Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s stormy, spring-like weather will continue with two systems affecting our weather in the days ahead. One comes early on Thursday, and the other and soon as late Friday night, but there remains a lot of uncertainty about the details. In the middle, we’ll also have some sunny weather and, occasionally, some drier air.

Wednesday

Today will bring mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures warming to about 80 degrees, and fairly muggy air. A very few, isolated light showers are possible today but overall I would peg rain chances at about 10 percent. This rather sedate weather should begin to change overnight, as a cold front approaches our region.

The timing of all this remains a bit uncertain, but around 2 to 4 am on Thursday morning a line of storms should move into the area of College Station and then progress through the Houston area in the time frame of 4 to 8 am, and push off the coast by around 10 am-ish. The best chances for rainfall will be along and north of Interstate 10, but I think the entire metro area has a shot at receiving heavy rainfall. Overall accumulations will likely range from 0.25 to 1.5 inch of rain, and there is enough instability to produce hail and damaging winds. So we’re definitely looking at the potential for some late-night mischief in Houston.

Thursday

Obviously, depending on timing, the above conditions may impact the morning commute. You’ll want to check weather conditions before venturing out early on Thursday. After the front moves through, skies should clear during the afternoon hours, with temperatures reaching about 80 degrees. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees on Thursday night with mostly clear skies.

Friday

The onshore flow returns pretty quickly on Friday, so this will be a warm and somewhat humid day, with highs in the mid-80s. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-60s ahead of our next chance for storms.

Saturday

Well, the weekend forecast is unfortunately not all that clear as the models have diverged pretty hard on the the evolution of cold front and an associated upper level low pressure system. The bottom line is that This area of disturbed weather will approach our region on Friday night. After that? The GFS model pushes things through fairly quickly, and largely ends rain chances on Saturday morning. The European model, however, shows the upper level low getting hung up, keeping on and off rain chances going into Sunday morning.

The most likely outcome is a more fast-moving system, I believe, such that rains end on Saturday morning some time, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s on Saturday afternoon with northerly winds gusting up to about 25 mph. But we now have to account for the possibility of shower activity lingering on Saturday and Saturday night, a probability I would put at about 30 percent. Lows on Saturday night will also depend on how fast the aforementioned upper level low and front move, so right now I’ll ballpark them in the upper 50s.

Sunday and beyond

Regardless of what happens on Saturday, we should see clearing skies on Sunday, and drier air. Look for highs in the upper 70s and another cool night before a warming trend early next week. We can probably expect highs in the mid-80s for most of next week, with the return of some clouds and pretty decent humidity by mid-week.

Good morning, and I hope this Tuesday is terrific for you. As for our what to expect from Mother Nature, Houston faces a pattern ahead with a little bit of unsettled weather, a little bit of warmer weather, and a little bit of fine, springtime weather. So it goes for April.

Tuesday

Temperatures are warmer this morning, having bottomed out at about 60 degrees for most of the region except for the coast where conditions are warmer. Humidity levels will continue to tick upward today as light winds turn easterly. Expect partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to about 80 degrees. The more difficult question is rainfall. I would say the area has about a 30 percent chance of mostly light, scattered showers today.

As we get into this evening and the overnight hours, things get a little more interesting. There is plenty of moisture for the atmosphere to work with, but it’s not clear how much instability there will be. The bottom line, I think, is that there is about 30 or 40 percent chance of rain this evening and during the overnight hours. For most of us, this will be a non-event. But for a few neighborhoods, at least, there likely will be some fairly decent thunderstorms. So while the vast majority of the area is probably a 1 or a 2 on the excitable dog index, a few areas may be closer to a 6 or 7 later today and tonight.

Wednesday

This day will be partly sunny and warmer, with highs in the low 80s. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent. A word of warning if you’re traveling north on Interstate 35 Wednesday. A front will be moving through the state, and North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, faces a healthy risk of thunderstorms and severe weather. I don’t think these storms will propagate all the way south to the Houston area, however. Lows on Wednesday night will be warm, dropping only into the upper 60s.

Thursday

A weak front pushes into Houston on Thursday morning, and we probably will see a round of showers with it. How much activity is going to occur is a little fuzzy, but my guess is that rain chances will be highest from about midnight to noon on Thursday, with clearing skies afterward and highs around 80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

This looks like a mostly sunny day, with highs popping up into the mid-80s, with slightly drier air.

Saturday

A second, stronger front looks set to arrive late Friday night or Saturday morning. The models are a bit unclear, but it is possible that a line of showers accompanies this front. In any case, this looks to clear out pretty quickly on Saturday morning. The story afterward is going to be northerly winds behind the front—something to definitely consider if you’re participating in the MS-150 bike ride. Highs should reach the mid-70s on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies. Winds could gust up to about 30 mph during the afternoon hours. With clear skies look for lows to drop into the 50s on Saturday night. There won’t be too many more of these chilly nights this season, so if that’s your jam, you best get jamming this weekend.

Sunday

A pleasant, sunny day with highs likely in the low 80s. As the onshore flow returns, Sunday night will be a touch warmer, with lows perhaps around 60 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs somewhere in the 80s. It looks like the next chance of rain will return on Tuesday or Wednesday.

After a surprisingly chilly Sunday, temperatures are fairly cold this morning across the state of Texas, with parts of the Houston dropping to about 50 degrees in the wake of a front. The region will see another decent cold snap this weekend as we reach the end of April. Knowing what is coming over the next five months, it’s nice to see April doing spring-like things.

Monday

We will see mostly cloudy skies today because, just above the surface, winds have already turned to come from offshore, pumping moisture back into the atmosphere. However, at the surface winds will remain from the northeast for the most part today, and this will keep our air reasonably dry, with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures tonight will only drop down to around 60 degrees with this warmer flow taking hold at the surface.

Tuesday

The aforementioned moisture in the atmosphere will combine with an atmospheric disturbance to produce a healthy chance of showers, and possibly some thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I think any rain will be fairly scattered during the daytime on Tuesday, with partly sunny skies helping to push daytime highs up to nearly 80 degrees. Showers may become more widespread Tuesday evening and overnight. While we cannot rule out a chance of severe weather in the Houston metro area, including hail and damaging winds, the more pronounced threat will be to our west, particularly along the Interstate 35 corridor. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the mid- to upper-60s.

Wednesday

Never a dull day this week. Why? Because while Wednesday will start out with fairly calm weather and partly sunny weather, a front will be approaching from the west. Again we’ll not be in the bullseye for high storm chances—those will be off to the north this time—but we probably can expect some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night. Expect daytime highs in the low 80s, with overnight temperatures in the 60s.

Thursday

After any showers associated with the front clear during the morning hours, we’ll probably see a partly sunny day, with a smidgeon of drier air, and highs in he upper 70s.

Friday

Thursday’s front will be short-lived, so look for highs to push back up into the lower 80s, with nighttime temperatures in the low 60s. Another, slightly stronger, front looks to push in on Friday night setting the stage for a cooler weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will feel distinctly spring-like even though we’re coming to the end of April. In the wake of the front, look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, likely with clearing skies. Lows Saturday night will probably bottom out in the mid-50s, and Sunday will top out at around 80 degrees with sunny skies.

If you’re riding the MS-150 bike event out of Houston this weekend, the one concern is winds. It’s too early to be certain, but I think there probably will be decently strong winds from the north on Saturday, perhaps gusting to 25 mph. Similar, but less gusty winds, will be possible on Sunday. Fortunately the likelihood of rain or any storms this weekend is very low at this point.

Next week

The start of next week should see a warming trend, with temperatures eventually getting into the mid- to upper-80s, probably. Then? Perhaps some sort of front to cool things down. We’ll see.

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