Eric Berger

Good morning. We have a complicated forecast for Thursday night in Houston, so that’s what most of this post focuses on.

Wednesday

It’s a mild morning across the Houston region, and we’ll see a warm and partly sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as a cold front nears. A more organized line of storms will probably form along the front itself, reaching areas such as The Woodlands and Katy between 6 and 9 pm CT, central Houston an hour or two later, and the coast by or before midnight. These storms may briefly bring strong wind gusts and the chance of some hail as they blow through. Accumulations will range from 0 to 0.5 inches for most locations, with higher amounts possible near the coast. Following the front, winds will be brisk out of the north, gusting up to about 25 mph. Temperatures will plummet.

Thursday

By Thursday morning, temperatures outside will be in the upper 30s for inland areas, and low 40s for the urban core of Houston and closer to the coast. This will be a mostly cloudy day, and with the winds it will definitely feel cold outside. Some spotty rain showers may linger during the daytime as there will be a slug of more moist air aloft. The big question is what happens on Thursday evening and the overnight hours as a disturbance approaches our region, which combined with falling temperatures and this atmospheric moisture, may produce some kind of winter precipitation.

If I can be blunt for a moment, I will say that forecasting snow, sleet, freezing rain or other winter precipitation in the Houston region is like living on a knife’s edge. Very small differences in temperature, at different levels in the atmosphere, determine whether sleet, snow, or rain falls. Because we are so close to the relatively warm Gulf of Mexico, it is difficult get a really cold atmosphere from the surface all the way to the stratosphere, which is required for snow. So our overall confidence in this forecast is low.

With that said, as temperatures fall on Thursday evening there will be a chance for light rain to transition to some kind of winter precipitation. For the Houston metro area, we probably won’t see snow, as there will be pockets of warmer air aloft that will melt any snow and re-freeze it into sleet. The good news is that any rain transitioning to sleet or ice on Thursday night should not produce significant accumulations, and at this time roads and bridges should be warm enough to mitigate against any serious effects.

The bottom line: Thursday will be cold, and there is a window during Thursday night where light precipitation could fall. This may mean we see a few ice pellets or, less likely, a few snow flurries. But for now we don’t see serious effects on Houston’s roadways by Friday morning. We will of course continue to track this closely and have a comprehensive update on Thursday morning.

Friday

In any event, temperatures will warm into the 40s on Friday, with clearing skies. Winds will start to die down as well, and this will set up ideal conditions for cold weather Friday night into Saturday morning, with a light (dry) freeze likely across much of the metro area.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks partly to mostly sunny, with temperatures in the low to mid-50s. Lows Saturday and Sunday night should drop to around 40 degrees, give or take. Some slight rain chances return on Sunday, with better ones by Monday as low pressure moves into the region. Highs may get to around 60 degrees by Tuesday before the next front arrives to keep our weather on the cooler side. Expect sunnier weather after next Tuesday, with highs perhaps in the 50s, for awhile.

Good morning. We’ve got a fairly complex forecast for the week ahead, including some reasonably cold winter weather and the potential for some light sleet, ice, or snow later this week. There’s nothing to be too concerned about, but any little bit of wintry mix is worth discussing for this southern region.

Tuesday

We have absolutely no weather concerns for today, which should yield absolutely splendid weather. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with light southerly winds. As a result, highs should climb into the low 70s, with enough dry air outside for conditions to be most pleasant. Humidity levels will creep up a bit tonight, and overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees. This very likely will be the warmest night for the rest of January in Houston, because things are about to take a turn for the colder side of things.

Wednesday

Just as Tuesday night may be the last “warm” night of this month, Wednesday could be the last warm day for January. The day will start partly sunny, and I expect highs to at least get into the mid-70s. However, clouds should start to build during the late morning or early afternoon hours, and this is when we’ll start to see a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.

As the front approaches, likely reaching our northwest areas before midnight, the central Houston area around midnight, and the coast a couple of hours later, a few stronger storms may develop. We may see some brief, small hail or possibly a tornado, but for the most part I think the region will just pick up between 0 and 0.5 inch of rain. Any severe weather that develops is likely to do so near the coast, or in the vicinity of Galveston Bay. Temperatures will drop sharply after the front’s passage.

Thursday

We’ll wake up in the 40s on Thursday morning, and due to overrunning moisture higher in the atmosphere skies will remain cloudy and cold. Brisk northerly winds, with gusts of 25 mph or higher, will make it feel quite chilly. Highs on Thursday may remain in the 40s or possibly reach 50 degrees, with the ongoing potential for light rain. The question is whether this light precipitation persists into Thursday night.

If it does, as temperatures fall to freezing for inland areas, we could see rain transition to sleet, ice, or snow. While any amount of ice is a concern, at this point we don’t see much potential for accumulations. This wintry mix is most likely to occur north of Highway 105, but if you live north of Interstate 10, or will be traveling those roadways later on Thursday night, this will be something to monitor just in case. We’ll remain on top of it for you.

Friday

Conditions improve somewhat on Friday, with lighter winds, and drier air moving in from the north to end any lingering rain. Although the sun makes an appearance during the afternoon hours, highs should again be in the 40s for most. Clearing skies will allow for an even colder night Friday, with much of the region possibly seeing a light freeze early on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks cold, but at least it should be mostly sunny. Look for highs on both days to slot in around 50 degrees or a tad warmer. Lows should be in the upper 30s for Houston, with slightly warmer conditions along the coast.

Next week

A chance of rain returns to the forecast early next week, and highs should eventually recover into the low 60s. Nights will likely remain in the 40s, however, as winter’s chill sticks around this time. Late January really is the “dead” of winter for our region, so these colder conditions are to be expected.

Good morning. I hope you enjoyed the colder weather this weekend, because after a brief warm-up through about Wednesday of this week, we’re plunging back into very cold (for Houston) conditions much of the rest of January.

Monday

After a cold start generally in the 30s, Martin Luther King Jr. Day will see a nice warm-up under sunny skies. Highs will reach the mid-60s, with very light wind northeasterly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night will drop into the mid-40s, beneath clear skies.

Tuesday

As winds turn more southerly overnight, Tuesday will see warmer conditions with highs likely topping out in the low 70s. Skies will again be sunny and although dewpoints will be rising, the air will still be comfortably dry. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be a fairly warm day, with highs likely reaching the mid- to upper 70s. Winds will start to kick up out of the south in response to an advancing front, perhaps gusting to around 20 mph. This front will push into the region later on Wednesday, likely during the evening or overnight hours, but some timing questions remain. I think most of the area will likely see some light rain with this front, with accumulations ranging from 0 to 0.5 inches for most. Showers are probably more likely closer to the coast than for inland locations.

Thursday and Friday

Unlike we often see with cold fronts, while this one will have cold, dry air at the surface, there will be a layer of more moist air aloft. Effectively, this means we’ll see an ongoing chance of precipitation and partly to mostly cloudy skies to end the work week. These will be cold days, likely with highs in the 40s, and Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the 30s, with a light freeze possible inland. The potential for light precipitation and temperatures near freezing does raise the possibly of seeing some sleet for well inland areas, or possibly even snowfall, on Thursday or Friday nights. Right now I’d rate these chances as fairly low, but certainly non-zero, especially for areas inland of Interstate 10. It’s something we’re watching, and will keep you in the loop as our confidence increases.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday is going to start out cold, likely in the upper 20s to lower 30s for inland areas, and slightly warmer closer to the coast. And the weekend will remain chilly, with highs perhaps around 50 degrees, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but we can’t entirely dismiss the possibility of some additional rain showers on Saturday and Saturday night. Highs may recover to around 60 degrees by the middle of next week, but overall conditions should remain chilly and winter-like for the foreseeable future.

Houston will experience two pleasant, mostly sunny days before a cold front barrels into the region early on Saturday. This will set the stage for a chilly and blustery weekend, with temperatures near freezing across much of the area on Sunday and Monday mornings. Beyond the cool weather, there are no concerns for the week ahead.

Thursday

Conditions today will be pleasant, with sunny skies and moderate westerly winds. Expect highs to reach about 70 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland, and a bit warmer along the coast.

Friday

Winds will shift to come from the south on Friday, perhaps gusting to around 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. This will allow for a slightly warmer day, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Skies should remain mostly to completely sunny, however. Clouds begin to build overnight, with temperatures likely holding in the mid-50s.

Saturday

The timing of this weekend’s cold front has advanced a little bit, and it now appears as though it should reach western areas during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, central Houston by around sunrise if not before, and push off the coast by 7 to 9 am. Some scattered, light showers are possible with the front near the coast, but for the most part is should be a dry passage. In the front’s wake, winds will kick up out of the north at about 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. These winds will likely peak during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures on Saturday afternoon will probably hover in the mid-50s, dropping quickly during the evening and overnight hours.

Sunday

Lows on Sunday morning will likely start out in the mid-30s. Winds should subside some overnight, but during the pre-noon hours on Sunday we should still see some gusts of about 20 mph, and this will make the morning feel very brisk indeed. If you’re participating in the Houston Marathon, please dress accordingly, as morning wind chill temperatures should be in the 20s. High temperatures on Sunday, beneath sunny skies, will likely peak in the mid-50s before another cold night with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s in Houston, with a freeze possible for outlying areas.

Next week

We’ll see a gradual warm-up through about Wednesday of next week, with highs likely reaching the low- to mid-70s before some kind of front arrives. Light rain is possible with the front, which should knock overnight lows into the 40s or possibly even 30s for the second half of next week. As ever, details are to come.