of the forecast just looks to be unendingly hot, humid, and rain free.

This is bad for business, but as usual we’re going to be honest with you here. For the next few days, at least, you really do not need to check the daily forecast here at Space City Weather. We are in a persistent pattern of high-pressure dominated weather that will last for at least the next week, and quite possibly longer. This high anchored over the southwestern United States, is not going anywhere, any time soon.

The conditions that we’re going to experience through the middle of July are not atypical, per se, for this month. It is summer in Houston. It is hot. But the heat is going to be tenacious, with daily temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, and without any let up. Every day is going to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will barely fall to 80 degrees. And while there is a very slight rain chance this afternoon, overall chances will be 10 percent or less on most days. The entire metro area is under a heat advisory and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near or reaching 100 degrees for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but most areas will not see anything resembling rainfall. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

A similar day, albeit with even lower rain chances. Look for highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday until ???

From Thursday, through the weekend, and at least into the middle of next week we are looking at hot and sunny weather, driven persistent high pressure. This means mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and warm, humid nights. It is possible this pattern breaks somewhat by the middle or end of next week, but I would not hold my breath.