Good morning. Houston has one more week of exceptionally hot September weather before the pattern should change, with an increasing likelihood of a decent front pushing into the region. In this post we’ll also discuss the potential for a tropical system to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Tuesday
Temperatures maxed out in the low- to mid-90s across Houston on Monday, and conditions will be similar today under mostly sunny skies. But whereas about 20 percent of the region saw a passing shower or thunderstorm, that number is probably 10 percent today. And if you think that is low, wait until you see the precipitation forecast for the remainder of the week. Winds will be light, out of the east at about 5 mph. Lows tonight should drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday
Look for sunny conditions, and highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be near zero.
Thursday and Friday
A ridge of high pressure will reach its peak toward the end of this week, and it’s going to push high temperatures to the upper 90s, and for some inland locations, possibly 100 degrees. This is very late in the year for such hot days. In nearly 150 years of records, the latest 100-degree day ever recorded during the calendar came on September 27, 2005. (Friday is September 23). Rain chances are zero each day, with sunny skies.
Saturday and Sunday
As the aforementioned ridge starts to retreat a bit, we’ll see high temperatures back off slightly. But I’d still anticipate highs in the mid-90s, with sunny skies, on Saturday and Sunday. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Sunday, but at this point I’d peg chances at 20 percent or less.
Next week
While the pattern is not yet set in stone, it now appears likely that a cold front will push through on Monday or so of next week, and this should bring some notably drier and cooler air. Don’t expect miracles from the first front of the year, but we should see nighttime temperatures drop into the 60s for inland areas, with dewpoints comfortably in the 50s.
Tropics
Fiona is now a major hurricane pulling northward of the Dominican Republic, and it will affect Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas today. In a few days, the storm could threaten Bermuda.
Of more interest to the continental United States is a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean, a day or two away from entering the Caribbean Sea. Global models have become more bullish on the development of this system during the last 24 hours, and it has a plausible path to reach the Gulf of Mexico in a week or ten days from now. Here’s a map of the European ensembles for this system, one week from today:
There is good agreement here about a tropical system reaching the western Caribbean Sea early next week. Importantly, this is about as far as we can reasonably rely on model guidance. After five to seven days, the accuracy of such models breaks down. And indeed, when we run the forecast forward just two days, to Thursday September 29, there is an extremely wide variance of outcomes. Some of the models start to turn the storm northward toward Florida, and others continue to push it westward toward the Gulf of Mexico, where it could wind up anywhere from Mexico to the Florida peninsula.
So what does all this mean for Texas? We are fast reaching the time of year when it is less likely for storms to track into Texas, but that does not mean it’s impossible. In this case, the models are sending a strong signal that this system will develop in the Caribbean Sea, and become a tropical storm or a hurricane. After that time it may very well move into the Gulf of Mexico, but there are just too many variables to sort out before we can have any confidence in where it will go. Our best forecasting tools are just not up to the task of delineating a clear track for a tropical system that has not yet formed, nine or ten days from now.
Bottom line: If you’re living near the Texas coast, this is not something I would lose too much sleep over. But it’s definitely worth watching, and we’ll be doing just that.
Curious as to where the “border” is between the Carribean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
I always figured it was a line between the tip of the Yucatán to the tip of Cuba
You reference August in the body of your post and the Weathernerds charts also reference August.
Eric, as you watch the Caribbean system form, is there something you’re looking for over the next TWO days that would be significant to Houston?
I think you mean 9/29, not Thursday 8/29.
Exactly what I was going to write.
I’m wondering when it would possibly hit the TX coast, if it does. Assuming on Thursday 9/29 it’s off the NW Yucatan, is that another 2 or 3 days to cross the Gulf and hit TX? So we’d be looking at a storm on 10/1 or 10/2, but we might have a cold front come through the week before that and render it almost impossible?
I’m under the impression that the cold front has to be actually there, and physically block the storms that come by..This very mild cool front is supposed to be here and gone before the invest even makes it into the Gulf..
Not impossible but close to it.
It’s not unprecedented to have an October storm, but from that presumed angle and direction, might be.
“Our best forecasting tools are just not up to the task of delineating a clear track for a tropical system that has not yet formed, nine or ten days from now.”
Don’t we all wish that were not the case? But it is, unfortunately. That’s why I am very thankful for you guys at Space City Weather and your mission of hype free forecasts and discussion. As hard and stressful as it may be, (and believe me, I understand) we have to take it one day at a time. And you guys help make it a little easier. Hopefully that helps someone.
Won’t the front that is coming into the region block any hurricane activity from reaching Houston?
The American Ensembles favor a more northern Florida turn
For now… the most recent runs still have Florida landfall, but they have been slowing moving west near Fl panhandle. Would not be surprised as days go on the landfall gets closer to TX
It hasn’t changed much and it could be “windshield wiping”. I think the American goes strongly for that cold front.
The cool front is supposed to come and go ahead of the tropical mischief..So it probably won’t be there when we need it…
Love it. Thanks guys for FINALLY bringing us some HOPE for heavy rain. Even a TS would be wonderful. A bullseye is very very unlikely so why worry so much.
“Bottom line: If you’re living near the Texas coast, this is not something I would lose too much sleep over.” That’s very reassuring, however if one should be visiting the house of the mouse between this week and early October, should one worry? (Asking for a friend who REALLY doesn’t want to have to reschedule)
Time for Katy to evacuate?