Eric Berger

Good morning. The main news remains the potential for very cold weather in Houston during the coming seven to 10 days. While we still have questions about the details it is now time to begin considering preparations.

Also, it’s worth noting that very cold weather in February is far from unprecedented. Back in 1899, the city of Houston recorded consecutive days with low temperatures of 6 degrees on February 12 and 13. That means only six degrees of separation from a low of zero degrees.

Tuesday

As expected, moderate to dense fog has developed across the region this morning, with muggy conditions in the 60s. This fog may not dissipate until 9am or so for some areas. A front will sag into Houston today, and stall around 30 to 50 miles from the coast. Effectively, this means if if you live inland of Interstate 69, highs today may generally be in the 50s, but if you live south and closer to the coast, highs will be in the low 70s. Some scattered showers will be possible area-wide today. Overnight lows will be similarly dependent upon the extent of the front.

Wednesday

Conditions should be similar on Wednesday, with the front stalled out across Houston. Depending on where it’s hung up, you may see highs in 50s with drier air, versus highs in the 60s with more humidity.  Rain chances will be a bit higher, with perhaps a 40 percent chance of light to moderate showers.

Thursday

One more day of divided temperatures, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather further inland. Rain chances will be that much higher as a stronger, Arctic front approaches, and pushes into Houston later on Thursday. Most areas should see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall through Friday morning.

Friday

We’ll see a much colder day on Friday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s and partly sunny skies. Lows Friday night will drop to around 40 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air looks set to move into the coastal region on Saturday, and this is what will likely set the stage for much colder weather early next week. Highs on Saturday may remain in the 40s, with lows dropping into the 30s for Houston, and 20s for inland areas well inland on Saturday night. Sunday may struggle to get out of the 30s, with lows Sunday night again likely below freezing for much of the metro area. Happy Valentine’s Day—this will not be the best of years for planning some sort of outdoor surprise!

Early next week

Quite frankly, we’re still struggling with how cold conditions will get during the Sunday through Tuesday period of next week as the models are really all over the place. Some ensemble members of the GFS suggest temperatures could reach their nadir on Tuesday morning, in the teens even in the city of Houston. This probably is too cold, but a widespread and potentially hard freeze does seem likely. It is time now to consider preparations for plants and pets, and if temperatures drop below about 25 degrees, external pipes. Please note the details of this medium-range forecast remain uncertain, and therefore will change. And when it comes to low temperatures like these, small changes matter.

After Sunday’s brilliant weather our conditions this week will turn a little bit more cloudy, and increasingly warmer until a strong cold front Thursday ushers winter back into the region. We’re still anticipating much colder weather for next weekend, although how cold—and how much of the region sees a freeze—is yet to be determined. We’ll discuss below.

Monday

With winds shifting from the east to come from the southeast this morning, today will see increasing cloud cover across Houston. High temperatures will likely reach about 70 degrees. With the southerly flow, temperatures on Monday night likely will not drop below 60 degrees in the city of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Tuesday

With the warmer overnight air, we may see at least some patchy fog develop on Tuesday morning. Skies should again be partly to mostly cloudy, but even so high temperatures will likely get into the mid-70s. It will be another warm nighttime for February, with lows in the low 60s. Some very slight showers are possible, although unlikely.

Wednesday and Thursday

The middle of the week will see continued warm weather, with clouds. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, we should start to see scattered, light showers on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain chances increase Thursday as a cold front approaches and passes through the area—although whether this happens around noon on Thursday or during the evening hours, it’s difficult to say. Most areas should see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with this front, which the region could use.

Friday

The end of the work week should see much colder weather, with highs likely in the 40s to 50s, lots clouds, and colder norther winds. Lows Friday night will likely drop into the 30s, likely. Brrrr.

Saturday and Sunday

The biggest question for our forthcoming weekend concerns Arctic air that will be diving into the central United States. Specifically, how much of this colder air reaches all the way down to the Texas coast, and how much is shunted off to the east? Some models, like the GFS, show bonkers cold temperatures as low as the teens. That’s highly unlikely. However, by Sunday morning I do think it’s reasonably to expect lows to reach the neighborhood of 25 to 35 degrees for much of the area, except for the immediate coast. Some additional precipitation is possible over the weekend and into early next week, and we’ll have to monitor its potential to come as snow, ice, sleet, or something in between. So, stay tuned.

It’s a rather warm morning across the region for early February, with lows in the 60s. We’re on the way toward a very warm afternoon, with highs near 80 degrees. But as we’ve been talking about, do not take this as a sign that winter is over. We’re still anticipating a pretty robust cooldown next week that could very well bring a freeze to parts of the Houston area, if not all of it.

Thursday

A warm, southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to 80 degrees this afternoon. Areas that see a bit of sunshine will probably reach 80, and chances of this are highest just west of Houston. This flirtation with spring will will end this evening, as a front reaches areas northwest of Houston around sunset, drops into the city of Houston between 8 and 10pm, and reaches the coast around midnight. A very light band of rain may accompany the front.

Friday

Lows on Friday will drop down to around 50 degrees, in the wake of the front. Winds will be out of the north, and even with partially clearing skies, highs may only rise to around 60 degrees for most. Lows will probably drop into the upper 40s overnight, as winds shift to come from the east.

Saturday

Thanks to this warmer onshore flow, highs on Saturday will probably climb to around 70 degrees with partly sunny skies. However, by the afternoon, a second front should arrive and this will again cool Houston down to around 50 degrees overnight.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks splendid, with highs near 70 degrees, lots of sunshine and dry air. Seriously, do something outside.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday both look reasonably warm, with highs in the upper 60s or lows 70s and a mixture of sunshine and clouds.

The pattern changes on Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front, which should bring several days of significantly colder air into the region. With mostly cloudy skies for a few days, the second half may see highs in the 50s (or even 40s?) and lows in the 30s (or maybe even 20s?). This raises the possibility of wintry precipitation by next weekend, or so. I think there’s a solid 20 percent chance or snow, but given the delicacy of such a forecast—which is to say a lot of ingredients must line up just right for snow to fall along the upper Texas coast—we’re still a long way from being able to forecast what will happen with confidence. So, stay tuned!

We now interrupt our previously scheduled winter to bring you a brief taste of spring for the next couple of days. But fret not, we expect moderately cooler weather to return this weekend, and possibly a full-on Arctic blast later next week. At this point we’re not even ruling out snow—although the chances of seeing this in Houston remain about 20 percent for now.

Wednesday

Conditions are starting out chilly enough this morning, with much of the area dropping into the upper 40s. However with light winds out of the east, and shifting to the southeast later this morning, Houston will warm up to around 70 degrees this afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Lows tonight will only drop to around 60 degrees in the city city, beneath mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

Houston will really warm up on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly flow bringing warm air across the region. Highs should generally reach the upper 70s to about 80 degrees in some locations (the record high temperature at both Bush and Hobby airports is 81 degrees). Temperatures will depend, somewhat, on the extent of sunshine that breaks through the afternoon clouds. We’re now more confident in the timing of the region’s next front, which should reach northwest areas around sunset on Thursday, push into central Houston between 8 and 10 pm, and reach the coast roughly around midnight. Rain chances are slight, and any rain that falls should be brief and light. Lows Thursday night should drop to around 50 degrees.

Friday

Expect a breezy start to Friday in the wake of the front, with highs climbing into the low 60s or so under partly sunny skies. Lows Friday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, but remain in the 50s closer to the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The cold front will be short-lived, as it moves back onshore on Saturday. This should make for a bit warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, to go along with partly sunny skies. Another front drops into the region Saturday night, and this should ensure sunny skies on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the mid-60s. Lows should drop in the upper 40s by Sunday night.

Next week

We expect Monday and Tuesday to be pleasant days, with highs in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees or so. By later Tuesday or Wednesday, however, we see a front bringing significantly colder air into the region. While it’s still too early to say much about the details, this front will bring a decent chance of a freeze to the region by the second half of next week. We also can’t rule out some wintry precipitation, but again it’s just too far away to have much confidence right now.