Stormy pattern will gradually shift to a sunnier one for our region

Good morning. After a wet weekend that left several area rivers and bayous near or over tops of their banks, and saturated area soils, our region will begin to transition to a somewhat drier pattern overall. However, a healthy chance of storms will remain today for areas along and west of Interstate 45 before our skies turn sunnier on Tuesday and then remain that way for most of the remainder of the week.

Monday

The problem for today is that our atmosphere remains fairly moist, and we’re not quite done with atmospheric disturbances. This should allow showers and thunderstorms to fire up southwest of Houston early this afternoon, and then lift northward into western and central parts of the city, before exiting to the north by around sunset. Most areas west of Interstate 45 will likely see around 0.5 inch of rain, which is totally manageable. But some areas could pick up 1 to 3 inches beneath stronger thunderstorms, and this may briefly back-up streets. For this reason, I’m going to keep a Stage 1 flood alert going for the western half of the Houston region, basically areas west of I-45.

Excessive rain outlook for Monday in Houston. (NOAA)

Skies will otherwise be mostly cloudy, and for most areas this should limit high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will generally be light at about 5 mph out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston as rain chances recede to near zero.

Tuesday

A weak cool front arrives on Monday night, and this will shift our winds to come from the west or northwest. Unfortunately, it will also provide a bit of instability that will help produce one more round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. While I don’t expect these to be as widespread as the rain on Monday, I think there’s still a solid 30 to 50 percent chance of showers on Tuesday afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Rain chances drop back to around 20 percent, with mostly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. Look for highs in the mid- to upper 80s during the afternoon and, for some inland areas, lows dropping into the mid- to upper 60s on Wednesday night. That is some May cold front action for you, Houston!

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Lows will drop into the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is—dare I say it on a Monday morning, up in the air? There looks to be a second front coming this weekend, and while it’s too early to say for sure, I think there’s a decent chance it pushes all the way through Houston and off the coast on Saturday. This could bring some scattered showers with it. For now let’s ballpark partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s. If the front makes it, I wouldn’t rule out some lows in the mid-60s for most of the metro area early next week. We’ll see.

A soggy Mother’s Day is in store for Houston before the threat of heavy rainfall ends

Good morning. Alas we’re seeing an atmospheric disturbance slowly move northward through the region this morning, and it is driving a band a strong thunderstorms throughout the central part of the metro area. Given the ongoing abundance of low pressure and atmospheric moisture, we’re going to see one more day with conditions favorable for heavy rainfall today.

Areas in red are most at risk for heavy rainfall on Sunday. (NOAA)

Most of the region is likely to pick up and additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall today, so we’re not concerned about significant flooding for most of the area. But we will see some areas with higher totals, and there definitely will be the potential for streets to briefly back up beneath strong and slow-moving thunderstorms. For this reason we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert through the afternoon hours in Houston. We expect the disturbance to continue moving north, and eventually pull away from the area this evening. Due to the clouds and persistent rainfall, high temperatures today likely will top out at about 80 degrees.

Rain chances will hang around after today, but they’re going to go down starting Monday, and the threat of heavy rainfall will drop accordingly. We should start to see the return of a fair amount of sunshine by Tuesday or Wednesday, with slightly drier air from a weak front.

Chance of heavy rain increases for this weekend, necessitating a Stage 1 flood alert

Good morning. As anticipated, a line of strong storms has developed to the west of Houston this morning, roughly from College Station all the way south to Corpus Christi. We expect these storms to continue to build slowly to the east, and into Houston later this morning and the afternoon hours. There remains a lot of uncertainty about how much punch these storms will have as they progress closer to, and into the Houston metro area. But we now have enough concerns about the potential for heavy rain to issue a Stage 1 flood alert out of concern for street flooding today and tonight.

The most problematic time for rainfall will be from the mid-morning hours today through the afternoon. However, at this time we can’t rule out the additional development of showers tonight, and on Sunday, as a series of disturbances plow through our moist atmosphere. Please check the radar before heading out, and if you have outdoor activities on the schedule for this weekend, have a back-up plan. And since it’s Mothers Day weekend, I know many of you do have plans.

Areas at risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night. (NOAA)

Overall, I expect most of the region to see 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall this weekend, but areas west and southwest of Houston have a greater risk of heavy rainfall, and isolated areas may see 2 to 6 inches of rainfall. Due to the aforementioned uncertainty about this weekend’s weather, Matt and I will continue to keep an eye on things. We apologize to all the moms out there for the lousy weather this weekend.

Houston’s weather will calm down a bit, but rain chances will hang around for the weekend

Phew—after two days of warily watching the radar, we can take a break. Rain chances today and Friday will fall back into the 10 or 20 percent range, and we may even briefly see some sunshine during the afternoons. However, as an upper-level low pressure system evolves over Central and West Texas this weekend, it will create conditions favorable for rain there.

This means two things for our side of the state. First of all, areas west of Interstate 45 will see reasonably high rain chances in the range of 50 or 70 percent on both weekend days. And secondly, if your Mothers Day Weekend plans call for travel into the Hill Country, conditions look incredibly wet, with 4 to 8 inches of rainfall along the I-35 corridor and to the west of Austin and San Antonio. This is bound to lead to flooding and other issues this weekend there.

NOAA rainfall outlook for now through Monday night. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Skies are cloudy this morning, but we should see some partial clearing this afternoon, and that should allow high temperatures to push up into the upper-80s. Winds will be light, out of the south. And the rain? Well, chances are about 10 percent that we see some very light showers. The air will be sticky, and lows tonight will only drop into the mid- to upper-70s. So yeah, pretty muggy.

Friday

Friday will be rather similar to Thursday, albeit with slightly stronger southerly winds, gusting up to perhaps 20 mph. Friday night will be warm again, as temperatures may drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Both days will see highs in the mid-80s. Saturday is probably mostly cloudy, but Sunday may live up to its name with a little more sunshine. The question, as usual, is rainfall chances. Both days have about a 50 percent chance, and the further west of Houston you live, the greater overall chances there will be. Much of Houston probably will see less than one-half inch across both days, but areas such as Katy or College Station are at risk for 1 inch or more.

The temperature for the week ahead is mostly moderate for May. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Monday should be a touch warmer, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives Monday night. You should set your expectations accordingly, and by that I mean that this front is going to bring some (very slightly) drier air to the region, but won’t modify temperatures too much. Highs for most of next week look to be in the mid- to upper-80s, with partly sunny skies, and lows in the low 70s. Rain chances remain, but overall they don’t look too high, or bring too much of the wet stuff to us.