Eric Berger

Good morning. Much of Houston has once again sunk into the upper teens this morning, as a hard freeze grips the region. However, this will be the worst of it, with Houston seeing one more night in the 20s heading into Christmas morning. Next week looks considerably warmer.

Christmas Eve

Skies will be mostly sunny today, and if you live south of Interstate 10, highs may eventually climb to 40 degrees or higher. Further inland you’ll probably remain in the upper 30s. A noticeable, and welcome, change today will be much reduced winds out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid-20s in the city of Houston, with colder conditions further inland. In terms of electricity, the state power grid seems to be holding steady. We expect that to continue.

Christmas Day

Don’t tell my niece, but she’s getting a trampoline for Christmas. While it will still be cold on Sunday, with highs in the mid-40s it will certainly feel warmer than recent days. So if you dress warmly, with the sunshine and just a light wind, conditions should be fine for outdoor activities such as trampoline jumping after the early morning chill burns away. Overnight lows on Sunday night will get down to about freezing in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and more moderate ones along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday

A bit of uncertainty remains about whether a reinforcing front pushes into Houston on Monday night, or washes out, but I don’t think it matters in terms of precipitation. Both of these should be mostly sunny days, probably with highs slotting into the 50s. Monday nights lows may drop into the 30s, but Tuesday night will be warmer.

Wednesday

This has the look of a pleasant, partly sunny day with highs in the 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week as high pressure shifts eastward, and we’re opened up to a warmer, more humid flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring a notable increase in rain chances. Accordingly I expect both of these days to be mostly cloudy, with at least a 50 percent chance of rain, and highs in the 70s.

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day

The forecast is fairly muddled by this point, but my general expectation is that some kind of weak front is going to push into the region on New Year’s Eve, or thereabouts. This probably will bring an end to the rain showers before festivities start later on New Year’s Eve, but at this point out it’s too far away to say that with any confidence whatsoever. The front may sap some of the humidity, as well. My bet for highs on New Year’s Day would be about 70 degrees, but again, it’s a long ways off.

Best wishes for a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday season

This will be our last post until Tuesday, December 27. It has been a long week due to the cold weather, and with relatively calm conditions ahead we’re going to take a couple of days off to celebrate the holiday weekend. So for Matt, Maria, Lee, Dwight, Hussain and everyone else who contributes here at Space City Weather, let me wish you joy on Christmas Day and during the rest of this holiday season. Your trust is the greatest gift we can receive.

Hi everyone. Just a quick update this evening to set the table for a very cold night, and to provide what limited information we can on the state’s power situation. The bottom line is that lows tonight will drop to around 20 degrees in the city of Houston, with colder weather in outlying areas, and as temperatures plummet we are likely to see a strain on the state’s power grid. Please conserve energy during the next few hours.

Friday night

With lighter winds tonight, lows probably will be 2 to 5 degrees above the extremely cold conditions observed on Friday morning. However, with winds gusting up to 15 mph the apparent temperatures will be in the single digits again. This is weather unfit for people or pets, so please take precautions, as well as keeping in effect your cold-weather plans for pipes. We’ll warm up a little bit more on Saturday morning, with area highs reaching about 40 degrees. There will be less wind, as well, which certainly will be a welcome change.

Energy conservation

Matt and I have been watching the ERCOT supply and demand tracker all day, and it seems that the agency’s estimates for power demand have been consistently low. Understanding the ins and outs of this predictive tool are beyond the scope of a meteorology site, but the Texas Tribune has a helpful story on the issue. The bottom line is that, as of 7 pm CT, ERCOT predicts that it will have enough energy capacity to meet demands tonight. But things are going to be cut really close from now until 10 pm or so.

To that end, some energy companies have been asking residents and businesses to conserve energy usage tonight. In an email to its electricity customers, Reliant asked for conservation through at least 10 pm CT by taking the following steps: 1) If you have an electric heater, set your thermostat 1 to 2 degrees lower and run ceiling fans clockwise; 2) Roll up towels or blankets and put them under drafty doors and window sills in your home; 3) Hold off on running your dishwasher, washer and dryer.

CenterPoint, which provides natural gas in the Houston region, is also calling for conservation. In particular, the company asked for people to turn off pool heaters: “We encourage customers to be especially mindful of their pool heater usage. One pool heater uses as much natural gas as 4 residential homes. Customers can keep their pumps on without the heater to prevent their pool water from freezing.”

To be clear: We do not anticipate widespread, extended blackouts tonight or tomorrow like the state experienced in 2021. Warming on Saturday should really help things out. However there may be issues this evening, and any steps you can take would help.

I’ll be back with a final forecast post on Saturday morning ahead of the Christmas holiday. Be well tonight, friends.

The long-advertised front has arrived, bringing a sharp dose if frigid air diving down from the Arctic Circle. Wind gusts this afternoon have exceeded 40 mph at multiple locations this afternoon, including a top speed of 48 mph at Hobby Airport. As of 5:30 pm CT, air temperatures remain just above freezing in the Houston metro area, but that will not last long as the mercury starts to drop tonight.

Cooldown

Houston is headed into the icebox for a solid 36 hours. Lows tonight will likely fall into the mid- to upper-teens for all the metro area, aside from the immediate coast, which may hold at 20 degrees or slightly above. Even will full sunshine on Friday, high temperatures may only briefly reach 32 degrees during the afternoon, whereas areas further inland may only top out at about 30 degrees. Conditions will be very cold again on Friday night, with lows perhaps only 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night. By Saturday, finally, the area should see highs of around 40 degrees.

The good news is that there is no snow or ice on roadways, so aside from blustery conditions it is safe to drive throughout the greater Houston area and beyond. Roads will remain dry through Christmas Day and beyond.

Power

One of the major problems during the February 2021 freeze was the lack of power, when “rolling” blackouts became permanent due to poor management of the Texas electricity grid and a lack of oversight for proper winterization of power plants. It does appear this problem has been solved. ERCOT is reporting excess power generating capacity, and expects to have electricity to meet demands overnight as temperatures plummet across the state. You can track supply and demand in real time here.

Next post

Matt will have a comprehensive update for you by around 6:30 am CT on Friday. Until such time, please stay warm, make sure your pets and neighbors have the shelter they need, and take care of one another. It is the holiday season, after all!

Good morning, y’all. As the title said, today is a weather day you may remember for a long time. I can point to half a dozen vivid weather memories in Houston that are as plain as day for me—late-night flooding during Harvey, Allison, and Imelda; winds and tornadoes during Ike; drought during the summer of 2011; and the extreme cold, snow, and ice of February 2021. Today we will be making some new memories I think.

As I look out the window of my home office this morning I see fog, as dewpoints and temperatures have both settled in the mid-40s this morning. After a mild start, we’re going to see temperatures climb to nearly 60 degrees. Then, this afternoon, one of strongest cold fronts I’ve observed in my lifetime is going to whip into Houston. This will, in very short order, drop air temperatures by 30 degrees. When you factor in strong winds, it will feel about 60 degrees colder tonight if you step outside. Not that I would recommend it.

I also want to say a word about forecasting. There are some things we still can’t do very well at Space City Weather. For example, if there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on any given day, I can’t absolutely tell you whether (or not) it will rain at your house. But in terms of large pressure patterns, that span thousands of miles across the globe, our best forecast models are starting to get pretty good. Don’t believe me? Here’s what I wrote ten days ago about the weather for today, December 22.

There is a fairly strong signal in the models for an even deeper burst of colder air toward the middle or latter half of next week. This could push overnight temperatures below freezing—perhaps even into the 20s—by around December 22 or so. This really is at the edge of our reliable forecasting capability, so it remains speculative. But my sense is that the days leading up to Christmas are going to be quite cold, and possibly the holiday itself. How cold? I’d love to be able to tell you that, but I can’t. However, I do think we’re looking at lows probably between 25 and 40 degrees, so you can expect Jack Frost to be nipping at your nose.

Space City Weather, Dec. 12, 2022

I’m not going to take credit for that, but I will say that part of good forecasting is understanding when you should lend credence to weather models, and when to consider something as chaff. That is some of the value we try to bring to you, helping to understand what is real about upcoming weather, and what is fluff. The cold tonight, by the way, is very real.

Thursday

As mentioned, we’re seeing some fog this morning, but that should dissipate with sunrise or shortly thereafter. The only real change in our ongoing forecast for the front is that its timing has sped up a little bit. If you’re living in College Station I’d expect its passage by around Noon, and for it to push into the Houston metro area between 1 to 3 pm, and reach the coast by around 5 pm CT. I can’t rule out any precipitation with 100 percent certainty, but anything that falls will be light, and may not make it all the way to the ground.

The immediate changes with the front will be sustained north-northwesterly winds at about 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. By around sunset most of the metro area will already be experiencing freezing temperatures, with air temperatures dropping into the 20s by this evening. If you’re out and about after 9 or 10 pm, be prepared for apparent temperatures in the single digits. To the extent we have electricity concerns, at this moment our largest worry is brief outages due to strong winds affecting poles and lines. Otherwise, we expect the Texas power grid to be able to accommodate demand over the next few days.

Friday

How low will temperatures go on Friday morning? Some of this will depend on the extent of winds and mixing overnight, but it’s a safe bet to expect lows in the 15 to 20 degree range for areas inland of Interstate 10, including locations north and west of Houston. The city itself will likely see lows between 17 and 22 degrees, with coastal areas between 20 and 25 degrees.

Friday will be sunny, with continued gusty northerly winds, and high temperatures briefly nearing or reaching the freezing level. Lows will drop again on Friday night into the low 20s for much of the area, with local temperatures perhaps 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve should see highs near 40 degrees, with sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-20s.

Christmas Day

Another sunny day, likely with highs in the mid-40s. A light freeze is possible on Christmas night.

Next week

There remains some uncertainty about the early part of next week, and an additional front possibly moving through. But it seems that we’ll be solidly into a warming trend by Wednesday, with highs bound for the 70s. It looks like rain chances may start to increase toward the end of next week, and we may be looking at a slightly wet period heading into New Year’s Eve. But for now the details on that are just too fuzzy.

Next update

We’ll have our next update for you this evening, after the front’s passage, to refresh our expectations for overnight low temperatures.