Eric Berger

Good morning and happy Labor Day. In honor of the holiday, this will be a fairly short post. After slight rain chances on Saturday and Sunday fizzled out, today offers our best hope of meaningful since July. The setup is pretty good, with the combination of ample moisture, daytime heating, and a fair amount of instability in the atmosphere. This is all being driven by an upper-level low pressure system to the north of our region.

As of 7:30 am CT, we are already seeing numerous showers just to the east of our region, from Bolivar Peninsula over to Lake Charles, Louisiana. Over the next few hours, these showers should build westward, closer to the Houston area. But that is not a guarantee you will see rainfall. I would say that areas to the east of Interstate 45 have about a 60 percent chance of seeing showers or thunderstorms today, with areas to the west 40 percent or perhaps even less, especially areas further inland.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely. A few lucky locations may pick up 1 inch of rain or more, but for the most part it should be measured in a few tenths of an inch. Of course many locations will not see any rain. Storms that do form, generally, will move from south to north.

Highs today will depend on the extent of rainfall and cloud cover this afternoon. Areas east of Interstate 45 may max out in the lower 90s, whereas areas further west may reach the upper 90s.

I expect that Tuesday will be similar, in terms of the setup, although I would expect slightly less storm coverage during the afternoon hours. Wednesday, too, will carry at least a 20 or 30 percent chance of showers.

The period of Thursday through Sunday quite hot again, as high pressure builds over the region. We’ll probably see highs in the upper 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Some areas may very well reach 100 degrees again. I am cautiously optimistic that this period, Thursday through Sunday, may be our last real fling of triple digit weather for 2023. No guarantees, but after that the temperature outlook does start to look a bit better.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a full forecast. Please enjoy your holiday safely, responsibly, and, if you’re lucky, with a measure of liquid gold from the skies.

According to data from the National Weather Service, the month of August finished with an extraordinary average temperature of 91.0 degrees. This is nearly 6 degrees higher than the “normal” average temperature for the month of August in Houston, 85.2 degrees.

Moreover, it exceeded the city’s warmest month on record—any month in the last 150 years, mind you. This previous record temperature. 90.4 degrees, was set during the absolutely torrid month of August 2011. Temperatures this August were, by any measure, extreme and not-normal. The brown area in the graphic below shows the normal range of temperatures.

Along with this extreme heat, we recorded just 0.01 inch of rain during the month of August at the city’s official station, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That’s one-hundredth of an inch. This was less rain than even the 0.09 inches recorded in August 2011, but second driest on record to a “trace” of rainfall recorded in 1927. The good news is that while our heat will continue, albeit at not as crazy levels, we do have some improving rain chances in the days ahead.

Friday

It’s not going to rain today, as we’re still under the influence of a weak front. This means we’re going to see sunny skies, with highs of around 100 degrees for much of the area. But we’re still enjoying some lower humidity this morning, and that should carry into the afternoon hours. However as light northeasterly winds turn easterly, humidity levels will rise. Lows tonight should drop into the upper 70s.

Saturday

This will be a sunny, hot, and somewhat humid day with highs near 100 degrees for the area. As moisture levels rise we’ll see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms near the coast. I’d say areas along and south of Interstate 10 have about a one-in-three chance of seeing a passing shower on Saturday. Skies will be mostly sunny, otherwise. Lows on Saturday night may briefly drop below 80 degrees.

Sunday and Labor Day

Here’s where the rain chances peak. Rainfall odds for much of the area are probably about 50 percent on Sunday, and 70 percent on Labor Day. Again, when it’s not raining (which should be most of the time), skies are going to be mostly sunny. So these will be passing showers as an upper-level low pressure system over Louisiana perturbs our atmosphere. The further one lives away from the coast, and the further west, the lower the rain chances and accumulations. So while I think coastal areas may end up with accumulations of about 0.5 inch, most areas further inland probably will receive less. Temperatures both days should be in the mid- to upper-90s, and moderated of course by passing showers.

Next week

Tuesday and Wednesday will both have a decent chance of rain showers, perhaps 40 percent each day, but then we’re probably going back to the upper 90s for the second half of next week with a hot and mostly rain-free pattern. We’ll probably remain mostly that way through the middle of September.

We’ll have an update for you on Labor Day morning about the area’s rain chances. Have a wonderful holiday weekend.

Good morning. I don’t want to provide false hope to anyone, but the reality of the matter is that by Sunday, conditions for our region will start to change and favor at least the possibility of some rain showers across the metro area. We’re also looking at temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s, rather than really crazy temperatures of 105 degrees or above. So, as we move into September, we probably should embrace the small victories.

Thursday

For now, there won’t be much change. After a weak front moved into the region earlier this week we’ve been seeing some drier air and it’s made for some decently nice evenings and mornings, with lower humidity and slightly lower temperatures. Daytimes remain really hot, but this is partly because dry air warms more quickly. We’ve been seeing some afternoon humidities in the 20 percents, and that should continue. Look for highs today to again be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with low humidity. Overnight lows should drop into the 70s, with light northeasterly winds. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances nil.

Friday

Another day a lot like Thursday. Humidity levels will be a bit higher, but not much. So for Houston, in summer, it will still feel pretty dry.

Saturday

This will be a bit of a transition day, with mostly sunny skies and our formerly northerly wind shifting to come from the east. This will help start to raise humidity levels. Coastal areas may see about a 20 percent chance of rain, but for most of us it’s just going to be hot and mostly sunny, with highs of around 100 degrees.

Sunday and Monday

It’s Labor Day weekend, so the majority of people reading this will have Monday off from work as well. (Don’t worry, we’ll still have a report for you on Monday). By Sunday we should see high pressure start to retreat well to the north, and this will open up our region to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the potential for rain showers on Sunday and Monday. I’ll put chances for both days at about 60 percent for areas along and southeast of Interstate 69/Highway 59; and 40 to 50 percent for areas further inland. In terms of accumulations, we’re probably looking at a few tenths of an inch, give or take. But I would say that is far from set in stone. When it’s not raining, and it certainly won’t be most of the time, we can expect mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper-90s.

Next week

Rain chances look to hold on through Wednesday, after which we may return to a mostly sunny pattern, with days in the upper 90s to about 100 degrees. There are still no indications of the season’s first real cold front, but it’s probably too early to have an expectation of one.

Tropics

After ravaging the Big Bend area of Florida, as well as Georgia and parts of the Carolinas, Tropical Storm Idalia is moving into the Atlantic Ocean and away from the United States. Beyond that there is a lot of noise in the Atlantic Ocean, but nothing that really need concern us in Texas, or indeed, the rest of the United States. Full coverage of all of this can be found on The Eyewall.

Good morning. Temperatures have reached the 60s for some inland locations, with much of the rest of Houston in the low- to mid-70s. With lower dew points it feels, dare I say, almost sort of pleasant outside? Thanks to a front that pushed offshore earlier this week we’ll continue to see drier air through about Friday morning. But because dry air warms quickly, we’re still going to see hot days, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Evenings will cool off more quickly, however.

Due to the lower humidity, and somewhat breezy conditions, a “red flag” warning is in effect for pretty much the entire region. This combination of winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will create the potential for explosive fire growth. Please avoid all outside burning. Do not toss lit cigarette butts outside. Report wildfires to the nearest fire department or law enforcement office.

Wednesday

High temperatures today will reach about 100 degrees for much of the metro area, but with dew points this afternoon dropping into the 50s, it genuinely will be a fairly dry heat. Close your eyes, and you’ll be able to pretend you’re in Arizona. Skies will be sunny. Winds will be out of the northeast, mostly, today at 10 mph with higher gusts to about 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night should again drop into the 70s for much of the area.

Thursday and Friday

These days will also see a fair bit of drier air, although dew points will slowly be coming back up. Skies will be sunny, with highs of about 100 degrees. Again, mornings and nights should be fairly pleasant, at least for this time of year.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see more mostly sunny skies, and highs of around 100 degrees. Humidity, alas, will be back. However, along with it we’ll see some decent rain chances. Coastal areas probably have about a 30 percent chance of a shower on Saturday, and most of the region that much of a shot on Sunday.

Labor Day and beyond

Rain chances likely peak on Labor Day, with perhaps a 40 or 50 percent chance of seeing a passing shower. These are not, for the most part, likely to be drenching and long-lasting rains. But any showers are welcome, and they’ll also cool the air. Look for highs in the upper 90s on the holiday.

Most of next week should see continued highs in the vicinity of the upper 90s, with decent rain chances on the order of 30 percent daily, or so. High pressure will be far enough to our west that some sea breeze storms will be possible. There are still no signs of truly widespread rain, which is needed to break the region’s drought, alas.

Tropics

Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, Hurricane Idalia has blown up into a Category 4 storm overnight. Idalia is about to make landfall in Taylor County, FL, with catastrophic storm surge in the Big Bend and wind, tide, and rain impacts spreading north into Georgia and the Carolinas later. We will have full and ongoing coverage of the storm today on The Eyewall. Beyond Idalia there are no areas of concern in the tropics, as far as impacts to the United States and Caribbean Islands are concerned.