Eric Berger

It is another pleasant, early fall morning outside with lows generally in the low 60s. We are going to continue our recent warming trend for a couple of more days before some moderate relief arrives in the form of a weak front on Saturday. So the weekend looks pretty nice.

I’m still hopeful that we will finally start to see a bit of rainfall next week—College Station has not received measurable rainfall since September 7th, and it’s been more than three weeks for most of the region. Matt will have more on this tomorrow, and the reemergence of drought conditions in the region.

Thursday

If you look on the radar this morning, you’ll actually see some showers offshore in association with a low pressure system. Alas the atmosphere over land is pretty dry still, and I don’t expect this precipitation to move inland. Instead, we’re likely to see partly sunny skies today, with highs around 90 degrees or a touch above. Winds will be light, out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will probably be a degree or two warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Friday will be similar to Thursday, although potentially just a bit warmer and with a few more clouds. Winds should again be light, generally out of the north. A weak front will move through late Friday and early Saturday morning, but it should hardly be noticeable as drier air will lag behind somewhat.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty alright in the wake of the front. You’re coming to the wrong place if you want chilly autumn weather in early October, and days should be in the upper 80s, with lower humidity. If that’s too hot for you, mornings and evenings should be rather pleasant, with somewhat drier air and lows in the low- to mid-60s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with rain chances near nil.

Columbus Day

If you’re off from school or work on Monday, it should basically be a continuation of Sunday’s weather, which is to say sunny and warm, and otherwise nice.

Later next week

Atmospheric moisture levels should be on the rise next week, with the potential infusion of tropical moisture, helping to finally return some decent rain chances to the region by Wednesday or Thursday. It’s too early to have much confidence in totals or accumulations—but I wouldn’t expect miracles. Nevertheless this is literally our first real chance for rainfall in weeks upon weeks, so it’s better than nothing. And in the “more good news” department, it still looks more probable than not that a stronger front pushes into Houston later next week, possibly setting the stage for a pleasantly chilly weekend in the October 15 timeframe. We’ll see.

Good morning. Our overall forecast remains more or less on track, with warming conditions ahead of a weak front this weekend, followed by the potential for a stronger front some time later next week. The good news is that while the next seven days or so do look dry, there is a pretty decent chance of some rainfall returning to the forecast by the middle of next week.

Wednesday

With high pressure more or less in control of our weather, we can expect highs today to reach near 90 degrees, with mostly sunny skies, to go along with light northeasterly winds. Rain chances are virtually zero. Once again, mornings and evenings should be fairly pleasant, with a modicum of drier air still hanging about. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland. If you find yourself sneezing today, it may be due to the ragweed levels, which are very high.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs reaching about 90 degrees, or a few ticks above, to go along with sunny skies. The air will continue to get a little bit more humid, but nothing like summertime in Houston, so mornings and evenings will still be pretty decent. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees both nights.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front arrives on Friday night or Saturday morning, but it will be difficult to tell right away. However behind the front more drier air will start to drift in, and this should become noticeable as the humidity drops. Saturday will warm to near 90 degrees, with sunny skies and drier air. Lows will drop into the 60s overnight. Sunday should be sunny and warm, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances, again, are pretty much nil. Plan any and all outdoor activities with confidence, and a measure of sunscreen.

Next week

The dry air is going to hold on through Monday, so expect another pretty nice day, with highs in the 80s and relatively lower humidity. However temperatures and atmospheric moisture levels will then start to rise, such that by Wednesday I bet we’re back to 90 degrees and a fair amount of humidity. What happens after that is still very much up for debate, but the most likely scenario is some combination of healthy rain chances—which my goodness, we certainly need—followed by hopefully a more robust front. That is far from locked into stone, but there’s a decent chance that overnight lows drop into the 50s next weekend.

Tropics

Yes, the Texas hurricane season is over. So you can stop reading at this point, if you like. However the overall tropics remain active. In the far Atlantic, Tropical Depression 12 has formed, but it is going to be a weak, short-lived storm everyone can safely ignore. A bit closer to home, another tropical system is likely to become a storm or hurricane as it crosses the southern Caribbean Sea. Eventually it is likely to move into Central America, where it could pose a distinct flooding and wind threat by Sunday or Monday.

Good morning. Houston’s weather will be fairly bland through next Wednesday or so, with a weak cool front providing a splash of drier air this weekend. Then, later next week, a stronger front will potentially bring some much-needed rainfall and a fair amount of cooler air. In between we’ll see warm days.

Tuesday

High pressure is in control of our weather right now, but because it is October and not August conditions will not be sweltering outside. Rather most of the region can expect to see highs in the upper 80s today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. Due to these rather calm atmospheric conditions, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has issued an Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria area for today. This means ozone levels could be unhealthy for sensitive groups. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-60s for the city, with slightly cooler conditions inland, and slightly warmer near the coast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three fairly warm days, with highs around 90 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Look for lows generally in the upper 60s. Rain chances, like for the rest of this week, will be near zero. As dewpoints start to creep up toward 70 degrees it is going to feel humid outside. It won’t be full-on summer humidity, but it will be more humid than the last week or so.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front arrives in time for the weekend. This won’t bring any rainfall, probably, but it should knock some of the humidity out of the air. Look for mostly sunny skies on Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s, and similarly sunny weather for Sunday, with highs in the mid-80s. The jury is still out on lows, but I think much of the area probably will get into the low 60s.

Next week

I think most of next week will probably see highs bounce back into the upper 80s, with plenty of sunshine. Things start to get interesting by Thursday or Friday, when the global models are suggesting that a stronger front may push into the region. There are some hopeful signs that this one could bring rainfall. This is still nine or ten days out, so take the forecast with a grain of salt—or maybe two. But I’m choosing to be hopeful.

There are two things I want to talk about before jumping into the forecast for this week—a forecast I would classify as not great, but far from terrible. To start with, I want to thank everyone who came out to our first Fall Day celebration at the Houston Botanic Garden on a gorgeous Sunday. We should get a final tally today, but I think 400 or 500 people came by to say hello, and it was just wonderful to meet you all.

Matt and I also want to say a huge thank you to Reliant, who went above and beyond to organize and support this event on short notice. Megan, Pat, and the events team there did a spectacular job of ensuring there were activities for kids, coffee and snacks, and finding the great location. It’s due to our long-term partnership with Reliant, now more than five years running, that we’re able to hold events like this.

If you were at the Fall Day event, you may have heard me announce what has been clear for awhile now—the 2022 Texas hurricane season is over. This is something we could have written last week, but it felt inappropriate to do so as Florida was getting slammed by Hurricane Ian.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but due to a variety of factors including a shifting jet stream at this time of year, it is rare for Texas to get struck by a hurricane after the end of September. This year, based on what we’re seeing in the tropics at present, should be no different. A freak storm is always possible, and we may see some tropical moisture at some point, but you should feel free to let your guard down. We made it!

Monday

I’m afraid this week won’t bring the same, absolutely splendid weather we saw at the end of September and early October. However, we’re not going back to full-on summer either. While the air will be more humid than last week, mornings and evenings will still be fairly pleasant.

High temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, with light winds out of the northeast at 5 mph or so. We may start to see some clouds higher in the atmosphere later today and tonight, and these will be related to Hurricane Orlene, a Category-2 storm in the Pacific making landfall in western Mexico today. Alas, we won’t see enough moisture from Orlene to bring much needed rainfall to our area. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

The story of the mid-week will be that of a slowly warming trend, with daytime highs rising from the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and overnight lows from the mid-60s to the upper-60s. However, in terms of humidity the dewpoints—a measurement of moisture in the atmosphere—are still going to remain in the 60s. What does this mean? Simply that while our air will feel more humid, it won’t be uncomfortably or oppressively so. Skies will be mostly sunny with, alas, very little chance of rain.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs will be around 90 degrees this Friday, but at some point later in the day, or overnight, a weak front should push into the area. Don’t expect miracles from this one. For starters, it seems unlikely to produce any rainfall. But it should knock the humidity back some, and trim a few degrees off our daytime and nighttime temperatures. Honestly, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s, this weekend should again be pretty nice.

I know you’re all wondering about rainfall. The bad news is that it’s still a ways off. The somewhat hopeful news is that, with the next front, which I would pencil in around October 13 or 14, the models do seem a little more bullish about rain chances. I would caution that this is 10 days out, so it lies at or just beyond the edge of our ability to predict. But I’m an optimist, so I’m saying there’s a chance …