Eric Berger

Good morning, and I hope this Tuesday is terrific for you. As for our what to expect from Mother Nature, Houston faces a pattern ahead with a little bit of unsettled weather, a little bit of warmer weather, and a little bit of fine, springtime weather. So it goes for April.

Tuesday

Temperatures are warmer this morning, having bottomed out at about 60 degrees for most of the region except for the coast where conditions are warmer. Humidity levels will continue to tick upward today as light winds turn easterly. Expect partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to about 80 degrees. The more difficult question is rainfall. I would say the area has about a 30 percent chance of mostly light, scattered showers today.

As we get into this evening and the overnight hours, things get a little more interesting. There is plenty of moisture for the atmosphere to work with, but it’s not clear how much instability there will be. The bottom line, I think, is that there is about 30 or 40 percent chance of rain this evening and during the overnight hours. For most of us, this will be a non-event. But for a few neighborhoods, at least, there likely will be some fairly decent thunderstorms. So while the vast majority of the area is probably a 1 or a 2 on the excitable dog index, a few areas may be closer to a 6 or 7 later today and tonight.

Wednesday

This day will be partly sunny and warmer, with highs in the low 80s. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent. A word of warning if you’re traveling north on Interstate 35 Wednesday. A front will be moving through the state, and North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, faces a healthy risk of thunderstorms and severe weather. I don’t think these storms will propagate all the way south to the Houston area, however. Lows on Wednesday night will be warm, dropping only into the upper 60s.

Thursday

A weak front pushes into Houston on Thursday morning, and we probably will see a round of showers with it. How much activity is going to occur is a little fuzzy, but my guess is that rain chances will be highest from about midnight to noon on Thursday, with clearing skies afterward and highs around 80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

This looks like a mostly sunny day, with highs popping up into the mid-80s, with slightly drier air.

Saturday

A second, stronger front looks set to arrive late Friday night or Saturday morning. The models are a bit unclear, but it is possible that a line of showers accompanies this front. In any case, this looks to clear out pretty quickly on Saturday morning. The story afterward is going to be northerly winds behind the front—something to definitely consider if you’re participating in the MS-150 bike ride. Highs should reach the mid-70s on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies. Winds could gust up to about 30 mph during the afternoon hours. With clear skies look for lows to drop into the 50s on Saturday night. There won’t be too many more of these chilly nights this season, so if that’s your jam, you best get jamming this weekend.

Sunday

A pleasant, sunny day with highs likely in the low 80s. As the onshore flow returns, Sunday night will be a touch warmer, with lows perhaps around 60 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs somewhere in the 80s. It looks like the next chance of rain will return on Tuesday or Wednesday.

After a surprisingly chilly Sunday, temperatures are fairly cold this morning across the state of Texas, with parts of the Houston dropping to about 50 degrees in the wake of a front. The region will see another decent cold snap this weekend as we reach the end of April. Knowing what is coming over the next five months, it’s nice to see April doing spring-like things.

Monday

We will see mostly cloudy skies today because, just above the surface, winds have already turned to come from offshore, pumping moisture back into the atmosphere. However, at the surface winds will remain from the northeast for the most part today, and this will keep our air reasonably dry, with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures tonight will only drop down to around 60 degrees with this warmer flow taking hold at the surface.

Tuesday

The aforementioned moisture in the atmosphere will combine with an atmospheric disturbance to produce a healthy chance of showers, and possibly some thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I think any rain will be fairly scattered during the daytime on Tuesday, with partly sunny skies helping to push daytime highs up to nearly 80 degrees. Showers may become more widespread Tuesday evening and overnight. While we cannot rule out a chance of severe weather in the Houston metro area, including hail and damaging winds, the more pronounced threat will be to our west, particularly along the Interstate 35 corridor. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the mid- to upper-60s.

Wednesday

Never a dull day this week. Why? Because while Wednesday will start out with fairly calm weather and partly sunny weather, a front will be approaching from the west. Again we’ll not be in the bullseye for high storm chances—those will be off to the north this time—but we probably can expect some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night. Expect daytime highs in the low 80s, with overnight temperatures in the 60s.

Thursday

After any showers associated with the front clear during the morning hours, we’ll probably see a partly sunny day, with a smidgeon of drier air, and highs in he upper 70s.

Friday

Thursday’s front will be short-lived, so look for highs to push back up into the lower 80s, with nighttime temperatures in the low 60s. Another, slightly stronger, front looks to push in on Friday night setting the stage for a cooler weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will feel distinctly spring-like even though we’re coming to the end of April. In the wake of the front, look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, likely with clearing skies. Lows Saturday night will probably bottom out in the mid-50s, and Sunday will top out at around 80 degrees with sunny skies.

If you’re riding the MS-150 bike event out of Houston this weekend, the one concern is winds. It’s too early to be certain, but I think there probably will be decently strong winds from the north on Saturday, perhaps gusting to 25 mph. Similar, but less gusty winds, will be possible on Sunday. Fortunately the likelihood of rain or any storms this weekend is very low at this point.

Next week

The start of next week should see a warming trend, with temperatures eventually getting into the mid- to upper-80s, probably. Then? Perhaps some sort of front to cool things down. We’ll see.

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Good morning. Warmth and humidity has returned to the region, and we will see a calm day in the 80s today before rain and the possibility of storms enters the forecast later Thursday through Friday. This will, in turn, be followed by pleasant conditions on Saturday and most of Sunday before the return of more rain chances. Note that, in honor of the Taylor Swift concerts this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Houston, I’ve changed the day names accordingly. If you don’t like that, well, Shake it Off.

Wednesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Most of the region will remain rain-free, but the western half of the region has a (very) slight chance of seeing some sprinkles this afternoon. For most of us it will just be a mix of sunshine and clouds, with at-times gusty southerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

Temperatures and humidity on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, but skies will be mostly cloudy. However, beginning during the afternoon hours, we’re likely to see some showers develop along a boundary north of Houston. Put another way, expect the possibility of scattered showers or thunderstorms north of Interstate 10. By late Thursday evening into Friday morning, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread.

You Need To Calm Down

The best chance for heavy rain this week is likely to come overnight Thursday into Friday morning. We’re going to have to refine this forecast as we get closer, but the hail and damaging winds are possible into Friday morning ahead of a cold front that will arrive later in the day. In terms of accumulations, I think most of the area will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

So what does this mean for the Taylor Swift concert? At this time I think rain chances will be winding down during the afternoon or evening hours, so the best chance of storms should be over. However if you’re getting to NRG Stadium several hours before the show starts, it will be something to monitor. After the show I would not have any concerns. However, winds will be be breezy, out of the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Hold on to your hats! Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

The Best Day

Saturday is going to be a fine, fine springtime day. Look for highs in the low- to mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Those winds from Friday night will be starting to wind down, so we’ll only need to concern ourselves with gusts of 15 mph or so. Lows on Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, but I think most of the area will drop into the 50s.

All You Had To Do Was Stay

Alas, the cold front is not going to stay on Sunday. Pretty quickly, we’re going to see the return of the onshore flow, and this will allow clouds to develop on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 70s. Rain chances may start to return as quickly as Sunday afternoon or evening, which may be a concern if you’re heading to the third and final Swift concert in Houston. Some models are bringing a healthy chance of showers back into the forecast for Sunday night, which is a potential concern for weather after the show. We’ll try to get a more finely tuned forecast for you in the next day or two.

Next week

Taylor’s gone, but the weather goes on and on. Houston is likely to see a warming trend, with at least a decent chance of showers through Tuesday or Wednesday, after which a weak front may arrive to bring sunnier skies for awhile. After that the crystal ball starts to get cloudy …