Eric Berger

Good morning. After an absolutely stunning weekend we’ll begin to see a warming trend this week. Eventually highs will settle into the mid- to upper-80s by Thursday or so, with lows in the upper 60s. Little rain, if any, is expected this week. Our next significant cold front is probably about 10 days away.

Monday

This will be the last “cold” morning for awhile, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s for far inland areas to low 60s right along the coast. The transition to warmer weather will begin as high pressure begins to move away from the area, off to our east, allowing for light southeasterly winds to return. Today is still going to be splendid, however, with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. Low temperatures tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer for most locations than Sunday night.

Tuesday

A weak low pressure system will drift into the coast from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and it’s really only worth mentioning because this will bring the region its only noticeable chance of rain during the work week. And even then, rain chances are probably only on the order of 10 or perhaps 20 percent. Mostly, this should be a mostly sunny day, with highs in the low 80s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These days should all see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s. It won’t exactly be Houston-hot, as dewpoints should be in the upper 60s rather than low- to mid-70s. But this sure will not be fall-like, either.

Saturday and Sunday

There remains a small chance that a weak front will push into Houston this weekend, but the more likely scenario is that it fails to reach our area. Highs this weekend, therefore, should remain in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly sunny skies, and slight rain chances on the order of 10 to 20 percent.

Next week

There appears to be very little in the way of a pattern change for the next 10 days, with the global models both suggesting the next front is unlikely to arrive before around October 28, ten days from now. It’s far too early to have any confidence in a forecast for Halloween.

Good morning. A strong cold front remains on track for Houston later this afternoon and evening, which will bring a few sunny days and much drier and cooler air to the region. My only real concerns right now are the potential for scattered showers this evening along with the front, and breezy conditions overnight into Saturday.

Friday

Today’s the last hot day for awhile. High temperatures away from the coast should reach about 90 degrees, and this probably will be the last time this occurs in 2021. (Emphasis on probably). Skies will be partly sunny with light westerly winds. The front itself should reach northwest Harris County late this afternoon, perhaps around 4 to 6 pm, push into central Houston shortly thereafter, and reach the coast by 8 or 9 pm tonight.

Some scattered showers will be possible inland this afternoon, and a broken line of storms may form as the front nears the coast due to the availability of more moisture in the atmosphere. In the front’s wake, winds will be gusty overnight, possibly reaching 30 mph or above. Temperatures will fall with the front and its northerly air, likely reaching the 50s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

The strongest wind gusts will begin to fall back by sunrise, but we should still see breezy conditions on Saturday with gusts of about 20 mph from the north and northwest. Skies will be sunny, with highs in the mid-70s, and overnight lows on Saturday night will likely be the coldest for the region since April, with some inland areas reaching the 40s.

Sunday

Skies should be mostly sunny on Sunday, and with light winds this day should be nearly ideal for outdoor activities. Highs will be in the mid-70s and overnight lows probably a couple of degrees warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

We’ll see a gradual warm-up next week, with highs in the 70s again on Monday and possibly Tuesday before rising into the low- to mid-80s by Wednesday and Thursday. The models are about 50-50 on whether another cold front pushes into the region next Thurday or so, but regardless our next real chance of rainfall after this evening’s frontal passage probably will not come until that time frame.

It’s been a long, long summer as always Houston. So enjoy this weekend. You’ve earned it.

Good morning. The remains of Hurricane Pamela—a system that moved into Mexico and then Texas from the Pacific Ocean—have brought moderate to heavy rainfall over central Texas. As these storms move toward us, western parts of the Houston region may see shower activity later this morning. Otherwise, we’ve got two more very warm days before a much-anticipated cold front arrives later on Friday.

Thursday

Radar this morning is lit up with showers from south central Texas through Brenham and College Station. These storms are moving slowly eastward this morning, and at the same time they’re also weakening somewhat. Based on short-term modeling, the biggest threat today for rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, or more, are areas such as Sealy and Rosenberg. Some lighter showers may progress into central Houston, but mostly the city will probably just see clouds. Rain chances should end altogether this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s today, with sticky conditions tonight in the mid-70s.

Friday

This is the day a cold front will move into Houston, but before it does we’ll see partly sunny skies and a southwesterly flow that will support very warm temperatures. Highs will likely reach the low 90s across Houston, and if I had to guess, I’d say this probably will be the last 90-degree day of 2021. The front itself should push through during the late afternoon or early evening hours, and it’s possible a broken line of storms will accompany the frontal passage. Colder and drier air moves in behind the front, with lows dropping into the upper 50s on Friday night for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend outlook remains grand, with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s and ample sunshine. Saturday night should be the coldest of the week with inland temperatures dropping to the upper 40s for some, with 50s for the rest of the area except Galveston. Sunny skies abound.

Next week

We’ll see a gradual warming trend next week, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s by Wednesday or Thursday, and overnight lows in the 60s. The next front will probably push through around Thursday, or so, and may bring some modest rain chances with it. We’ll see.

Winter Outlook

Matt and I are working on an outlook for winter conditions in our region, and plan to release it next Wednesday.

Houston’s forecast calls for three hot days before a reasonably strong cold front sweeps into the area on Friday, likely during the afternoon or early evening hours. After that we’re going to see an absolutely stellar fall weekend. We’re also tracking the possibility of heavy rainfall on Thursday due to Hurricane Pamela, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, but that threat should remain well to our west.

Wednesday

Today will be partly sunny, and hot. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and highs will likely reach the low 90s for much of the region. Rain chances are near zero. If you’re a person who likes summer in Houston, you’ll want to soak up all this day has to offer. There will be plenty of humidity as well, of course. Overnight lows will be sticky, in the upper 70s.

Thursday

Hurricane Pamela will make landfall in Mexico today and, traveling to the northeast, approach the Big Bend area early on Thursday. This will bring the potential for heavy rainfall into the state on Thursday, but we think the bulk of this activity will be in Central Texas, along the Interstate 35 corridor, where 2 to 4 inches of rain may fall. For the Houston area, I think most areas will see on the order of a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall, but we can rule out some isolated spots of heavier rainfall. This will otherwise be a mostly cloudy, humid day with highs in the upper 80s.

Friday

Are you sick and tired of summer? Well, relief is on the way. Friday should be a mostly sunny day, with highs near 90 degrees. But later on a front with a fairly striking gradient of temperatures and dewpoints will push through on Friday. Best guess for timing is that the front will reach the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor in central Houston around 4 to 6 pm, and the coast around sunset or shortly thereafter. We may see a broken line of showers with the front, but overall, rainfall accumulations do not look too impressive.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should see at times breezy conditions in the wake of the front, with northerly winds possibly gusting to about 20 mph. Winds will die down later during the afternoon. Skies will be sunny, and with the influx of cooler air high temperatures will probably max out in the mid-70s. Saturday night should be the coolest of the period, possibly dropping into the upper 40s for far inland areas, with 50s for most of the region. Sunday will again be in the superb 70s.

An onshore flow resumes by Monday or so, but highs will probably only recover to the low 80s by the mid of next week.