Eric Berger

Houston is about to move into a drier pattern for awhile. As Matt has been joking-but-not-really on Twitter, it seems like every day of this month has had a “rain o’clock” when storms moved into some portion of the area. But today is probably the last day for rain o’clock in Houston, after which the rains will end at least through the weekend, if not longer. You might say time is running out for rain o’clock.

Before that happens I want to share with you a graphic showing rainfall accumulations on Wednesday in our region.

What I want you to note is that while some significant chunks of Houston saw no rain at all, a few isolated areas saw 3+ inches (darker reds), and a larger part saw 1 to 2 inches. Also, you can see that there is no real pattern to these rains—there’s an area near Pearland, one far to the southwest of Houston, one northwest near Jersey Village, and an area in Chambers County. In hindsight, I guess you could say rains were more likely to the west of Interstate 45.

The bottom line is that rain o’clock has been good for our lawns this month, and it’s helped to keep temperatures down. But it’s been a challenge for forecasters!

Thursday

While we’re anticipating rain o’clock later today, probably between the hours of Noon and 6 pm CT, I don’t think showers will be quite as widespread as on Wednesday. Yes, these storms will be capable of producing downpours, but they should have a little more northward motion, so they won’t just sit over an area like on Tuesday. So rains are possible, certainly, but they should be more spotty and produce lower accumulations today. With partly sunny skies, we can expect high temperatures to reach the low 90s for most areas. Winds will be light, out of the south at about 5 mph.

Friday

As high pressure begins to assert itself, rain chances should drop back significantly on Friday, with perhaps 10 percent of the area seeing a brief, passing shower. Otherwise, we will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s. Winds will again be light, out of the south.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is going to be hot and sunny, with highs likely in the upper 90s for most of the region except for the immediate coast. Nighttime temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-70s for most. If you’ve forgotten what a proper summer feels like in Houston, you’re about to be reminded. Please do take care in the heat.

Next week

After another sunny day on Monday, the forecast becomes more muddled. The influence of the ridge should begin to weaken, and our overall atmosphere may moisten some. This may allow for the return of some rain chances, but right now it’s difficult to say whether that will be enough to push us back toward a wetter pattern. My bet would be on continued hot and sunny weather, but I’m not overly confident in that. Perhaps Matt will have some answers in his post tomorrow.

We are definitely beginning to transition from a wetter pattern to a drier one across our region, but before sunny skies dominate our weather we’ll see two more days with at least scattered chances of rain showers. Then, the heat really settles in this weekend, with some of our warmest weather this summer.

Also, some birds near Jersey Village were apparently having some fun this morning around sunrise, as you can see on the video below.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm this morning, with lows across much of the city barely dropping below 80 degrees. Mostly sunny skies will allow highs to rise into the low- to mid-90s this afternoon. This daytime heating combined with the sea breeze will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop from about 2 pm to 8 pm CT, with briefly heavy rains possible. About one-third of the area is likely to see rains today, with the most likely locations along and near Interstate 10, I’d guess. Winds will be very light, and showers should abate as the sun sets.

Thursday

Thursday should be a lot like Wednesday.

Friday

By Friday we should begin to fall under the influence of high pressure. While some isolated showers will still be possible, chances are probably less than 20 percent that you’ll see rain. Highs will be solidly in the mid=90s.

Saturday and Sunday

For those of you who have bemoaned the lack of hot and sunny weather in Houston this summer, you’re in luck. This weekend should bring the burn as high pressure settles over the area. We should see ample sunshine and high temperatures in the upper-90s. You’ll want to take care outside during the hottest parts of the day.

Next week

The aforementioned high pressure ridge may begin to back off a bit as we head into next week, and this would allow for highs to drop back into the mid-90s. We may also start to see the return of some slight rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday as the sea breeze jump starts a bit of activity, but for now the timing of this remains uncertain.

Most of the Houston area saw a hot and sunny weekend, with highs in the mid-90s, and only a smattering of showers. We’ll now return to a wetter pattern for most of the coming work week, with strong storms possible tonight and Tuesday, before hot and sunny weather comes back for next weekend.

Monday

Conditions for much of today will be warm and muggy, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. Scattered showers will be possible. The potential for more organized storms begins to increase later this afternoon as a weak front approaches our region from the north, and an associated line of showers and thunderstorms moves into Houston.

Some of these storms could be strong, producing heavy rainfall and damaging winds, especially north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, the line of storms is likely to reach a line from Sealy to Conroe at around 6 to 8 pm CT, push into Houston along Interstate 10 between 7 and 9 pm, and possibly weaken as they near the coast after 9 pm CT. Generally, we should see accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with higher localized amounts.

Tuesday

As the frontal boundary stalls out over the Houston region, we could see the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms early on Tuesday morning, either just before or around sunrise. This may make for a mess during Tuesday morning’s commute, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10.

After this second burst of rainfall, it is possible shower activity could wane some during the later morning and afternoon hours. However, I expect skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday

The overall pattern will remain favorable for rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, with fairly moist air and an atmosphere that promotes rising air. While I don’t think either of these two days will see the kinds of organized storms expected on Monday, you nonetheless probably have about a 50 percent chance of showers or a thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Friday

Some scattered rains will be again possible on Friday, but by this point we should begin transitioning to a hotter and drier pattern, as high pressure begins to build over the area. Look for highs in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Toward the end of July we expect to see high pressure assert itself, and for Houston that means hot, sunny, and humid weather. For now, therefore, we expect hot and mostly sunny conditions this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid-90s—and perhaps a touch warmer than that for inland areas. Most likely this hotter and drier pattern will persist into next week. If you’ve missed classic summertime weather in Houston, you’re in luck.

Apologies for the late post this morning, but both Matt and I are balancing work, travel, and family schedules for the next few days so posts may be a bit off schedule through next Wednesday. Fortunately, the weather does not look too crazy as we continue with this wetter-and-cooler-than-normal pattern for July.

Friday

If you’ve appreciated Houston’s weather over the last several days you’re in luck, as Friday is likely to see similar conditions. The combination of daytime heating and the sea breeze should again spark the development of showers and thunderstorms later this morning, and these will be capable of producing briefly heavy rains and strong wind gusts. Perhaps 50 to 60 percent of the Houston region will see rain today to go along with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances will slacken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Saturday

I’m cautiously optimistic about the forecast for the weekend. It looks like atmospheric moisture levels will fall back a little, and this should help to limit both the coverage of showers on Saturday and their intensity. I’d say you probably have about a one-in-three chance of seeing at least some light showers on Saturday, and with partly sunny skies highs will likely get into the low 90s.

Sunday

Sunday should bring more of the same weather, with highs not over-bearing for mid-July and a decent chance of a passing shower. At this time we don’t see much evidence for organized, significant rainfall this weekend. Winds will be light all weekend, out of the east or southeast. Humidity will, of course, be sky high.

Next week

Monday will likely see persistence weather, meaning more scattered rain chances before the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable for rainfall later next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly wet, and at this point I’d say much of the area could pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain during the middle of next week. But that’s just a guess at this point.

By Thursday it really does look like high pressure will start to build over the area, and we could begin an extended period of hotter days in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some of you will welcome that, and others will dread it. As for Space City Weather’s opinion, I have to say, we’re just here for the fall cold fronts.

Have a great weekend, everyone.