Eric Berger

Good morning. The showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening represented the last gasp of our region’s wet pattern, and we are now moving into a drier period. The region has also passed the worst of summer—what I call “high summer”—and we’re now into “late summer.” This means temperatures will still be warm to hot, but not excruciatingly so, and we can start to look for a few fronts to pass through. The first such front is in the cards for early next week, but unfortunately it is not a particularly strong one.

Thursday

An upper-level low pressure system that helped drive Wednesday’s rainfall has shifted east, so while we will still see a few showers and thunderstorms later today they should be much more scattered in nature. Rain chances will be best, perhaps 20 to 30 percent, along and south of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures of around 90 degrees, plus or minus a degree or two. Winds will be light out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees north of Houston, with temperatures warming the closer one gets to the coast.

Friday

At this point Friday looks a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances probably fall below 20 percent this weekend, so look for mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low 90s on both days. If you have outdoor activities planned, you should be good to go. We’re expecting a weak front the push towards the area later on Sunday, and this boundary will probably move through overnight. At this point it looks like a dry frontal passage, but we’re not 100 percent sure of that.

Next week

Don’t expect a significant cool down behind the front. It’s just not strong enough. However, the front should bring a modicum of drier air, helping to bring nighttime temperatures down a few degrees, especially for inland areas. This slightly drier air will be most noticeable during evenings and mornings. Highs look to remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances may start to creep back into the forecast toward the weekend—or not.

Tropics

I hate to sound like a broken record, but in this case it’s a good thing. While there are two active storms in the Atlantic, neither is a significant threat to landmasses as Hurricane Earl is now expected to pass to the east of Bermuda. Looking across the deep tropics, and the storm-forming region near the coast of Africa, I don’t see anything that is likely to threaten the Gulf of Mexico. Probably our biggest threat, therefore, is a storm forming locally, in the northern Gulf of Mexico from the remains of a front. But again, there’s just no support right now for such a possibility in models. Things just look good, y’all.

After a very dry spring and start to summer, August brought beneficial rains to the entire region. Parts of the Houston metro area, particularly in Brazoria and Galveston counties, remain in a moderate drought as of this writing, but we have come a long way over the last 30 days. This is especially true as August is typically our hottest and potentially driest month, so we just got through the worst time of year for drought. If you’re wondering how your area stacks up, the map below shows “percent of normal” rainfall for the 30 days preceding September 6. Pretty much the entire western half of the metro area received 200 percent or more of normal rainfall, with most of the eastern half recording 125 to 200 percent.

All good things must come to an end, however, and after today the next two weeks look fairly dry. This does not necessarily signal that we’re going to enter into a prolonged dry spell, but it does mean the frequent rainfall we’ve seen in recent weeks should now subside.

Wednesday

Houston will have another shot at rainfall today, however. I’d peg chances at about 40 percent as an upper-atmospheric disturbance helps generate lift. Look for showers to start out up north later today and then drop down toward the metro area. None of these storms look severe, but you could see a briefly heavy shower. Rain chances fall back this evening. Otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

These days should see lower rain chances as the disturbance moves away from the area. Call it a 20 percent chance for each day, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll also see winds veer to come more out of the east-northeast, and this should moderate temperatures slightly so that we see highs of around 90 degrees. Overnight lows should drop into the low 70s for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, and mid- to upper-70s near the coast. This won’t be great, but it won’t be terrible either.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with sunny skies and about a 20 percent chance of daily showers. Highs will be in the low 90s, with nights generally in the 70s.

Next week

We’re still looking at the potential for a front to make it through early next week, and at this point I think it’s likely that something will push into Houston and off the coast on Monday. Please set your expectations accordingly, as this front is probably not going to bring significantly cooler air. But for a day or two we may see some drier air, which should make mornings and evenings feel somewhat—dare I say it?—kind of almost pleasant? Look for highs of 90 degrees for most of next week with low rain chances.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on right now, but over at least the next week or so there is very little of concern for the United States. This is an amazing place to be as we approach the absolute peak of hurricane season on September 10.

It was the best of times: The start of September has continued the trend of August, with slightly cooler than normal weather for the Houston metro area. Plenty of rain, which has fallen without provoking widespread flooding, has largely extinguished the severe drought conditions that had started to encircle our area this summer. And with only about three or four weeks left in the heart of hurricane season for Texas, we still don’t see any real threats in the near future.

It was the worst of times: Fall is so close in September you can taste it, but the painful reality is that summer just isn’t over yet. Houston has a chance to see a decent cold front next week—more on that below—but fall remains over the horizon. We’ve got at least another month during which 90-degree days will be more common than not. The air has also been rather humid of late, and a distinct lack of a breeze has provided little relief from temperatures or the swarming mosquitoes.

The next line of Charles Dickens’ fine novel A Tale of Two Cities is, “it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” As always, we’re aiming more for wisdom than foolishness on Space City Weather. You can be the judge.

Tuesday

Today should bring a continuation of what we saw over the second half of Labor Day Weekend. This means that shower activity will be largely confined to the coastal areas of the region, with the possibility for a few storms to migrate inland to about Interstate 10 this afternoon. For areas further inland, any shower activity will be pretty isolated. Accordingly we should see highs in the upper 80s for coastal areas, and lows in the lower 90s for most of the rest of Houston. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at about 5 mph. So far this month the average wind speed in Houston has been less than 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Overall there is not too much to report, weather-wise, for the remainder of the week. Wednesday will probably bring the best chance of rain to the region, with coverage of about 40 percent of the area, followed by lesser rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Highs will hover around 90 degrees, or slightly above this week, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the mid-70s for most.

Saturday and Sunday

This rather sedate pattern should persist into the weekend, which probably means highs of around 90 degrees, fairly sunny skies, and rain chances of perhaps 10 to 30 percent for both days. So if you’re planning any outdoor activities you can have reasonable confidence.

Next week

Will it or won’t it? That’s the question when it comes to a potential cool front around one week from today. There is a lot of support for a decent front—think lows in the 60s, with drier air—around September 13 in the ensembles of the European model. However there is almost no signal for this front in the North American GFS model. Looking at the overall pattern, I think it supports the idea that we could see a front make it down to Houston next week, but it is no slam dunk. This forecast should become clearer in the next day or two. Should the front make it, the effect will be fairly short lived, as one would expect in mid-September.

Tropics

There’s a lot going out there, and soon-to-be Hurricane Earl is a threat to Bermuda later this week. But none of these systems appear to pose any threat to the United States or Caribbean Islands. Moreover there is nothing in the models to suggest that will change soon. Here in Texas, we probably are three or four weeks away from being in the clear when it comes to hurricanes, so fingers crossed!

August is almost invariably the worst month of the year, weather-wise, in Houston. Temperatures are either blazing hot with drought-like conditions, or we see flooding due to tropical moisture. Our air is often at its muggiest during the month. And almost always we see our most sweltering days and warmest nights of the year during the eighth month of the Julian calendar, named after the Roman emperor Augustus.

But not this year! In a rarity, both June (average temperature of 86.7 degrees) and July (88.0 degrees) topped the average temperature for August this month, 85.0 degrees. This month ranks just slightly below the “normal” August temperature as measured over the last 30 years of 85.2 degrees. The average temperature is calculated by adding the daily high, and the daily low, and dividing by two.

This August has seen cooler days than normal, due to persistent cloud cover and rain-cooled air, and nights that were slightly warmer than normal. We also received enough rain to break our emerging drought, but not enough to cause significant flooding. The bottom line is that after an exceptionally hot start to the summer of 2022, August was comparatively pleasant. And that’s something I thought I would never write about the month of August, in the city of Houston.

Looking ahead to September, we will see a continuation of this wetter and cooler-than-normal weather as our rather rainy pattern continues. For now we don’t have concerns about widespread flooding, but as always we could see some streets fill up with water during intense downpours.

Thursday

The first day of September will bring partly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Of the days during the next week, today probably has the lowest chance of rain, but I still think 40 or 50 percent of the Houston region will see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon amid daytime heating. Some of these storms could be briefly intense, with the best chances for inclement weather along and north of Interstate 10. Storms should fade as evening comes on. Winds will be light, perhaps only at 5 mph, from the east.

Friday

Friday should be similar to Thursday, albeit with a few more clouds, and rain chances of perhaps 50 to 60 percent. While we will see a weak front advancing southward toward Houston, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels, the best chances for heavy rain will not come until this weekend.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Well, you can’t say we didn’t warn you. For awhile now, we’ve been suggesting that Labor Day Weekend in Houston will be soggy, and we’re sticking to that story. Daily rain chances on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be upwards of 80 percent, with the potential for intermittent heavy rainfall as the aforementioned boundary stalls out over the region. Look for daily highs in the 80s, with nighttime temperatures in the 70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Overall, I think most of the area will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Labor Day, but of course some isolated areas probably will see more. This should not be enough precipitation to cause significant flooding problems, but given the tropical air mass this is something we’ll be monitoring for you.

Next week and beyond

Rain chances will remain elevated for much of next week, it looks like, and this should help to keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees. There will probably be some periods when we see sunshine later next week, but it’s impossible to say when.

Now that we’re in September, we can start to realistically look for fall’s first cold that brings drier and cooler air into the region. There is nothing concrete in the forecast models, but there are hints at the possibility of such a front by around September 13 to 15. Right now I’d peg the chances of such a front actually making it at about 25 percent, but some hope is better than no hope I would say. Our first front typically comes during the second half of September.

Tropics

After nearly two months of dormancy—the tropics have seen near historic levels of low activity through August this year—things are starting to pick up with a Tropical Depression in the central Atlantic Ocean and several other systems that could develop in the coming days. The very good news is that none of these systems appear likely to threaten the United States or Gulf of Mexico during the next week or 10 days, if not further. So this is a great place to be as we get very near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.