Eric Berger

Good morning. After a chilly start this morning, with temperatures in the upper 40s across much of the region, we’ll see a warming trend over the next two days. Then a cold front on Thanksgiving will bring rain and sharply dropping temperatures Thursday night. This next front should then linger longer, with cooler nights sticking around for awhile.

Tuesday

Here’s the most important thing to know about the weather today: The Harry Styles concert is a go. This concert was postponed once, during 2020, due to the pandemic. Then it was rescheduled for September 13, but had to be postponed again as that was the night Hurricane Nicholas made landfall. (It’s difficult for me to believe, but Nicholas and its winds were only a little more than two month ago). Well, Harry is back, and the weather could not be nicer.

High temperatures will reach about 70 degrees today beneath sunny skies, with light winds out of the southeast. With the return of this onshore flow, temperatures will be more mild tonight, dropping into the upper 50s. There is no chance of rain.

Wednesday

Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday, with highs likely pushing into the upper 70s. As southeasterly winds persist, moisture levels will rise, and we’ll see partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows on Wednesday will only drop into the mid- to upper-60s for most. Some light showers, generally north and west of Houston, will be possible after midnight.

Thanksgiving

The holiday will dawn warm and muggy, and it seems like some fog may be possible as dewpoints match temperatures in the morning. There are still questions about timing, but my best guess right now is that a fairly organized line of storms sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast, reaching College Station around sunrise, central Houston by or before noon, and pushing off the coast some time during the afternoon. These showers, thunderstorms, and winds could briefly be intense as these storms pass through, bringing accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. You’ll want to have some cover as they pass.

Drier air will blow in pretty quickly after the storms move through, with gusts out of the north likely reaching 20 mph or higher. Lows Thursday night will drop into the upper 40s for all but the urban core of Houston and coastal areas.

Friday

This will be a chilly day, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs of around 60 degrees. Temperatures Friday night should be the coldest of the week, dropping into the upper 30s for inland areas such as parts of Montgomery County, with 40s across much of the remainder of the area.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast for the weekend is now coming into better focus. Saturday should be cloudy, with highs of around 60 degrees. A passing disturbance may bring some rainfall later on Saturday or Saturday night—the only good thing about this is that it will give me a chance to write “cold November rain” as lows drop into the 40s. Rain chances probably will decrease on Sunday, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s.

Most of next week should see highs around 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s. Rain chances remain low until the latter half of the week. Fall is going to stick around for awhile with this front.

Fundraiser

We’re in the home stretch of our annual fundraiser, but there’s still a few more days to stock up on merchandise or make a donation! Thank you so much.

Good morning! We’re entering the last full week of our annual fundraiser, which is your one opportunity each year to support the work we do. Click here to buy merchandise or make a donation. Thank you for your help!

Temperatures have generally dropped into the upper 50s this morning in the wake of a cool front. A warmup will begin Wednesday, and we’ll see a pair of warmer days in the middle of the week before another cooldown ahead of next weekend. Unfortunately the forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday still looks messy, with widespread showers likely due to an abundance of atmospheric moisture. Read on for full details.

Monday

Skies will be partly sunny today as winds blowing at about 10 mph continue to bring in drier northerly air. This will cap highs at about 70 degrees and set the stage for a chilly night. lows should drop into the 40s for most of the region except for the urban core of Houston and coastal areas.

Tuesday

This will be a fine, fine day with highs of around 70 degrees, sunny skies, and light winds turning southerly. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be about 10 degrees warmer due to the onshore flow resuming, but there will still be a slight chill in the air.

Wednesday

Conditions will be warmer and somewhat muggier on Wednesday with an entrenched southerly flow. Even so, highs will likely only top out in the upper 70s. (If the high temperature does reach 80 degrees, I think it will be our region’s last 80-degree day for awhile). Although we’ll see more clouds on Wednesday, I think rains should hold off until at least late Wednesday night. Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 60s. If you’re traveling in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday, it looks like there will be few problem spots across the country.

Thanksgiving Day

There’s going to be a grand total of one messy day this week, weather-wise, and wouldn’t you know it’s going to be on the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will start off warm, and will likely rise into the mid-70s. Right now there are still some questions about timing, but it appears likely that the majority of our region will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall between sunrise and sunset on Thanksgiving, with showers and thunderstorms progressing from northwest to southeast across Houston. The majority of the rain should be offshore by Thursday evening, with colder and drier air moving in behind. Lows on Thursday night should drop to around 50 degrees, so bring a sweater if you’re going Black Friday shopping.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday should be mostly sunny and cooler, with highs in the 60s, and Friday night should be chilly, in the 40s area-wide. Unfortunately we’re not entirely sure what to expect this weekend. Highs probably will be in the 60s, but there is the potential for an atmospheric disturbance or two to rotate through. For now I’m rolling with a 30 percent chance of rain each day, but we’ll have to fine-tune that as we go along.

If you’re interested, Maria and I will be discussing the Thanksgiving weather in a little bit greater depth this morning at 9 am in a Facebook live.

A cold front is moving through Houston this morning, and should push off the coast within about an hour of sunrise. For those who like fall weather in Houston this is a good thing—the high temperature at Hobby Airport reached 87 degrees on Wednesday, setting a record for the location. Bush International Airport, Galveston, and College Station narrowly missed setting records. But now that’s passed, with cooler and fairer weather ahead.

Thursday

As anticipated, this morning’s frontal passage has largely been a dry affair. Drier air will move in today on winds of 10 to 15 mph from the north and northwest. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the early afternoon, helping to limit highs to about 70 degrees, but there should be some clearing later today. Skies tonight will be partly cloudy allowing lows to drop into the upper 40s, with cooler temperatures inland, and slightly warmer ones right along the coast.

I mentioned the possibility of clouds tonight as there is a partial lunar eclipse that runs from about midnight to 6 am, with a peak at 3:02 am CT locally. At that time Earth’s shadow will darken 97 percent of the Moon’s surface. The bottom line is that there should be enough breaks in the clouds to see the eclipse if you’re up late tonight, or early on Friday.

Friday

This will be a splendid late fall day, with light northerly winds and highs in the mid-60s. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows will probably be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend has no weather concerns. After the cool start, temperatures will warm into the mid-70s with partly to mostly sunny skies. As winds shift to come from the south, lows on Saturday night will only drop into the 60s for most of the region.

Sunday

This day should see a few more clouds, and more humidity, as highs push into the upper 70s to 80 degrees. It now appears as though another front will move through on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could bring at least a broken line of showers with it. Any rain accumulations should be fairly light, however. Lows overnight should drop into the 50s, with drier air moving in.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look clear and cool next week, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Unfortunately, we’re still anticipating a messy pattern during the middle of next week, with the passage of a cold front later on Wednesday or on Thanksgiving Day. With fairly high atmospheric moisture levels, I expect to see some rainfall along with, and possibly after the passage of this front. As we’re still a week out I don’t have too much confidence in the details, but showers and thunderstorms certainly seem like a distinct possibility at some point on Thanksgiving. Conditions will be warm ahead of the front, with temperatures dropping afterward, and lows in the 40s likely at the end of next week.

Fundraiser

Just a quick word to say that we’re still raising money for 2022 for Space City Weather with our annual fundraiser. You can buy merchandise or simply donate funds for the site. We truly appreciate your generosity.

Houston will see one more warm day before more fall-like conditions return with a cold front arriving early on Thursday. This will bring a significantly drier shot of air into the region on Thursday night and Friday morning, with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s. Mostly sunny and somewhat warmer conditions return for the weekend, with uncertainty ahead for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday

Before we get to the drier air, however, we’ll see fairly muggy conditions today—by November standards at least. Temperatures this morning are only slightly below 70 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies temperatures this afternoon will probably get into the low- or possibly mid-80s for some areas. I’m tempted to say this is the warmest day left in the year, but Sunday may also see highs of about 80 degrees so I’m not going to make any firm predictions. Winds will be fairly light today, generally out of the south. Lows will be sticky again tonight ahead of the front.

Thursday

As for the front, roughly speaking it should reach the College Station area around midnight or shortly thereafter, push into central Houston between 5 and 7 am CT, and reach the coast between 7 and 9 am. Some scattered showers will be possible with the front, but nothing too heavy or lasting too long. Any rains will probably end quickly as drier air moves in. Highs on Thursday should max out in the low 70s, with clearing skies during the afternoon. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday night will be the coldest of the week, so if you’re participating in the Sleep Out event for Covenant House, be sure and have an extra blanket. Lows will likely drop to 50 degrees, or slightly lower, in Houston with winds out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy. Further inland, lows may drop into the low 40s.

Friday

A fine late fall day, with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be generally light. Lows Friday night will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

After a cool start, temperatures on Saturday should climb into the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees, and then Sunday should be warmer with highs of around 80 degrees and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Another front should arrive on Sunday night, probably around midnight but there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Overall rain chances with this front are fairly low, but not zero.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be clear and cooler before a warming trend begins again Wednesday. Then, all eyes are on the next front and its implications for Thanksgiving. We’ve had several questions about outdoor events, such as the Houston Turkey Trot on Thanksgiving morning. Due to the pandemic, many of these activities were put on hiatus last year, but are now returning. So will Mother Nature cooperate?

The big picture is fairly clear: A front will be moving toward our region on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but we still have questions about how quick (or slow) and dry (or wet) its passage will be. At this point I’m thinking we’ll see a slower moving front, making for a gray Thanksgiving Day with a healthy chance of rain. We’re not looking at inches and inches of rain, I don’t think, but there may be enough precipitation to put a damper on outdoor events at some point during the day. After the front moves through things probably will cool down significantly, with lows at least in the 40s. But the colder air may not come until Thanksgiving night or Friday.

Our confidence in such a forecast will, of course, increase in the coming days as we feast upon additional data.

Fundraiser

I want to extend a very, very warm thank you to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser so far. As always, your response has been tremendous. There’s still time to get your t-shirts, umbrellas, caps, tumblers, or to simply donate.