Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will see a healthy chance of storms during the overnight hours, setting up a couple of cooler days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we’re going to warm up heading into the weekend. The forecast by then starts to become hazy, as it’s unclear whether a front will push all the way into the metro area.

Monday

The major story this morning is dense fog, which may linger until 9 or even 10 a.m. before air temperatures warm. Beyond the fog, skies will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the low 80s. Like on Sunday, dewpoints will be sticky all day, with light easterly winds. There will be a few isolated showers today, but overall rain chances are only about 10 percent. Conditions will be warm again tonight, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

A front will approach the area tonight, and bring with it a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should occur between midnight and 8 a.m. My sense is that these showers will be fairly hit or miss in that some parts of the region may see a few tenths of an inch of rain, whereas a few parts of town pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. In any case, these totals should not produce any notable flooding, and the worst of this activity should be over by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday

After the showers move on, we may see a bit of sunshine on Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-70s, with northerly winds gusting at 25 mph or even a bit higher. These northerly winds will herald an influx of drier air that will be with us through Wednesday. Tuesday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the 50s for most of the region.

Wednesday

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday, with highs only reaching about 70 degrees. With the upper atmosphere remaining moderately disturbed it is possible that we see a 10 to 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows on Wednesday night will be a bit warmer, in the low 60s, as a southerly flow returns.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week looks warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and mostly cloudy skies. These will be fairly sticky days, with warm nights. Rain chances won’t be zero, but they’ll be quite low, on the order of maybe 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is, shall we say, up in the air. At issue is whether a weak front has enough oomph to push all the way through Houston. My solution to this uncertainty is to wave my hands and say temperatures will be in the upper 70s or lower 80s, with lows in the 60s, and a slight chance of rain. If you have outdoor plans, at this point, things looks fine. But give me a day or two to firm up the forecast, please.

Good morning. Houston’s more or less Spring-like weather will continue through this weekend and into next week. We won’t be getting too hot, and we won’t be getting too cold, and there will be a smattering of rain showers from time to time.

Thursday

Today will see fairly warm temperatures, as mostly cloudy skies give way to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to pop up into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be noticeable out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. As clouds return this evening, expect a warm night with lows in the low 70s.

Friday

A front will progress toward the Houston metro area on Friday, likely producing fairly widespread, but mostly light showers. A capping inversion in the atmosphere will most likely prevent stronger thunderstorms from developing over the Houston metro area, but the further east you live the more likely this is to happen—further east as in the Beaumont area. Highs will be about 80 degrees on Friday, and overnight temperatures will slowly come down as the front stalls before finally pushing off the coast Saturday morning.

Saturday

This will be a fine, sunny day with an abundance of dry air. Look for sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-80s as air temperatures warm quickly with less moisture in the air. Clouds return on Saturday evening as the onshore flow redevelops, however. Lows should drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Sunday

With a southerly flow, look for more humid and partly cloudy conditions on Sunday. Highs will probably top out in the upper 70s. It’s increasingly likely that most areas will see at least some sprinkles on Sunday, with accumulations of one to two-tenths of an inch possible.

Next week

We’ll see more of the same next week, which is to say a weak front comes in on Monday and cools us down and dries out our air for a few days before a warmer flow resumes. The details of this remain unclear, but it seems safe to expect highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. So all in all, pretty Spring-like weather for Houston.

One of the questions I’m regularly asked is for a long-term forecast for an outdoor wedding or reception in the greater Houston area. The reality is, a forecast for anything further than about 10 days out is little more than a wild guess, and planning for weddings takes months. So my advice to people considering outdoor events in Houston is to choose the time of year carefully.

A few years ago I spent some time studying this question, and the conclusion I came to is that March is the best time of year for outdoor events, in particular the second half of the month. Why? In addition to being fairly temperate, late March actually has the lowest daily chance of precipitation of any time of year. Here’s the full analysis I performed. That is not to say bad weather does not occur in March. Of course it does. But if you took this advice months ago and planned your wedding for this weekend, well, Saturday is going to be splendid. You’re welcome.

Wednesday

Houston has firmly returned to a warmer, and more humid pattern with a pronounced southerly flow. Lows this morning have only fallen to about 70 degrees, and with partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach about 80 degrees or a few ticks higher. Again, a few sprinkles will be possible, but most of the area should remain rain free. Winds will blow from the south, gusting to 20 mph or higher this afternoon. Lows tonight will again be warm.

Thursday

Conditions will be similar on Thursday, with perhaps even more pronounced winds out of the south gusting up to 30 mph. Highs for some inland areas may reach the mid-80s.

Friday

A weak front will push through the area on Friday, likely with a thin line of showers and a few thunderstorms. At this point I think any severe weather probably will remain to the north and east of Houston, and rain accumulations here likely only be measured in one or two tenths of an inch of rain. Showers should end during the late afternoon or evening hours, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This is the pick of the litter for the weekend. Although highs will get into the low 80s, the daytime will have plenty of dry air from the front, and this will also clear our skies out for the day. The onshore flow resumes pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or evening, however, and therefore lows on Saturday night probably will only drop into the low 60s.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday and part of Monday look warmish, with highs in the low 80s and humidity, before another front arrives on Monday. Both days also have a 40-ish percent chance of light rain. It’s too early for firm details, but I think we’ll see a few days in the 70s, with lows in the 50s next week in the wake of the front. That should feel pretty pleasantly spring-like for the region I’d say.

Houston’s first nighttime temperature below 50 degrees this winter occurred back on October 19, about five months ago. With Houston now getting deeper into Spring—and June just 72 days away—it is natural to wonder whether this most recent cold spell was the region’s last of the winter.

The short answer, I would say, is no. While we are definitely entering a pattern where warmer rather than colder weather is the norm, we should still see some decently cold weather during the next six weeks. In fact, I think there’s a modest chance that parts of the Houston metro area see sub-50 degree temperatures about eight to 10 days from now.

Tuesday

But not today. The onshore flow is fully in control of our weather this morning, and we’re going to see a gradual rise in humidity until a front on Friday. High temperatures today will be on the order of the low 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south, gusting to 25 mph at times. And low temperatures tonight will not drop far, perhaps only into the upper 60s. A few areas may see some sprinkles later today as a weak disturbance moves through.

Wednesday

Warmer still, with a high temperature of around 80 degrees and continued partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will again be gusty of out the south.

Thursday

This probably will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Nights will continue to humid and mild.

Friday

I expect fairly widespread showers on Friday, but accumulations look fairly slight, on the order of one-quarter to one-half an inch of rain for most. At this point I can’t entirely rule out some stronger thunderstorms with the front, but as of now I don’t think there will be too many fireworks with its passage. These showers should end by the afternoon, or early evening hours as a moderate front moves in with some drier air. Highs on Friday will be about 80 degrees ahead of the front, dropping into the 50s overnight.

Saturday

This will be a fine springtime day with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. The reason we’re going to get so warm right after the frontal passage is that we’re going to see some fairly dry air moving in for a brief period on Saturday. But these winds will turn southerly again pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or so, and therefore I expect lows on Saturday night to only drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

Highs on Sunday will again be in the low 80s, but with more humidity and probably more clouds.

Next week

Monday looks warm as well before another decent front moves in to bring us some days in the 70s, probably. Rain chances look fairly low, and temperatures fairly moderate, for much of next week.