Eric Berger

Good morning. Warmth and humidity has returned to the region, and we will see a calm day in the 80s today before rain and the possibility of storms enters the forecast later Thursday through Friday. This will, in turn, be followed by pleasant conditions on Saturday and most of Sunday before the return of more rain chances. Note that, in honor of the Taylor Swift concerts this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Houston, I’ve changed the day names accordingly. If you don’t like that, well, Shake it Off.

Wednesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Most of the region will remain rain-free, but the western half of the region has a (very) slight chance of seeing some sprinkles this afternoon. For most of us it will just be a mix of sunshine and clouds, with at-times gusty southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

Temperatures and humidity on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, but skies will be mostly cloudy. However, beginning during the afternoon hours, we’re likely to see some showers develop along a boundary north of Houston. Put another way, expect the possibility of scattered showers or thunderstorms north of Interstate 10. By late Thursday evening into Friday morning, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread.

You Need To Calm Down

The best chance for heavy rain this week is likely to come overnight Thursday into Friday morning. We’re going to have to refine this forecast as we get closer, but the hail and damaging winds are possible into Friday morning ahead of a cold front that will arrive later in the day. In terms of accumulations, I think most of the area will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

So what does this mean for the Taylor Swift concert? At this time I think rain chances will be winding down during the afternoon or evening hours, so the best chance of storms should be over. However if you’re getting to NRG Stadium several hours before the show starts, it will be something to monitor. After the show I would not have any concerns. However, winds will be be breezy, out of the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Hold on to your hats! Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

The Best Day

Saturday is going to be a fine, fine springtime day. Look for highs in the low- to mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Those winds from Friday night will be starting to wind down, so we’ll only need to concern ourselves with gusts of 15 mph or so. Lows on Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, but I think most of the area will drop into the 50s.

All You Had To Do Was Stay

Alas, the cold front is not going to stay on Sunday. Pretty quickly, we’re going to see the return of the onshore flow, and this will allow clouds to develop on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 70s. Rain chances may start to return as quickly as Sunday afternoon or evening, which may be a concern if you’re heading to the third and final Swift concert in Houston. Some models are bringing a healthy chance of showers back into the forecast for Sunday night, which is a potential concern for weather after the show. We’ll try to get a more finely tuned forecast for you in the next day or two.

Next week

Taylor’s gone, but the weather goes on and on. Houston is likely to see a warming trend, with at least a decent chance of showers through Tuesday or Wednesday, after which a weak front may arrive to bring sunnier skies for awhile. After that the crystal ball starts to get cloudy …

After an absolutely lovely Monday, Houston’s weather will now begin to do Houston things again, which means the return of an onshore flow, the potential for rain showers, and warmer and more humid conditions. But fear not, my friends, this forecast has something for everyone, with highs in the mid-80s, then some healthy rain chances on Thursday night and Friday, followed by cooler and drier air this weekend.

Tuesday

Winds are light this morning, out of the south and southeast, heralding the return of a warmer flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. This will help push high temperatures into the upper 70s today, along with mostly cloudy skies. We’re also going to see a decent chance—40 percent, maybe?—of some light to moderate rain showers today as an upper-level disturbance moves through from west to east. Some of these showers are already kicking off west and southwest of the city. For the most part, rain accumulations should be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain, give or take. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight, with lows dropping only into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

A little warmer, a little more humid, and with rain chances a little lower, perhaps only 10 or 20 percent. Look for highs somewhere around 80 degrees, or a touch higher if we get a decent stretch of partly to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon. Winds will be a bit more blowy, gusting to perhaps 20 miles out of the southeast. Wednesday night will be warm and cloudy.

Thursday and Friday

This will be a warm and potentially wet period ahead of a cold front on Friday, likely during the evening hours. Both days should see highs in the low- to mid-80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The real question is how much rain we’re going to see from Thursday evening through Friday night. Models have gotten a little more bullish on factors such as instability, so I think we’re looking at a solid 0.25 to 1 inch of rain for most of the area, with higher totals possible to the northeast of Houston. Cooler and drier air should start arriving some time on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Oh, hello. Did you DoorDash a gorgeous spring weekend from Mother Nature? Because you are in luck. As of right now, I think we’re looking at mostly sunny skies, with highs in the neighborhood of 70 degrees, on both weekend days. Lows will bottom out on Saturday night, perhaps hitting the upper 40s for areas well inland. Saturday should be breezy in the wake of the front, but right now those winds don’t look too crazy.

Next week

We’ll start to warm up by Monday or Tuesday, and the middle of next week looks fairly humid and fairly warm. So if you like cooler weather, please do enjoy this weekend.

Good morning. We’re jumping in here with a quick post on Saturday morning as we’re getting more data about atmospheric conditions later today and tonight. Essentially, what we’re seeing is an atmosphere more conducive to thunderstorms and potentially severe weather than we expected.

To be clear this is not an all-out alert. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the entire Houston region placed under only a “slight” chance of severe weather for today and tonight. But that is higher than we anticipated yesterday.

A warm day in the upper 80s today will help provide atmospheric heating. This may support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms from 3 to 6 pm in the vicinity of downtown or areas north of the city. Then there may be a bit of a reprieve before a cold front moves through the area from west to east.

The primary time for concern from storms will run from 7 pm to midnight, as storms generally progress eastward across the area. The front will provide some pretty vigorous uplift and instability, but these storms will be hit or miss. Some areas will get no rain, whereas small pockets of the city or greater Houston region may pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain rather quickly. Embedded in these storms is the threat of strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and hail. On the scale of excitable dogs—on which my two are invariably a 10 when there is lightning or fireworks—I’d call tonight a 7.5 until things settle down by or before midnight.

The bottom line is that this evening will bring the threat of severe weather to Houston, and based on our latest data we think it is prudent to be weather aware. Things may be just fine, or there may be an hour or two of bedlam. Have a good radar app available to check conditions in your area. We are still highly confident that things clear out overnight, bringing the region some drier, sunny, and most pleasant weather for Sunday and Monday.

Good morning. After a final flirtation with the 50s this morning we are going to see gradually warming temperatures through Saturday, when parts of Houston may hit 90 degrees for the first time. A front on Saturday night will put an end to that. We should see some showers and thunderstorms ahead of, and along with the front, but the overall chance of severe weather now looks fairly low. Sunny and pleasant weather will follow.

Thursday

Houston has enjoyed several days of a northeasterly flow, but all good things must end and this will too, today. As the onshore flow gets going we will see gradually rising humidity levels and temperatures through Saturday. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies, with relatively light southerly winds this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low-60s. Rain chances are near zero.

Friday

As the southerly flow intensifies, we’ll see stronger winds, perhaps gusting to about 20 mph. The increased moisture in the atmosphere should lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies, and this should help to limit high temperatures into the low-80s. Overnight lows won’t fall very far, likely only to around 70 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be hot, with partly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper-80s. A few areas will probably hit 90 degrees with the warm southerly air. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, evening, and night, but the models have backed off accumulations a fair amount. This means that overall rain chances are now about 50 percent, and totals will likely be on the order of an tenth of an inch, or two. The best chance for rain and severe weather, with the front, look to be northeast of the Houston metro area.

Sunday

Skies will clear out on Sunday morning, with breezy northerly winds. Look for highs in the upper-70s and chilly conditions overnight as lows drop into the low-50s for most of the area. Aside from some occasionally gusty winds—which should be perfect for flying a kite—this will be a fine day to be outside.

Next week

Monday should be another sunny and fine day, with highs in the upper 70s. After that a southerly flow returns to Houston, setting the stage for some rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, and warmer days in the mid-80s through the weekend. Overall, April will be doing April-like things.