Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s weather will be cold and gray, with occasional light rain, for the next two days before sunshine returns on Sunday. By Monday we’ll begin a slow warming trend that will see our temperatures rebound toward more spring like-weather for awhile.

Friday

The weather for today, however, is just going to be rather grim. We’ll see some light showers moving from south to north this morning, and when its not raining skies will be gray. As a result, high temperatures today will only warm a few degrees above this morning’s lows, probably into the mid-40s for most. On top of this, winds will blow out of the north, gusting as high as 20 mph. Simply put, this isn’t going to be a day for outdoor activities. While rain chances slacken this afternoon and overnight, clouds will remain, with low temperatures perhaps falling to around 40 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring more of the same, with gray skies and a decent chance of light rain or misty precipitation moving in from the southwest throughout the day and overnight. Highs may reach about 50 degrees on Saturday, but skies will remain gray, with northeasterly winds. Lows Saturday night should drop into the low 40s.

Sunday

As high pressure starts to assert its influence over the region we’ll finally begin to see some breaks in the clouds, but this may not come until the afternoon hours. While the prospect of sunshine should allow highs to nudge up into the upper 50s, there will still be a northerly breeze at 10 to 15 mph that will keep things on the cool side. As skies clear, temperatures will drop on Sunday night, and possibly reach the mid- to upper-30s on Monday morning. A light freeze is not out of the question for some inland areas.

Next week

Highs will start out in the 60s on Monday next week, and probably end up around 80 degrees by the weekend. Similarly, Monday and Tuesday mornings will be quite chilly before lows reach around 60 degrees next weekend. Days will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, but for now there looks to be little if any rainfall through at least Thursday or Friday. Bottom line: It will be a nice contrast to this week’s gray and cold, and a promise of warmer things to come this spring.

Good morning. Cold, gray weather has descended upon the Houston metro area, and this will be our new normal until at least Sunday. To the northwest of the metro area, in Washington, Brazos, and Grimes counties, there is a winter weather advisory due to light freezing rain. These areas should warm sufficiently above freeze by around 9 am this morning for the threat to lift. For the rest of us the region should simply see cold and cloudy conditions, with intermittent light rain or drizzle for the next few days.

Thursday

Today will not see significant warming due to thick clouds, so expect highs in the upper 30s for far inland areas to the northwest, the low 40s for places like Katy and The Woodlands, upper 40s for central Houston, and lower 50s for the coast. Some light showers are possible this morning, but overall rain chances are probably less than 30 percent for most of the region today. The potential for some light rain increases a little bit tonight, so there may again be the threat of some light, freezing rain in places like Washington, Brazos, and Grimes counties to the northwest of the metro area. Lows in Harris County, and counties immediately surrounding it, should remain above freezing.

Friday

Expect another cold and gray day. Highs will generally reach the upper 40s for most of the area, with the further potential for some light rain, although for most of us there probably will just be clouds. Friday night will be cold again, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than Thursday night, with lesser rain chances.

Saturday

We should see more of the same, with leaden skies and highs perhaps around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler weather for inland areas. One more system will push through the area later on Saturday and Saturday night, bringing yet another decent chance of light rain overnight, as lows drop into the 40s.

Sunday

As high pressure starts to assert some control over our weather we should see partially clearing skies at some point on Sunday, with highs perhaps pushing into the upper 50s to 60 degrees. Rain chances should end during the morning hours. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the low 40s, give or take, with the clearing skies.

Next week

We’ll see a progression of warmer days next week, with highs probably somewhere in the 60s on Monday rising to around 80 degrees by next weekend. Skies look to be partly sunny, with no major issues to look out for at this point. This could be the transition from winter into spring.

Good morning. The first of two cold fronts has now pushed into the region, and this will set the stage for cold, gray, and occasionally wet winter weather for awhile. Do not expect to see much, if any, sunshine before Sunday. This is probably the region’s last prolonged bout with chilly weather, as spring is probably coming in March.

Wednesday

It is now clear that this week’s first front will make it all the way to the coast. As a result, temperatures today will be in the 50s for most of the area, with occasional light rain and cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. Low temperatures tonight will vary quite a bit across the region, from the mid-30s for far inland areas to the low 50s right along the coast.

Thursday

This will be a cool and gray day for the region, with high temperatures likely ranging from 45 to 60 degrees across Houston to go along with leaden skies. There is the possibility of some light rain on Thursday, but any showers that do develop should be scattered, and any amounts very light. Rain chances are better Thursday evening and overnight as another front pushes through, but any accumulations should again be slight, perhaps one-tenth of an inch, or so. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s.

Friday

A few showers may linger after the second frontal passage, but mostly I think we’ll just see cloudy skies on Friday. Highs will probably top out at around 50 degrees for most areas, with a northerly breeze that could gust to 20 or 25 mph. Rain chances drop to near zero by Friday night.

Saturday

This will be another chilly and gray day, with highs likely in the 50s. We’ll see one more healthy chance of light rain as an atmospheric disturbance moves overhead. This will precede yet another front that should cross the area Saturday night, and finally usher in some high pressure. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s.

Sunday and beyond

Under the influence of high pressure, skies should clear out some on Sunday, perhaps during the late morning or afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures to reach about 60 degrees. This will begin a slow warming trend, with most of next week seeing highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows in the 50s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. So if gray and cold is not your bag, baby, then next week should be more to your liking.

Before getting into the weather for this week, here’s a quick word in response to a question we’re getting a lot recently: Will there be any more freezes? I know it’s a question on your mind because I’ve been asked here, via email, and on Twitter, and Facebook during the last 24 hours. The answer is probably not; but not definitively not. Most of the Houston region has now passed the “average” date of its last freeze, so the odds of seeing freezing temperatures are less than 50 percent. However, the region has recorded freezes as late as April (see chart below).

With that said, I think the chances of seeing a freeze again this winter are low. While our weather will turn quite a bit colder from Friday through the middle of next week, it’s very likely not going to freeze in the metro area (College Station is another story, and could see a light freeze Friday morning). So we probably are safe through the first few days of March without a freeze. At that point the historical odds of a freeze fall below one-in-four. As is often the case with weather, our answer is probabilistic. In all likelihood, it’s not going to freeze at your house again this season, especially if you’re on the Gulf side of Interstate 10. But we’re not offering any money-back guarantees.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, with mostly overcast skies and temperatures nudging up into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south, and gusty at times, perhaps reaching 25 mph. Some very light, misty rain will be possible, but overall chances are fairly low. Tonight will be cloudy, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

Wednesday

In Monday’s post we discussed how the first front this week, arriving on Wednesday, was likely to stall out somewhere across the northern part of the Houston region. Well, things change. Now it appears as though the front will make a deeper push into Houston. Effectively this means that Tuesday will probably be the last really warm day this week as I now think the cold front will push all the way to the coast on Wednesday morning. If this happens, most of Houston away from the coast should wake up in the 40s or 50s on Wednesday, with daily highs only getting into the 60s. There is about a 50 percent chance of light rain during the day, but we don’t expect any meaningful accumulations.

Thursday

Our forecast continues to be uncertain for Thursday. While I think the bulk of the region will continue to see cooler air and cloudy skies, there is a non-zero chance that the front lifts back north and coastal areas see warmer and more muggy weather. However, for now I think most of Houston sees highs in the 60s, with more clouds and chances for misty to light precipitation. A reinforcing front should arrive on Thursday and push much further into the Gulf of Mexico, with lows dropping into the upper 30s for inland parts of Houston and lower 40s closer to the coast.

Friday

We’re confident that the entire region will be cold by Friday morning, with daytime highs likely topping out in the 50s, and another chilly night in the 40s for most. Skies will remain cloudy with a slight chance of light rain.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday will see more cool and cloudy weather, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and a chance of light rain. Sunday should finally see the return of partly sunny skies, and highs perhaps in the low 60s. Rain chances should be gone by then. Most of next week looks to yield partly sunny days with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. This could be the last extended stretch of winter-like weather for our region, so if that’s your jam, be sure and enjoy it.