We’ve been mentioning the possibility of some elevated rain chances beginning on Monday of next week, and now the forecast is coming into slightly better focus.
A surface cold front will move off the northern Gulf coast into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and once there it may find favorable conditions for some kind of development. We think it probably will remain a low pressure system, but there is a chance it could become a tropical depression or even less likely, a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center gives the Gulf blob a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
Given the steering flow at present in the Gulf of Mexico, and retreating high pressure over Texas, this low-pressure system will most likely track westward across the Gulf. This would bring increasing rain chances to the upper Texas coast, including Houston, beginning later on Monday and through Wednesday. I must stress that at this time these rains look nothing but beneficial for our parched region.
Accumulations are nearly impossible to forecast given the uncertainty at this point, but I’d guess most of the Houston region will receive 0.5 to 3 inches of rain, with a greater likelihood of rain near the coast. By Tuesday the increasing cloud cover should also drive daily temperatures back to around 90 degrees for a couple of days. Eventually this system should move west, clearing our area by later on Wednesday or Thursday.
Houston will see two more days of excessive heat before things start to cool off slightly. (Weather Bell)
As ever, tropical systems are dynamic, so we’ll be watching this closely. If the situation changes, we’ll update you on Sunday. If not, look for our regular post on Monday morning.
App note
We’re aware of an issue with the Space City Weather app in which it is not displaying the most current posts on some devices. Our developer has identified the bug and is working to push out an update soon. Please accept our apologies for the issue.
Be brave, my friends. After an exceptionally warm June—there is no question this month will smash Houston’s previous record for hottest June ever—we are approaching the crescendo of this heat wave. The next four days will all bring the possibility of 100-degree temperatures for the metro area, with baking sunshine, before a possible reprieve early next week.
Also, we’ve been asked a lot whether the record heat this June is predictive of abnormally warm conditions for the remainder of the summer. Matt has done some research on this, and will write about it tomorrow. The answer is hopeful.
Thursday
As expected, our region saw some scattered showers on Wednesday, and that likely will be the case today, although coverage should be more isolated. The main reason for less coverage is that high pressure is building again over the region and that will impair some passing atmospheric disturbances from getting too much traction. Rain chances appear best this afternoon along, and north, of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 100 degrees.
Friday’s high temperatures will not be much fun. (Weather Bell)
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
These will be three baking hot days, with high temperatures of 100 degrees, or slightly higher, for nearly all of the metro area away from the coast. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances virtually non-existent. A more southwesterly flow, instead of winds directly off the Gulf of Mexico, should help with humidity levels a bit. Even so, there are a number of outdoor activities this weekend, including Pride celebrations in downtown Houston, during the middle of the day. We really urge you to take heat and sunshine precautions during the exceptionally hot weather this weekend.
Next week
We’re not promising any miracles next week, but things should finally change. A front of sorts should push into the region on Monday, helping to open our atmosphere up to a few passing disturbances. By later Monday or Tuesday this should lead to the formation of a few more clouds, and push daily rain chances up to 30 or 40 percent. In addition, high temperatures probably will drop back into the mid-90s, if not even lower. The details on this are still fuzzy, but the end of June will probably, finally, feel like what most of June should have felt like.
Tropics awakening?
Typically, during this time of year, wind shear runs high in a central Atlantic Ocean area called the “main development region” for tropical storms and hurricanes. This is the place where low pressure systems that move off of Africa during the summer can regularly form into tropical storms during the months of August and September. I say August and September, because wind shear is usually hostile to storm formation before then. (This is also why hurricane activity peaks during August and September).
Tropical weather outlook for Thursday morning. (National Hurricane Center)
However, as we’re seeing lower wind shear now in the main development region, it is possible we may start to see these “Cape Verde” storms coming off of Africa and developing earlier this year. To that end, the National Hurricane Center is watching development of a possible tropical wave there five to seven days from now. This is something to watch, but not worry about at this time.
You know the heat is getting to us when we resort to a gimmick like this. But with high pressure holding sway for our weather over the next several days, there’s just not much else to to say. So we’re publishing a list of the reasons—some tongue in cheek, some not—of why we ought to be thankful for this heat and drought. We received hundreds of great suggestions, so thank you to everyone who shared them with us. Without further ado …
10. The BBQ pit heats up far more quickly. Some afternoons you can even dispense with the wood or coals.
9. Roadwork and other construction projects aren’t delayed due to weather.
8. High pressure buffers the region from any hurricanes that might form.
7. Your dogs won’t track in mud from the back yard.
6. If you have children, you can wow them with stories about the good old days when you played outside all summer long.
5. Sunshine and long days produce a solar energy bonanza.
4. Whenever it rains again, if it ever rains again, psychologically it’s going to feel so amazing.
3. Maybe, just maybe, the extreme heat radiating from roads and parking lots, even into the night, will discourage a few potential catalytic converter thieves.
2. No rain means far fewer mosquitoes are out there biting in the evening.
And the no. 1 reason why this heat and drought ain’t such a bad thing is that you now have a medical reason to eat ice cream—hey doc, it’s helping to keep my core temperature down!
Wednesday
Tuesday’s high temperature “only” reached 98 degrees in Houston, and that’s probably about where things will top out today. Like on Tuesday, we should also see some isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning and into the afternoon hours, with a 20 to 30 percent chance. Once again, if you get hit, you should feel fortunate, as the next street over might get nothing. Winds will be light, primarily out of the southeast.
Thursday
As high pressure intensifies it will tamp down on rain chances, but I think there’s still the potential for an isolated shower or two. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs near 100 degrees.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
It will be hot, sunny, and humid. Look for highs of about 100 degrees each day, possibly in the low 100s for inland areas.
High temperature forecast for Saturday. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Conditions could start to change by Monday or Tuesday of next week, as a weak front moves into the area and brings more clouds, and perhaps nudges rain chances back up to 20 or 30 percent. This should be enough to bring high temperatures down into the upper 90s, or possibly even mid-90s with enough clouds. It is also possible that rain chances will be even higher, and temperatures lower, but it’s difficult to have too much confidence in such a hopeful forecast this far out. But some sort of change, at least, does appear to be on the way.
Welcome to the summer solstice. Today is the longest day of the year, and the point at which the sun reaches the highest point in the sky. At 1:23 pm today, the sun will climb to an altitude of 84 degrees, reaching very nearly directly overhead. By contrast, in December, the sun’s peak altitude is as low as 37 percent. This high sun angle is why it is so important to wear sunscreen during the middle of the day in summer, but there is a brighter side of the story.
You may have noticed—it would be hard to miss, really—that it has been hot and sunny outside this summer. While summers are not always like this, when high pressure systems build over the Southern plains states, we see days and days of sunshine. This helps make Texas one of the sunniest states in the nation, with an average of 2,850 hours of sunshine a year.
The good news is that we can actually put that sunshine to use by gathering some of it for solar energy, and it is increasingly easy to do this. In this post, which is created through our partnership with Reliant, I want to talk about some of these ways you can put the Sun to work for you.
Put the sun to work. (Reliant Energy)
Solar stats
As the state grows, so does its energy needs. And especially during these warmer months, when the sun reaches the highest point in the sky, solar energy is helping to power our life-saving air conditioning units. Last summer, solar energy provided about 4 percent of the state’s electricity needs, and that may nearly double this summer. Let’s start with some basic information about solar power in Texas, sourced from the Solar Energy Industies Association:
$16.6 billion: Total solar energy investment in Texas
1.7 million: Number of homes in Texas powered by solar energy
506: Number of solar energy companies in Texas
50 percent: Decrease in price of solar energy during the last decade
4 GW: Amount of new solar energy capacity to be installed in the next five years
1: State ranking in solar power generation in 2021
Understanding solar: utility scale vs. residential
There are two primary ways in which the sun’s energy is collected: residential solar power and utility-scale solar farms. Residential solar is spread around communities, made up of solar panels installed on roofs, or mounted on the ground, and is typically connected to the local utility distribution grid. Utility-scale means a centralized solar farm connected to the grid that sells generated energy back to the local wholesale utility, rather than end-use customers.
Both means of generating solar energy are helping to fuel growth in the state. And depending upon your home, lifestyle, and budget either might be an option for your electricity needs.
Solar hows
There are several ways for electricity consumers to get involved with solar energy, and save money in the process.
Without rooftop Panels
Support solar energy with your existing electricity plan. Reliant offers an easy option for customers to “Make It Solar” to support clean, renewable energy while keeping their existing plan the exact same. No panels required, you can live in a house or apartment that you own or rent. Customers simply add “Make It Solar” to their preferred electricity plan for $9.99/month. Or for those enrolling in any Truly Free electricity plan, it’s an automatic, free upgrade.
Enroll in a Plan Designed to Support Renewable Energy in Texas. Even without the commitment of installing panels, Reliant’s 100% Solar plan supports renewable energy and offers customers a stable fixed rate. When you sign up, 100 percent of your electricity usage will be matched with solar renewable energy certificates, which provide another source of revenue for solar power companies. These certificates signify that renewable energy equal to your usage has been generated and sent to the electric grid—so you’re not required to install solar panels on your roof.
With rooftop panels
Make the Most of Your Panels’ Power
If you already have solar panels, you can earn bill credits to make the most of your power. With the Reliant Solar Payback plan, you’ll receive bill credits up to your monthly usage when your solar panels generate excess energy and return it to the electric grid.
Backup Power Solutions
Harnessing Solar During an Outage
Solar can also provide peace-of-mind and serve as back-up power during an outage. Reliant’s sister company Goal Zero offers a range of solar-powered back-up power options, ranging from portable and mountable panels to portable chargers and generators. I used one of these to power some basic necessities, including a few laptops, during the Valentine’s Day freeze of 2021.
As we make it through this particularly sunny summer, know that the sun is helping create a cleaner, greener Texas. You can learn more about solar power and energy choices from Reliant atreliant.com/solar.
