Eric Berger

Today is August 29. There are just three days left in the month that I consider to be the worst of the year in Houston, weatherwise. August is consistently the hottest, most humid, and often the month with the worst drought conditions of the year in our region. That has unquestionably been the case this month, with record heat and, for most of the area, very little rainfall. And now it’s almost over. Good riddance.

Matt and I have a friendly debate about whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. His point is that, in the rest of the country, fall starts settling in in September, whereas in Houston we often see some of the warmest weeks of the year in September. While I understand Matt’s point, he is entirely wrong. At least in September we have the hope of seeing a bonafide cold front. Typically we see our first real front during the third or fourth week of the month. Hope may be a dangerous thing, but at least I have it in September.

A cold front, by the way, is moving through the region today. Since it is August, however, this is an August front. Which is to say we’re going to see some drier air and (very) slightly cooler weather. This is not unwelcome, but it is not a front that will make you say, “ahhhh” either. Looking into the medium-term, there is no sign of a stronger front in the next 10 to 14 days, but rest assured it is coming. Probably within the next few weeks. We’re getting there, friends.

Tuesday

Thanks to the aforementioned front, high temperatures today will only top out in the mid- to upper-90s. With dew points dropping into the 60s, or even 50s further inland, this air will feel somewhat comfortable this afternoon for all areas but the immediate coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny, with a northerly wind at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are effectively zero percent. Lows tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-70s for much of the area. The bottom line is that this evening should feel a bit more pleasant outside, especially as the Sun goes down.

Wednesday

Dew points will bottom out on Wednesday. So although highs will push the upper 90s to 100 degrees, the air will again feel fairly comfortable during the daytime. Lows will drop into the 70s on Wednesday night, and a few areas far from the coast may even briefly touch the upper 60s. Enjoy this as a promise of what’s to come. The only downside is that we really, really need some rain, and none of that is in the cards before the weekend with the drier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be days a lot like Wednesday, but we’re going to see dewpoints start to creep back up, so you’ll feel the humidity a little bit more each day. By Friday evening, I’m afraid, the front should be long gone.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs this weekend should be in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some inland areas will probably push 100 degrees. As moisture levels rise, we could see some rain showers kick up along the sea breeze during the afternoon or early evening hours, especially on Sunday. Rain chances are probably on the order of 20 to 40 percent each day, at least at this stage. Expect some refinement as we get closer to the weekend.

Next week

This pattern looks to more or less hold next week, with highs in the upper 90s for the most part, with low- to decent rain chances. See, September is already better than the 109-degree temperatures we were experiencing in August.

Tropics

There’s likely to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later today, Idalia. This storm presents a significant threat to the Gulf coast of Florida, particularly the Big Bend area of the state. We have full coverage of this storm, and the rest of the Atlantic tropics, on The Eyewall.

Maybe. The very worst of it is, at least.

But first, let’s recap the story of this summer so far. From mid-June onward, Houston has recorded some of the very hottest temperatures on record, with July ranking as the city second warmest July (behind only July 2022), and this August on pace to be the hottest August in 150 years of records. For example this month, on Thursday and again on Sunday, Houston matched its hottest temperature of all time, 109 degrees. It has been non-stop brutal.

I am not going to sit here and predict that we’re done with 100-degree days. But I do feel reasonably confident that we’re done with the absolutely scorching days of 105-degree plus temperatures that we’ve experienced of late. Houston will now return to a somewhat more “normal” summer in terms of temperatures. Still quite hot, but probably not extremely hot.

Monday

A very weak front has moved down into the region and more or less stalled along the coast, and it should eventually bring some drier air behind it. Skies today will be partly sunny for much of the region, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. There will be a decent chance of showers later today for areas along and south of Interstate 10, perhaps 40 percent, but don’t expect accumulations over more than a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. Chances further inland are probably less than 20 percent.

Tuesday

As the front pushes all the way off the coast, this should help to limit high temperatures in the upper 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny with light northerly winds. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain for coastal areas, and virtually no chance further inland. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the 70s in Houston, with some readings in the upper 60s possible for far inland areas. This is a small promise of what’s to come (hopefully) in a few weeks with the season’s first real front.

Wednesday

This should be the driest day, in terms of low humidity. Still, with clear skies and drier air, we can expect high temperatures near 100 degrees for much of the area. The good news is that evening temperatures will cool off more quickly with the drier air.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll start to see humidity levels coming back up some, but these days still shouldn’t be oppressively humid. Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with sunny skies and no chance of rainfall.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Some rain chances will return to the forecast as air moisture levels rise, and we could see the sea breeze spark some activity. For now, call it a 20 percent chance of rainfall each day.

Next week

Next week should bring more of the same weather, with highs most likely in the upper 90s (cannot rule out some 100 degree days) and rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent as the sea breeze kicks up. The bottom line, I think, is that extreme summer is going away for a while, to be replaced by a-bit-hotter-than-normal summer. I think that’s OK after what we’ve been through?

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are sizzling right now with a major hurricane in Franklin, and Tropical Storm Idalia. The latter is the bigger concern, as Idalia will menace Florida as potentially a major hurricane later this week. We’ll have full coverage, as usual, on The Eyewall website.

Good afternoon. As expected, it’s an absolute burner out there today. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has already reached 108 degrees as of 4 pm CT, which is 1 degree short of the city’s all-time heat record of 109 degrees. (We matched that record high on Thursday, you may recall). It’s now a race between temperatures and approaching rain showers.

In Friday’s forecast we mentioned the possibility of some late afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing on Sunday, associated with a weak boundary. We are now starting to see those showers forming north of the Houston metro area, and they should gradually move southward into the region throughout the evening hours. Areas where precipitation falls will see drops in temperature associated with rain-cooled air.

To set expectations, these showers will be very hit or miss. Lucky locations will pick up a few, quick tenths of an inch of rain, whereas other observers will look longingly as the dark clouds and see little, if any precipitation. At this point it looks like the stronger storms are more likely to develop north of Interstate 10, but areas all the way down to the coast at least have a puncher’s chance of seeing some shower activity.

We are entering a brief period where rain will be possible, essentially this evening through Tuesday morning, before a weak front brings some drier air and shuts the door on rain chances for awhile. We’ll have the full story on the forecast ahead in our post on Monday morning, but just wanted to jump in on a Sunday afternoon with a heads up about the rain chances this evening. Good luck out there!

Good morning. Heat remains the dominant storyline of our forecast for the remainder of August, and conditions look to be especially warm from now through the weekend. However, I’m watching for a chance of showers this afternoon and early evening, and for some potential changes in the forecast next week. Also, we’ll discuss a tropical blob in the Caribbean Sea that’s expected to move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Thursday

Today is simply going to be blazing hot. Highs will range from near 100 degrees right along the coast to around 105 degrees or higher for inland locations such as Spring, College Station, and Kingwood. Skies will be sunny. With that said, some of our high-resolution modeling is indicating the possibility of an atmospheric disturbance moving southward later today, and this could produce scattered showers from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. I will freely admit that this forecast could be a total bust, especially with high pressure in place. But I think there’s at least some hope for a pleasant surprise with scattered showers this afternoon.

Friday

Another hot day, but temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday. We’ll again see sunny skies, but there’s also the possibility of a few late afternoon showers.

Saturday and Sunday

No changes in terms of temperatures. We’re looking at highs, generally, in the low 100s. Saturday is going to be sunny and hot. Sunday will as well, but at least there appears to be a slight possibility of some rain showers.

Next week

By early next week the dominant high pressure system will be retreating westward, and that at least opens up the possibility of some changes in our forecast. What form, precisely, those will take is yet unclear. At this point I’d guess highs will still be about 100 degrees, but we’ll see some daytime rain chances—whether those are 20 percent or 50 percent, I cannot say. There’s also a slight chance that a weak front pushes down into the region on Tuesday, which could knock humidity levels down a bit. But that is all very tentative. Our weather may also be influenced by a tropical system moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropics

For a few days now, the European model has been suggesting that a tropical system will emerge in the Western Caribbean Sea, related to the Central American Gyre, which is basically a broad monsoonal low-pressure system over Central America. Under this scenario a tropical low would then move north, into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note there is far from universal support for this idea in the global models. In any case, such a system would likely remain away from Texas, and push drier air into our region from the northeast. For more detail on this system, check out our Atlantic hurricane coverage on The Eyewall.