Spring returns after (probably?) the final winter-like weekend in Houston for many months

Good morning! Lows bottomed out in the upper-30s and low-40s across much of Houston this morning, and I think this probably will be our coldest weather until October, or possibly even November in the region. Significantly warmer conditions are on the way after today, with a return to highs in the low 80s by Wednesday or so.

The good news is that the passage of a strong front on Friday, with a combination of winds and rainfall, really helped to knock down tree pollen and mold spore allergies over the weekend. We have definitely come through the worst of the spring time allergy season for oak trees and its messy, yellowish pollen.

Low temperatures on Monday morning are rather cold for late March in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Monday

Today will be our final chilly day, with highs likely only topping out around 60 degrees as a cold air mass remains in place and skies are mostly cloudy. However, change is on the way as winds will shift to come from north-northeast to the southeast. This shift will moderate lows on Monday night, likely keeping most of the region in the low- to mid-50s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be warmer, with highs generally in the low- to mid-70s, and more partly to mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will start to become more pronounced, picking up to 15 or 20 mph. Low temperatures will only briefly drop below 70 degrees in the metro area.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs ranging from 80 to 85 degrees, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. The southerly flow will be really noticeable, with wind gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph due to a fairly steep pressure gradient. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

The region’s next front will arrive on Friday, and it should bring a healthy chance of rain showers into the region starting during the early morning hours. Accumulations look to be about one-half inch of rain north of Interstate 10, with lesser amounts to the south, but I would not bank on those amounts just yet. The front is not particularly strong, so high temperatures on Friday will still reach about 80 degrees, with lows perhaps dropping into the upper 50s on Friday night.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks great, with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 80 degrees on Saturday. On Sunday, as the onshore flow resumes, we may see a few scattered showers, although I don’t feel overly confident in the details just yet. Most of next week should see highs in the 70s, with nothing too extreme on the way. Enjoy your springtime weather, Houston!

Sunday is looking downright hot in Houston

Houston will face four more warm days before a cold front arrives on Sunday afternoon or evening to bring a semblance of normalcy back to our weather. Until then the major question mark is just how warm conditions will get on Sunday, just ahead of the front. Some parts of the metro area have a chance to hit 90 degrees for the first time in 2023.

Thursday

Today will be similar to the rest of the days this week, which is to say we’re starting off with a humid morning and some patchy fog in coastal areas. Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, but should give way to partly sunny skies later this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid-80s, with light southerly winds.

For those venturing out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, we again have no concerns for the weather outside. It will be pleasant this evening, with temperatures in the 70s. Winds may gust to about 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight will do their usual thing of late, which means they’ll drop to around 70 degrees, or slightly lower.

Friday

A (very) weak cold front is going to approach our region from the northwest on Friday, and while this will bring storms to the west and northwest of the Houston metro area, I think these showers will die out before reaching Katy or The Woodlands. This front will bring a smidgen of dry air into the area, but it won’t have too much of a sensible effect. The bottom line, I think, is that highs may top out in the low 80s instead of mid-80s, with temperatures Friday night dropping into the mid-60s. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

The HRRR model depicts showers petering out Friday morning as they move into Houston. (Weather Bell)

Saturday

Skies will gradually become partly sunny on Saturday, and this will be a warm day with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday

This is the first day of 2023 that I would explicitly say is going to be hot. Ahead of the next front we’re going to see a warm westerly flow, and this will be noticeably with gusty westerly winds. Depending on how much sunshine our area sees, high temperatures for some inland areas may hit 90 degrees. A front arrives on Sunday afternoon or evening, and this will (finally?) usher in some cooler and drier air into the region. The front’s passage will likely be dry. Lows drop into the upper 50s.

Forecast for Sunday’s high temperatures in Houston. (National Weather Service)

Next week

We’ll see a few days with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s next week before a warm-up. Then another front probably will arrive on Thursday or Thursday night, and the good news is that, for now, this one looks like to carry a better chance of rain with it. We’re too far out to parse details, but an inch or so of rainfall sure would be welcome after our recent warm and dry period.

For the time being it will be pollen, rather than precipitation, falling from our skies

Good morning. Houston’s not hot, but definitely not cold, weather will continue for several more days. In the meantime, while we can expect plenty of things to fall out of the sky, rain drops are unlikely to be among them. Instead, we should see the continuation of high season for tree pollen in Houston. It is everywhere in the air at the moment, and this pattern is unlikely to change for at least the next week. As for rainfall, chances may pick up about 8 to 10 days from now.

At Hobby Airport, there has not been substantial precipitation since early February. (National Weather Service)

Wednesday

If you’ve been paying attention to the weather this week, then you have a pretty good idea of what to expect today outside. Coastal areas will see fog this morning. Mostly cloudy skies to start the day may break up just slightly during the afternoon hours to provide a little sunshine. And for most of us, high temperatures will be climbing into the mid-80s to make for a warm day.

If you’re heading to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening, you can once again count on mild conditions. Temperatures this evening will be in the upper 70s, with moderate southerly winds. Rain chances are near zero. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees, or slightly below that the further inland one goes.

Thursday

Basically, a carbon copy of Wednesday.

Friday

By late Thursday night or early Friday, a weak—an oh so very weak—front will be approaching the Houston region from the north. It’s going to stall out somewhere, and the models are still a bit uncertain where. At this point, if I’m forced to predict, I’d say it stops north of Interstate 10. The bottom line is that, for now, I’d expect most of the area to see a warm day in the 80s, albeit with a slight 10 to 20 percent chance of rain. Lows on Friday night may drop into the low- to mid-60s for areas north of Interstate 10, due to the influence of the front, but humidity levels aren’t going down very much.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be one of the warmest weekends of 2023 to date. Saturday should see highs in the low to mid-80s with partly sunny skies, with Sunday seeing highs jump into the upper 80s due to a warmer westerly flow. On Sunday you’ll probably also notice the winds out of the west, gusting to 20 mph or higher. At some point on Sunday, perhaps during the afternoon, or perhaps later in the evening or overnight, a more substantial front will work its way into Houston. This one should go all the way to the coast and offshore. Lows on Sunday night will be cooler as a result. At this point the frontal passage looks mostly dry, in terms of rainfall.

Cooler weather finally arrives on Sunday night in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Said front will give us a few days of cooler, and probably mostly sunny weather to start next week. We’re talking mostly about highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. After a warming trend, a second front may push into the region by Friday-ish. At this point the models are still holding onto a chance for decent rain accumulations with this front, but since we’re talking about a forecast nine days from now, I would not hold my breath. But golly, we sure could use some rain.

Warm through the weekend, with an especially toasty Sunday for March

Houston’s warm and mostly humid—but largely rain-free—weather will continue through the weekend. As a matter of fact, highs may really pop up on Sunday ahead of front that will send us back toward more March-like weather.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, and a warm southerly flow, today will be fairly warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. Only coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, and generally from the south or southeast.

If you’re heading to the rodeo, you can expect mild conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s before the show, falling to the low- or mid-70s with moderate southerly winds afterwards. Skies will be mostly cloudy this evening, and we can expect overnight lows to only briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will bring more of the same, which is to say highs in the mid-80s, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Daytime winds will become a bit greater each day, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph out of the south by Thursday afternoon.

High temperature forecast for Friday shows a chance for some slightly modified temperatures. (National Weather Service)

Friday

A weak front will slowly drift down into Houston on Friday morning, but there is some question about how far it will progress. At this point, I think it has a decent chance of reaching the coast, in which case we will see some slightly drier air. (There looks to be little likelihood of rain with said front). In any case, Inland areas may only see highs in the 70s on Friday, with the coast being a little warmer. Low temperatures on Friday night may drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

To be clear, the weekend forecast remains in flux. But what I think will happen is that the area may see some lingering dry-ish air from the front, but the onshore flow will be pushing back into the area. Accordingly we should see high temperatures in the ballpark of 80 degrees with a fair amount of sunshine. In terms of warmth, Sunday could be fairly hot. This is because we’re going to see a more westerly flow, and this probably will make temperatures pop up into the upper 80s.

And Sunday, well Sunday just looks hot. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Some sort of stronger front will arrive by early next week, likely on Monday. This should set the stage for a few days in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s, or thereabouts. In other words, it should feel a little bit more like March, rather than late April or May. Rain chances may start to perk up toward the end of next week, which would be a welcome development for our drying grounds. I’ll have more on that tomorrow.