Eric Berger

Good morning! The big talking points this week are a brief warmup through Tuesday, the potential for storms ahead of the next cold front, and then an extended period of warmer weather during the first week of December. Before getting to the weekly forecast, however, I want to say just a little bit more about the Thanksgiving rains.

Earlier this year, parts of the Houston region were experiencing an extreme drought, and problems were most acute in Brazoria and Galveston counties. Even prior to last week’s rains these coastal counties were in what the US Drought Monitor characterizes as a “moderate drought.” Fortunately, I think we can safely put those concerns to bed after the region’s widespread rains on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning. Nearly all of the coastal counties pulled in 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with areas further inland recording 2 to 5 inches generally. This was the soaking we needed to extinguish this year’s drought.

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Monday

Much of the area is starting today out in the 40s this morning, and with mostly sunny skies we should see temperatures warm nicely into the low 70s by this afternoon. A reinforcing front arrived on Sunday to keep us dry overnight, but that front is washing out today and will be replaced by a warmer onshore flow. Accordingly, light northerly winds this morning will turn southeasterly later today. This will bring increasing clouds this evening, and lows tonight will only drop to around 60 degrees. (By the way, if you’ve not heard yet, the city of Houston is under a “boil water” notice due to a water pressure issue).

Tuesday

Given the warmer temperatures overnight, we have a good chance of seeing sea fog on Tuesday morning, which likely will be thickest near the coast. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs near 80 degrees. The big question concerns the possibility of showers and thunderstorms during the daytime, ahead of a frontal passage late Tuesday night. All of the atmospheric ingredients we need for storms are there, but they probably won’t line up just right. (The story is different well to our northeast). As a result, I expect to see scattered showers in Houston, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Accumulations don’t look particularly notable. The frontal boundary, with cooler and drier air, is unlikely to reach Houston until around sunrise on Wednesday.

Wednesday

In the wake of the front this will be a cool and sunny day, with highs of around 60 degrees. Winds will be blustery, gusting up to 25 or 30 mph out of the north. Lows will bottom out near 40 degrees on Wednesday night.

Thursday

Another chilly day, with highs in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Expect partly sunny skies.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks warmer as the onshore flow gets reestablished. Saturday and Sunday, in particular, should see highs near 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. We can’t rule out a slight chance of rain on both days, but for now any accumulations look slight.

Next week

The early part of next week looks fairly warm, too, before a cold front arrives to chill us down. The details of how strong this front will be, alas, are pretty fuzzy.

Good morning. The storm system that has hit our region during the last two days is finally moving eastward. The last line of its showers is moving fairly quickly from west to east across the area. Areas near Interstate 45 are still being hammered this morning with rainfall, but the heaviest of these storms will be gone by around 7:30 or 8 am, and the rains should be over entirely by 10 or 11 am. Skies will clear out this afternoon. We are ending the Stage 1 flood alert accordingly.

As anticipated, much of the area has received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall since Thanksgiving morning, with a few isolated areas receiving as much as 7 inches of rainfall. I’ll post more about this on Monday, but these rains have definitely put a nice dent in the drought that formed this summer and fall across parts of the Houston metro area. And so while they may have made for a soggy holiday, our trees will be thankful for these rains.

The good news is that while the last two days were wet, the second half of the long weekend will be sunny and fine. Look for clearing skies this afternoon and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the west, at times gusting up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Winds will slacken some on Sunday, with more sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. In short, this should be a fine fall weekend once rains clear this morning.

We’ll see a sharp warm-up by Tuesday, with highs climbing to about 80 degrees, before the next cold frotn arrives to cool things off for a few days. I hope everyone has a pleasant end to the holiday weekend.

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Good afternoon. If you’re tired of gray skies and wet streets, I’ve got bad news and good news for you.

We’ll start with the bad news: It’s not over.

Now for the good news: It’s almost over.

The greater Houston region faces one more wet and possibly stormy night before we see some sunny and sedate weather.

Friday afternoon

After a lull in activity for most of today, as of 3:30 pm CT, storms are forming to the southwest of the Houston metro area and moving toward the city. These showers should be less intense and more scattered that what’s coming later tonight, after midnight, but a few areas may still see some briefly intense rainfall this evening. So if you’re out and about, please be mindful of conditions nearby. Temperatures should hold steady in the low 60s.

Late Friday night/early Saturday morning

Overnight a slow-moving low pressure system should combine with ample atmospheric moisture to produce heavier rainfall. Sometime after midnight, therefore, we expect strong, widepsread storms to move into the Houston region and generate rainfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. These rates are intense enough to quickly back up roads, and therefore we expect that some areas will see street flooding late tonight into Saturday morning. While we cannot entirely rule out a touch of severe weather, such as damaging winds for the most part these should be be heavy showers with some lightning mixed in.

At some point these showers will clear out from west to east on Saturday morning. Most model guidance suggests the heavy rain should depart by 7 to 9 am, with showers ending entirely by around noon. Between now and then I expect most areas to receive 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall, with the potential for higher totals in isolated areas. The further north of Interstate 10 you live, the more likely you are to see lower accumulations.

Saturday afternoon and beyond

Skies should clear pretty quickly as the rain showers move out, so I expect partly to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon, with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 in Houston, which means colder conditions further inland. Sunday looks splendid, with sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Monday will be similar before we start to warm up ahead of a mid-week cool front.

Unless the forecast takes a turn for the worse, this will be our last update until Saturday morning, at which time we expect to drop the Stage 1 flood alert.

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Good morning. I hope this message finds you happy and healthy on this Thanksgiving morning. I have much to be thankful for in both my personal and professional life. One of the things I am most happy about is the trust placed by readers in the work Matt and I do. So thank you for spending a few moments with Space City Weather on this holiday morning.

This morning’s forecast will focus the forthcoming rain event that will bring two days of showers and thunderstorms to the Houston region. While most of this rainfall will be manageable—most locations should receive 1 to 4 inches—we’re concerned about more isolated areas that could receive up to 6 inches of precipitation between now and Saturday morning. This may cause street flooding, and therefore we have called for a Stage 1 flood alert.

Thursday

As anticipated, we are seeing the development of storms near the coast this morning, in the Freeport and Lake Jackson area. These storms are associated with a warm front moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, and will become more widespread leater this morning. This front should progress toward Interstate 10 by around noon, and it is likely that the strongest storms this afternoon will lie to its north. Therefore, today, we are most concerned about rain accumulations along and north of Interstate 10. Highs today will reach about 70 degrees, give or take, with cloudy skies and muggy air. I expect that showers will back off this evening and during the overnight hours, while the atmosphere recharges.

Friday

Conditions will continue to favor widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cut-off low pressure system lifts moist air at the surface. At this time our higher resolution models are suggesting that storms on Friday will peak during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Over the last couple of days the overall movement of this low pressure system has slowed down, so it’s entirely possible the heavy rainfall threat will extend into Saturday morning. That’s something we’ll be watching for. Highs on Friday will be in the mid-60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still expecting things to clear out significantly this weekend, but there’s now the potential for some lingering storms on Saturday morning. Skies should become partly sunny during the afternoon, with highs in the mid-60s. We’ll be sunny, with a high near 70 on Sunday. Expect this warming trend to continue until Tuesday or Wednesday, when the next front arrives.

As we continue to track this dynamic rainfall situation, Matt will have an update for you this afternoon.

Fundraiser

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