Eric Berger

Good morning. A cold front is sagging southward toward our region, and this will set the stage for several cooler and rainy days. It certainly will not rain continuously from now through Saturday morning, but there will be periods of moderate and potentially heavy rainfall. Some areas will see accumulations of rainfall, over time, that may produce some street flooding. For this reason we have initiated a Stage 1 flood alert from noon today through Friday night.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm and humid this morning, with lows having dropped only into the mid-70s. The front will reach areas northwest of Houston by around noon, push into the city this afternoon, and reach the coast late this afternoon or early evening. I expect to see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front, but the bigger concern will likely come tonight and later this week. Why? Because the front is going to get hung up right along the coast, and as a result should help to generate nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms over time. Temperatures today should reach the low 80s ahead of the front, and drop into the low 60s tonight.

Thursday and Friday

The period from Thursday morning through Friday night is when we’re most concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. I wish I could be more precise in terms of impacts, but the short-term modeling is not terribly consistent with where the heaviest rainfall will set up. As a result, we’re going to have to continue to predict widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, with higher isolated totals.

I noted above that our primary concern is stationary storms, which this kind of setup—springtime, stalled front, plenty of moisture, and atmospheric disturbances—favors. For most of us, the rain totals should be completely manageable. Soils are reasonably dry, and the rains will be spread out over two days. But some locations will very likely see street flooding, so be weather aware the next couple of days. Highs on both days will be in the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Saturday

Fortunately, we’re increasingly confident that this mess is going to move out by Saturday morning, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Rain chances will be quite low after the morning, perhaps only 10 percent. Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

The same goes for Easter Sunday, in the sense that we expect the day to be rain-free. We also should see some partially clearing skies. So look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, therefore, with a splash of sunshine. With dewpoints around 60 degrees, the air will also feel decently dry. So all in all, it should be a rather nice holiday.

Next week

We have no weather concerns for next week. The region should see a slow warming trend such that temperatures reach the mid-80s toward the end of the week, with humidity levels creeping back up.

Good morning. Today will be the region’s last “hot” day for awhile, with temperatures in the upper 80s. A cold front will arrive on Wednesday to usher in several cooler and wetter days for the region. Because of the potential for rainfall accumulations over time, we have issued a Stage 1 flood alert for the period of noon on Wednesday through Friday. This means you can anticipate the potential for at least some nuisance street flooding. I do expect the rainfall to end in time for Easter Sunday, by which point the weather should be fairly pleasant.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly cloudy today with a pronounced southerly wind, at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Highs will reach the mid-80s, at least, with plenty of humidity. Winds will continue through most of the overnight hours, with low temperatures only dropping into the mid-70s for most.

Wednesday

The morning will start out warm and cloudy. It now appears that the cold front will not reach central Houston until around noon or the early afternoon hours. There will probably be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front as it moves through on Wednesday and pushes just off the coast. While there is the possibility of heavy rainfall during this time, it is important to note that I do not think this will be the “main event” when it comes to rain this weekend. That probably will come on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s after the front’s passage, and down to around 60 degrees on Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will serve as the focus for heaviest rainfall as the aforementioned front more or less gets hung up right along the coast. Stalled fronts, which open the door for atmospheric disturbances, have historically been rainmakers for Houston (Tax Day floods, anyone?). Precisely where this front stalls out is not yet determinable, but that will be where we can expect the heaviest rain. Highs, generally, will be in the 60s.

For now I’m going to ballpark rain widespread rain totals of 2 to 6 inches of rainfall this week, with higher isolated totals. Most of this will come sometime on Thursday and Friday. There won’t be continuous rainfall during this period, but there is the potential for at-times heavy rainfall that could cause some street flooding—hence the issuance of a Stage 1 flood alert. This basically means that you need to be weather aware before venturing out. It probably will be fine, but check to make sure. Matt and I will be covering the heavy rainfall as much as needed.

Saturday

We’re still going to see about a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday, but things should be winding down as the stalled front finally gets un-stalled and moves away. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 70 degrees. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s.

Sunday

By Easter Sunday we’re down to about a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain. Skies will probably start out cloudy, but by the afternoon we could see some sunshine peaking out. Highs will likely reach the mid- to upper-70s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

Overall our weather next week looks comparatively calm, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and lows somewhere in the 60s. Humidity returns, but at this point it looks like dewpoints will not be impressively high. So, not bad for mid-April?

Good morning. This week will offer something for everyone. We’re going to start off with some of this year’s warmest weather so far, with inland areas of the region likely to hitting 90 degrees this afternoon. Then on Wednesday morning a cold front will push into the region and stall along this coast. This will destabilize the atmosphere and lead to a prolonged period of on-and-off shower and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday through Saturday.

While there is no one focus for particularly heavy rainfall during the second half of this week, there is the potential for 1 to 2 inches each day and night, and over time this may lead to some street flooding. For this reason we are issuing a Stage 1 Flood alert for the period from Wednesday through Saturday afternoon. This means we are likely to see nuisance street flooding, for the most part. If the data changes, we may need to adjust the alert warning, but for now we expect Stage 1 to cover things.

Monday

Are you ready for some heat? With high pressure in place and a warm southerly flow, temperatures will warm into the upper-80s for most of the region. Whether you reach 90 degrees will depend on how far you are from the coast, and the extent to which the Sun emerges from behind the clouds today. Most areas inland of Interstate 10 have a good chance of hitting 90. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. Clouds return this evening, with lows dropping only into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

This will be another warm and humid day, although mostly cloudy skies should limit high temperatures to the upper 80s. Winds out of the south will be noticeable, perhaps gusting to 25 mph. Expect another warm night.

Wednesday

Although the timing is yet a bit uncertain, a cold front will reach the Houston metro area during the late morning hours or around noon on Wednesday. It looks like this front, with a line of showers and thunderstorms, will push just offshore and then simply stall for a few days. This will open up the region to a series of disturbances through the end of the week. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s, roughly, as the front passes, with overnight lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday night through Saturday

The next three nights and days will bring an elevated chance of rainfall. Totals will vary widely and are as yet uncertain, but most locations will probably see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas seeing more. At this time it looks like rain accumulations will be highest in the tier of counties just inland from the coast—Fort Bend, Harris, and Liberty Counties. We are issuing a Stage 1 Flood Alert at this time because our region’s dry soils should be able to handle rainfall over a three-day period. Some street flooding is possible, certainly, especially toward the end of the week as accumulations mount. We’ll be watching the situation closely in case we need to elevate the flood alert level.

In terms of temperatures, we are likely to see highs in the upper 60s through Saturday, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We won’t see much, if any, sunshine until Sunday.

Sunday

Fortunately for those concerned about Easter Sunday, it does look like this weather system should move off to the east by Saturday afternoon or night. That’s cutting it close, but for now it looks as though rain chances will be low on Sunday, with the possibility for partly sunny skies by the afternoon. For now I’ll ballpark high temperatures around 80 degrees, with moderate humidity.

Next week

Most of next week is likely to see highs in the low 80s, with lows in the mid-60s. Humidity levels do not look unreasonable for mid-April. We should have several days, at least, to dry out after rains this week.

We are looking at sort of a weird forecast for Houston in the days ahead. Read on for all the details, but basically we’re first going to get hot, and then we’re going to cool down and probably see some pretty decent rainfall. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Friday

Today’s forecast is pretty straightforward. With a warm and gusty southerly flow in place we’re going to see temperatures bump up into the mid-80s, with some areas likely reaching the upper 80s depending on how many breaks in the clouds there are. There will be a slight chance of light rain during the daytime. Conditions this evening will be warm.

A cold front will approach Houston this evening, and this may bring some strong thunderstorms well to the north of the metro area, including locations such as College Station or Conroe. (So if you’re driving to place like Dallas this afternoon or evening, please take care). But further south, we should be protected by a capping inversion that prevents the development of such storms. Could the cap break somewhat for areas north of Interstate 10 late this evening? It is possible, but the chances are probably on the order of 10 percent.

Saturday

By Saturday morning drier air associated with the front will be moving into Houston. And this is going to be something because, for about 12 hours, dewpoints are going to absolutely plummet. This will feel nice, in the form of low humidity. But it’s also going to allow temperatures to spike. If we get partly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon, we will probably see high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees as dry air warms more efficiently than humid air. This dry air will be pulling back by Saturday night, as the front lifts inland, but I still think we’ll see low temperatures in the 60s for all but the immediate coast.

Sunday

This day should be partly to mostly cloudy, with returning humidity and highs in the low 80s. There is a slight chance of showers during the afternoon hours, but I don’t think we’ll see much (if any) precipitation.

Monday and Tuesday of next week

Welcome back, summer! With a warm southerly flow in place and partly sunny skies, both of these days have a solid chance to hit 90 degrees, or even a bit higher, across the entire region. It’s going to feel hot after five months of cooler weather. Rain chances are near zero.

The rest of next week

Some sort of front is going to drag into the area next week and then probably get hung up near the coast or offshore. This will do two things. First of all it should knock highs back into the upper 70s or so, and take a bit of the sting out of the humidity. Secondly, it will act in concert with some atmospheric disturbances to produce a healthy chance of rain from from Wednesday through Saturday. The details are to be worked out, but we’re probably looking at something like 50 percent rain chances each day. The Easter forecast is still very fuzzy, but I’d ballpark a high of around 80 degrees, with low-to-moderate rain chances. We’ll have all the details about that on Monday morning for you.