Good morning. Just jumping in here with a quick Sunday morning update. Yes, a line of fairly strong thunderstorms moved through the Houston area during the overnight hours. No, we did not anticipate them being quite so strong, or arriving quite so early. Sorry for the late-night wake-up call.
The good news is that the overnight storms sapped the atmosphere of much of its energy, and this should lessen thunderstorm activity today. I would expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail, with highs of about 90 degrees or just above, and moderate to high humidity. Your overall chances of seeing a shower or a thunderstorm this afternoon is probably about 30 percent. These rain chances will continue this evening, and during the overnight hours, but at this point I don’t see much sign of a similar flare-up of storms late tonight like the region experienced on Saturday night.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
With that being said, the overall pattern this week favors additional showers and thunderstorms through about Wednesday, as disturbances move down from the north into our region. I don’t have much confidence right now in whether these will occur during the daytime, along with atmospheric heating, or at nighttime. Rain chances will go down, and temperatures up, toward the end of the week.
Good morning. Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will last for the next six months. It’s also a big day for Matt and myself, as we’re launching a new website devoted to tropical weather in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. It’s called The Eyewall, and you can head over there now to check it out, and find out more information about what we’re doing. But I’m sure some readers will have questions about what this means for Space City Weather, and that’s what I’m going to address now.
Is Space City Weather going to change?
No.
Like not at all?
Like not at all. Matt and I are 100 percent committed to Space City Weather, and improving it every way we can. To that end, look for an updated version of our app soon, that squashes some bugs and delivers the much-asked for dark mode feature in addition to other goodies.
Why are you doing this?
There are two primary reasons. One, much of the current national hurricane coverage is sensationalized, and we think there is room for a different, no-hype approach. And two, we are frequently asked for local sites during hurricane season. (I.e. my mom is in Destin, where can she get this kind of coverage for Tropical Storm X or Hurricane Y) Well, now we’ve got an answer. We’re counting on you to tell friends and family beyond Texas.
Will there be cross-over between the two sites?
A little bit. The Eyewall will publish a “Daily Tropical Outlook” every weekday, and weekends as needed. There will be other hurricane content as well, and lots of coverage of active storms threatening land. Once a week we will cross-publish one of these “tropical outlooks” on Space City Weather (i.e. like with our weekly tropics report).
What happens if a hurricane threatens Texas?
For Space City Weather we cover the storm as usual. The local material would then be cross-posted onto The Eyewall. But our intent is that for readers of Space City Weather there will be no noticeable changes. We will not be publishing content from the Eyewall about storms affecting other parts of the country, or Mexico and the Caribbean Islands here, although we may link to it from time to time on Space City Weather.
Do you have a sponsor?
Not yet. Really, this is an experiment. Matt is taking on a big extra burden with this, and while we’re going to have some contributors, we want to see if this is sustainable. We also want to see if there are readers for this. Maybe it flops. Maybe it doesn’t. Really, we just want to give people some comfort in a terribly trying and traumatic time in their lives. We’ll see.
Now, onto the forecast…
Thursday
Our weather for the next few days will be guided by a modestly strong ridge of high pressure. This means we’re going to see warm and sunny weather. Highs today should reach about 90 degrees, with light southeast winds. One nice aspect of the weather is that dewpoints have not reached hair-melting levels yet, so the humidity won’t be oppressive. Lows tonight drop into the low 70s. Rain chances today are about 10 percent.
Friday
A little warmer, with highs in the low 90s. Otherwise, pretty much the same as Thursday.
Saturday
Another day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. For areas far north of Houston, likely even north of Conroe, there is a slight chance of some rain showers later in the day.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)
Sunday and Monday
As high pressure eases off, skies will become more cloudy in response to rising atmospheric moisture levels, and our rain chances will go up. Both Sunday and Monday should see about a 50 percent chance of rainfall, with accumulations in the order of 0.25 to 1 inch. Overall chances are probably a bit higher north of Interstate 10, but this far out I don’t have great confidence in that. The clouds should bring highs back down to around 90 degrees on both days.
Later next week
Rain chances continue for a few more days, helping to tamp down high temperatures. But it’s possible that we’re headed toward the low- or even mid-90s by later next week. Hello, June!
Good morning. Houston remains just on the edge of summer weather, but we’re still not quite there. For much of the area, low temperatures are still dropping to around 70 degrees at night. And while daytime highs are reaching near 90 degrees, we’ve not reached the point of dog’s breath humidity either. That is coming, for sure.
Since today is the last day of May, I’d say it’s been a nice month. It is certainly possible for us to be seeing days in the mid-90s and sultry humidity in late May. But not this year, and it looks like May will end up with a slightly below normal temperature in 2023. I for one am enjoying this not-quite-summer weather.
What I’m saying is that May could be a lot hotter. This year, it’s been rather temperate. (NOAA)
Wednesday
Nearly all of the Houston metro area stayed dry on Tuesday, but there were some fairly strong thunderstorms on the periphery, including near Katy and Conroe, and well to the east of the region over Beaumont. So the potential is out there, and the atmospheric pattern will support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated areas picking up 0.5 to 1 inch or more of rain. About 20 percent of the area is likely to see rain. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, but generally from the southeast. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
Both of these will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 90 degrees. Rain chances are not entirely zero, but they’re probably not higher than 10 percent each day. Lows drop into the low 70s, generally.
Saturday
I’m reasonably confident that the first half of the weekend is going to see a continuation of our mostly sunny, and warmish pattern. Expect highs of around 90 degrees. Rain chances, again, will be fairly low, so provided you’ve got protection from the Sun any outdoor activities look good to go.
Don’t expect much variation in temperatures through the weekend. (Weather Bell)
Sunday and Monday
I have slightly less confidence heading into the back end of the weekend. High pressure is going to back off somewhat, and this will open the atmosphere up to better rain chances. However, there is very little consistency or agreement in the forecast models, so the forecast is pretty fuzzy. Broadly speaking, I’d peg rain chances at 30 to 50 percent each day, with accumulations of perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain. Skies should be a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs again around 90 degrees.
Next week
By Tuesday or so, I expect high pressure to start building again over the region. This should shut down the potential for rainfall, and may nudge highs upward, into the low- to mid-80s. But I’m not ready to lock that forecast in yet.
Houston’s weather this week, aside from scattered thunderstorm chances today, should be pretty boring. But boring in the summer is not necessarily bad! This sure beats early season heat or, as we will be reminded this week with the official season start on June 1, hurricanes. By the way, we’ve got some news coming about the Atlantic hurricane season coming that you will want to check out on Thursday.
Tuesday
The region saw scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day, with some fairly isolated regions experiencing heavy rainfall. The pattern will be similar today, with the best chances for rainfall running from the mid-morning to mid-afternoon hours. Much of the area will not see rain, but a few isolated areas may quickly pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain under slow-moving storms. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny with a high temperature of about 90 degrees. Winds will be variable, and light. Low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees.
Expect some isolated showers and thunderstorms to pop up later today across Houston. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
A similar day to Tuesday, albeit with less atmospheric moisture to work with. This should knock back rain chances to about 20 percent during the afternoon hours. Skies should be mostly sunny for the most part, with highs of around 90 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
As high pressure builds over the region it will squeeze rain chances down to around 10 percent each day. The days will be remarkable similar, otherwise, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 90 degrees. The air will remain, for early June at least, somewhat dry. Afternoon dewpoints in the mid-60s will not exactly feel spring-like, but they won’t be sultry and summer-like, either. That, no doubt, is coming soon.
Saturday and Sunday
As the high pressure ridge backs off this weekend, we should see rain chances increase modestly. But at this point I don’t have much confidence in whether that means a daily chance of 20 percent or 40 percent. For the most part, I’d anticipate at least partly if not mostly sunny skies with highs of around 90 degrees.
Houston’s weather this week is steady-eddie as temperatures go. (Weather Bell)
Next week
I don’t have great confidence in next week’s forecast, I’m afraid. I do think rain chances will increase a bit, starting either Sunday or Monday. There are also some scenarios in which we start to push toward the mid-90s by some point next week, but such a summer heat wave is not locked in stone.
