Eric Berger

Well, the good news is that the weather should be fine today for travel in the greater Houston region, and throughout much of Texas. The bad news is that the forecast for Thanksgiving Day, night, and into Friday is not great. The big picture is that by Thursday morning rain chances will be on the rise, and we expect to see a storm system move in during the afternoon hours. Additional showers are possible overnight, and throughout the day on Friday. Unfortunately, now it looks like conditions really won’t clear out until Friday night or Saturday morning.

Wednesday

Today should be mostly sunny—yes, really—offering a short break from our rainy pattern. These mostly clear skies will allow high temperatures to warm into the upper 60s. As winds turn to come from the southeast, you’ll notice pretty rapidly increasing humidity levels. Along with this increased atmospheric moisture, clouds will build this evening over the area. Overnight lows probably will only drop to around 60 degrees.

From Wednesday night through Friday we’re going to experience a prolonged period of high rain chances. Why, you may ask, will we see rainfall even after a cold front moves into the region on Thursday evening? The answer is that an area of low pressure system will break off from the main westerly pattern in the atmosphere. This “cutoff low” will then more or less meander over Texas for a couple of days, spurring intermittent rainfall from Thursday morning through Friday night, before moving off.

Thursday

The start of the Thanksgiving holiday will be warmish, in the 60s, with muggy air. We’re going to see at least some scattered showers during the morning hours, but there’s a chance you’ll avoid rain until the afternoon. However, after that time I expect a more organized mass of showers and thunderstorms to move into much of the region, bringing as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. While this will be unpleasant, I don’t think it will cause any real flooding issues. There is also the potential for some more severe weather, including damaging winds, but I think heavy rainfall and lightning is the primary threat. You most definitely need a fallback plan for any outdoor activities or gatherings on Thanksgiving. Look for highs in the low 70s, dropping into the 50s overnight as cooler air from the front moves in.

Friday

Eventually, drier air should move into the mid-levels of the atmosphere and bring an end to rain chances. But it now looks like that will not happen until Friday evening. So much of the day on Friday will be subject to (mostly) light or moderate rain showers. Chances are probably 60 or 70 percent. Highs will be in the low 60s. Rain chances drop Friday night, although not entirely, as lows sink into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks solidly pleasant, with ample sunny skies. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60s, and rising to around 70 degrees on Sunday.

Next week

We will see a warming trend next week, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees, by Tuesday. After that it seems likely that another front will push into the region. Some showers may be possible with this front, but the forecast is pretty fuzzy.

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Good morning, Houston. I can’t say that I expected to wake up early this morning to the pitter patter of rainfall, but here we are. After a dry summer and early fall November has proven to be far wetter than anticipated. It has rained more than half of the days this month in Houston, although this has mostly been lighter rain. This wet pattern will persist through Thanksgiving, which I am afraid put a damper on outdoor activities—unless your family’s holiday rituals involve cyclocross or rugby.

With that said, it is difficult to complain too much about the rain. This month’s soaking rains are helping lift the upper Texas coast out of a drought that began this summer. Since we will experience another La Niña winter—which tends to bring drier and warmer conditions here—I was concerned about this drought persisting into next spring, or summer. A wet month won’t completely extinguish the region’s drought, but it is certainly very helpful.

Tuesday

An atmospheric disturbance just offshore has hung around longer than expected this morning, somewhat like an unwanted house guest. This system is helping to produce ongoing light showers across much of the region south of Interstate 10. These showers may persist through the morning hours before finally dissipating. Inland areas may see a bit of sunshine this afternoon, but the coast is likely to remain mostly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight probably will drop to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday

This should be a fairly nice day, as November days go. We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 60s. Winds will veer to become more easterly, and this will start to increase atmospheric moisture levels, setting the stage for increasing rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday

It looks like I’ll be able to eat turkey for Thanksgiving, rather than crow. That’s because, in our initial Thanksgiving outlook eight days ago, I wrote, “So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather.” This forecast is going to verify. Thanksgiving is going to feel fairly muggy for November, with highs in the low 70s and dewpoints to match. The timing for rainfall on Thanksgiving remains a bit uncertain, but there looks to be a healthy chance of light to moderate showers throughout much of the morning, afternoon, and evening. We can’t exclude some heavier rain showers, and these are most likely north of Interstate 10. All told, most of the area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals.

Friday

The rains will end at some point on Friday, but it’s difficult to say whether that will be midnight, mid-morning, or early afternoon—something to consider if Black Friday shopping is in your plans. As a front moves through, we will see some clearing skies, eventually. Expect Friday morning to start out in the 50s, with a high somehwere in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

This looks like a fine, late fall weekend with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. Lows on Saturday and Sunday mornings will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and slightly warmer ones along the coast. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We should see a warming trend for the first half of next week, with highs getting back up to around 70 degrees, with moderate nights. After Thanksgiving, the rest of November looks fairly dry.

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Ten days ago a cold front blew into Houston, and since that time the region has experienced weather that is typical for the dead of winter, not late fall. The city’s warmest temperature during that timespan has been just 61 degrees, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Houston will face another chilly day or two before we start to warm up in time for Thanksgiving. Unfortunately that comes with a price: We’re increasingly confident of rainfall on the holiday.

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This is the final week of our annual fundraiser, and I want to genuinely thank everyone who has contributed so far. Matt and I work really, really hard on this site. Sure, some days there is almost nothing to talk about or forecast. But during inclement weather this is a full-time, full-tilt job. We plan our vacations around storms and weather—my family never vacations during August, for example. Our commitment to you is simple: We’ll be here when you need us. We’ll tell you when you need to worry about the weather, and we’ll tell you when you don’t. Our only goal is to be as accurate and transparent as possible. To support our efforts, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only.

Monday

If you like cold and dreary weather, then you’re having a banner November, and will enjoy more of the same today. Additional rainfall is inbound from the southwest this morning, as an upper level disturbance draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While this will make for a wet and gray day, I don’t think accumulations will be much over a quarter of an inch for most areas. Given the cold air and leaden skies, some areas may struggle to reach 50 degrees for a high temperature. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s.

Tuesday

High pressure will try to work its way southward on Tuesday, and this may help bring some breaks in the clouds. Some areas north of Interstate 10 might even see partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. Look for highs of around 60 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer where the sun breaks through for awhile. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 50 degrees with cloudy skies.

Wednesday

Winds start to shift to come from the southeast, and this will herald the return of a warmer onshore flow. Look for highs in the mid-60s for much of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night won’t drop too far into the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day

Alas, the forecast for the holiday is still a bit of a turkey, given ongoing uncertainty in the timing of the region’s next cold front. However the broad picture is pretty clear. The holiday should start out fairly warm in the morning, at around 60 degrees. Highs on Thanksgiving Day will push up to around 70 degrees. We are pretty confident that it’s going to rain at most locations in Houston on Thursday. The uncertainty comes in regard to timing and amounts, but generally expect better chances for areas inland of Highway 59/US 69 during the morning hours, and higher chances closer to the coast during the afternoon. As for accumulations, we might see anyhere from a few tenths of an inch to 1 to 2 inches. So yeah, if you’re having a big family gathering on the holiday, have a contingency for rain. Lows Thursday night generally should drop into the 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

In contrast to Thanksgiving, the rest of the holiday weekend looks fine and fall-like. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies from Friday through Sunday, with highs starting out in the low 60s on Friday and rising to around 70 by Sunday. Overnight lows should generally be in the 40s or lower 50s. Make your outdoor plans with confidence—and maybe a sweater for the evenings.

Good morning. Houston will continue to face winter-like weather through the weekend and into early next week. Of note: The forecast for Saturday looks particularly gloomy, with widespread showers, breezy conditions, and highs of perhaps only 50 degrees. We are increasingly confident that conditions will warm up next week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but the details are rather messy.

Thursday

Temperatures are generally in the 40s this morning with leaden skies. Away from the coast, those clouds should thin out later today, leading to partly sunny skies this afternoon. Where conditions do clear, highs will push up to around 60 degrees, with light northeasterly winds. With partially clearing skies, low temperatures tonight will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland.

Friday

We may see some more sunshine on Friday morning before clouds start to build during the late morning or afternoon hours. In the big picture, high pressure will be moving off to the east, to be replaced by an incoming cold front that will arrive later on Saturday. I expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-50s for much of the area, with a slight chance of light rain during the afternoon hours, and a slightly better chance Friday evening. Lows Friday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston.

Saturday

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, I am sorry. As the front pushes into the Houston area it will combine with low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico to make for a wet, windy, and cold day. Highs on Saturday may struggle to reach 50 degrees for some locations, and we’re not going to see much, if any sunshine. Winds may gust up to 20 mph from the northeast, with even more blustery conditions along the coast. Most of the area will see between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, with the bulk of it coming during the daytime on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the low 40s.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks slightly better, with only very slight rain chances. Still, expect mostly cloudy skies and highs only in the mid-50s. Winds will remain out of the northeast, albeit slightly less blowy than on Saturday.

Next week

Monday should be another cold, gray day with highs in the 50s. Some rain chances return, with perhaps of 40 percent likelihood of some light precipitation. After Monday it looks like the familiar onshore flow will finally return to the area, warming temperatures toward 70 degrees by midweek. As for Thanksgiving and beyond, it will all depend on the evolution of the next cold front and its associated storm system. There remains little clarity in the models on when that will move through, and whether it will bring any significant shower activity as far south as Houston. For now I’d lead toward a warmer, and possibly wetter Thanksgiving holiday. But that forecast remains about as firm as grandma’s Jell-O salad, which no one ever eats.

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