Eric Berger

Good morning. So far we have eased into summertime this year. For the entire month of May, temperatures ended up slightly below normal. And the first several days of June trended cooler as well. That party, I am sorry to say, should end this week.

By Thursday or Friday, as high pressure builds over the region with a warm southerly flow, I expect high temperatures to reach the mid-90s and stay there for awhile. This will be the beginning of what I like to call “Mid summer” in Houston, the second of our four phases of summer.

Monday

But we’re not there yet. In the absence of high pressure, and with a moderately disturbed atmosphere, we’ll see decent rain chances for the next few days. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be highest today, with 60 to 70 percent coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours in Houston. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, but on average most locations should pick up 0.25 to 1 inch of rain, with perhaps areas south of Interstate 10 seeing slightly higher accumulations. As these storms may be hitting about during rush hour, take a little extra care in getting home this evening. These showers, along with mostly cloudy skies, should limit highs to the upper 80s. Rain chances are lower overnight, with lows falling to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

This day should be similar to Monday, in terms of showers popping up during the afternoon hours. However, I expect less coverage of storms. Skies will be also be partly sunny, so highs may nudge up to 90 degrees in some locations.

Wednesday

This is a bit of a transition day. We’ll still see some showers, but as we’re moving to a hotter and less rainy pattern, look for partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will fall back to about 20 percent each day, with just a slight chance of a sea breeze shower in the afternoon. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid-90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast period from this weekend into the middle of next week simply looks mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. While we can’t entirely rule out rain chances, the pattern does not look to produce much in the way of precipitation. As I said at the outset, summer proper is on the way.

Good morning. Just jumping in here with a quick Sunday morning update. Yes, a line of fairly strong thunderstorms moved through the Houston area during the overnight hours. No, we did not anticipate them being quite so strong, or arriving quite so early. Sorry for the late-night wake-up call.

The good news is that the overnight storms sapped the atmosphere of much of its energy, and this should lessen thunderstorm activity today. I would expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail, with highs of about 90 degrees or just above, and moderate to high humidity. Your overall chances of seeing a shower or a thunderstorm this afternoon is probably about 30 percent. These rain chances will continue this evening, and during the overnight hours, but at this point I don’t see much sign of a similar flare-up of storms late tonight like the region experienced on Saturday night.

With that being said, the overall pattern this week favors additional showers and thunderstorms through about Wednesday, as disturbances move down from the north into our region. I don’t have much confidence right now in whether these will occur during the daytime, along with atmospheric heating, or at nighttime. Rain chances will go down, and temperatures up, toward the end of the week.

More tomorrow.

Good morning. Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will last for the next six months. It’s also a big day for Matt and myself, as we’re launching a new website devoted to tropical weather in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. It’s called The Eyewall, and you can head over there now to check it out, and find out more information about what we’re doing. But I’m sure some readers will have questions about what this means for Space City Weather, and that’s what I’m going to address now.

Is Space City Weather going to change?

No.

Like not at all?

Like not at all. Matt and I are 100 percent committed to Space City Weather, and improving it every way we can. To that end, look for an updated version of our app soon, that squashes some bugs and delivers the much-asked for dark mode feature in addition to other goodies.

Why are you doing this?

There are two primary reasons. One, much of the current national hurricane coverage is sensationalized, and we think there is room for a different, no-hype approach. And two, we are frequently asked for local sites during hurricane season. (I.e. my mom is in Destin, where can she get this kind of coverage for Tropical Storm X or Hurricane Y) Well, now we’ve got an answer. We’re counting on you to tell friends and family beyond Texas.

Will there be cross-over between the two sites?

A little bit. The Eyewall will publish a “Daily Tropical Outlook” every weekday, and weekends as needed. There will be other hurricane content as well, and lots of coverage of active storms threatening land. Once a week we will cross-publish one of these “tropical outlooks” on Space City Weather (i.e. like with our weekly tropics report).

What happens if a hurricane threatens Texas?

For Space City Weather we cover the storm as usual. The local material would then be cross-posted onto The Eyewall. But our intent is that for readers of Space City Weather there will be no noticeable changes. We will not be publishing content from the Eyewall about storms affecting other parts of the country, or Mexico and the Caribbean Islands here, although we may link to it from time to time on Space City Weather.

Do you have a sponsor?

Not yet. Really, this is an experiment. Matt is taking on a big extra burden with this, and while we’re going to have some contributors, we want to see if this is sustainable. We also want to see if there are readers for this. Maybe it flops. Maybe it doesn’t. Really, we just want to give people some comfort in a terribly trying and traumatic time in their lives. We’ll see.

Now, onto the forecast…

Thursday

Our weather for the next few days will be guided by a modestly strong ridge of high pressure. This means we’re going to see warm and sunny weather. Highs today should reach about 90 degrees, with light southeast winds. One nice aspect of the weather is that dewpoints have not reached hair-melting levels yet, so the humidity won’t be oppressive. Lows tonight drop into the low 70s. Rain chances today are about 10 percent.

Friday

A little warmer, with highs in the low 90s. Otherwise, pretty much the same as Thursday.

Saturday

Another day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. For areas far north of Houston, likely even north of Conroe, there is a slight chance of some rain showers later in the day.

Sunday and Monday

As high pressure eases off, skies will become more cloudy in response to rising atmospheric moisture levels, and our rain chances will go up. Both Sunday and Monday should see about a 50 percent chance of rainfall, with accumulations in the order of 0.25 to 1 inch. Overall chances are probably a bit higher north of Interstate 10, but this far out I don’t have great confidence in that. The clouds should bring highs back down to around 90 degrees on both days.

Later next week

Rain chances continue for a few more days, helping to tamp down high temperatures. But it’s possible that we’re headed toward the low- or even mid-90s by later next week. Hello, June!

Good morning. Houston remains just on the edge of summer weather, but we’re still not quite there. For much of the area, low temperatures are still dropping to around 70 degrees at night. And while daytime highs are reaching near 90 degrees, we’ve not reached the point of dog’s breath humidity either. That is coming, for sure.

Since today is the last day of May, I’d say it’s been a nice month. It is certainly possible for us to be seeing days in the mid-90s and sultry humidity in late May. But not this year, and it looks like May will end up with a slightly below normal temperature in 2023. I for one am enjoying this not-quite-summer weather.

Wednesday

Nearly all of the Houston metro area stayed dry on Tuesday, but there were some fairly strong thunderstorms on the periphery, including near Katy and Conroe, and well to the east of the region over Beaumont. So the potential is out there, and the atmospheric pattern will support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated areas picking up 0.5 to 1 inch or more of rain. About 20 percent of the area is likely to see rain. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, but generally from the southeast. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 90 degrees. Rain chances are not entirely zero, but they’re probably not higher than 10 percent each day. Lows drop into the low 70s, generally.

Saturday

I’m reasonably confident that the first half of the weekend is going to see a continuation of our mostly sunny, and warmish pattern. Expect highs of around 90 degrees. Rain chances, again, will be fairly low, so provided you’ve got protection from the Sun any outdoor activities look good to go.

Sunday and Monday

I have slightly less confidence heading into the back end of the weekend. High pressure is going to back off somewhat, and this will open the atmosphere up to better rain chances. However, there is very little consistency or agreement in the forecast models, so the forecast is pretty fuzzy. Broadly speaking, I’d peg rain chances at 30 to 50 percent each day, with accumulations of perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain. Skies should be a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs again around 90 degrees.

Next week

By Tuesday or so, I expect high pressure to start building again over the region. This should shut down the potential for rainfall, and may nudge highs upward, into the low- to mid-80s. But I’m not ready to lock that forecast in yet.