Eric Berger

In the wake of an at-times stormy Sunday, and a gusty Sunday night following the passage of a cold front, Houston will experience a winter-like week with days mostly in the 50s and cold nights. Some areas will likely even see a freeze on Wednesday night. Also, we’re now only 11 days away from Christmas Day, so we can also take our first real look at the holiday forecast.

Monday

Some blustery winds remain this morning, but they should generally subside as high pressure moves off to the east. High temperatures today will depend upon the extent to which clouds break down this afternoon. Some areas may reach the low 50s but other parts of the metro area will remain in the 40s. Winds shift to come from the east later today, and nighttime temperatures should drop to around 40 in Houston—cooler inland, and warmer along the coast.

Tuesday

We’ll see more clouds on Tuesday as yet another cold front crosses the area. There will be limited moisture for the front to work with, but it may generate some light showers across the area—I would not expect more than one or two-tenths of an inch of rainfall. Any lingering showers should end by or before sunset on Tuesday, with another chilly night dropping down to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

The middle of the week will be cool and sunny in the wake of the front. We can expect highs in the 50s to go along with moderate north or northwest winds. Wednesday night will be the coldest of the week, most likely, with a light freeze possible for outlying areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Heading into the weekend we should see some clouds mixing into the sky, as temperatures warm a little bit—perhaps into the low 60s? We may see some showers on Friday or Saturday ahead of the region’s next front. At this point they neither look all that strong or severe, but out confidence in this is far from absolute. The next front then pushes through either on Saturday or Saturday night, which likely would yield a cool and clear day on Sunday.

Christmas week

It’s hard to believe, but December 25th falls on the Friday of next week. So what kind of weather can we anticipate for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day? The models generally agree that next week will probably be at least a little warmer than this week with its highs in the 50s. The long range models suggest another fairly strong front will push through during the Christmas Eve time frame, just in time for the holiday. I would at this point label this as a strong “maybe,” and if the front does arrive it would make for a fairly cold Christmas. I’d even go so far as to say there’s maybe a 5 percent—that’s a 1-in-20 chance, friends—of some kind of wintry precipitation around that timeframe. But most likely it will just be rain of some sort, with the time and amount to be determined.

Good morning. As we get closer to the weekend our forecast is coming into slightly better focus, but we still have some questions about the timing and intensity of some storms that may roll through on Friday, and potentially again on Sunday. Let’s jump in.

Thursday

The big change for today will be winds, which will become more pronounced from the south during the daytime. Even though moisture levels will increase some, I still think our skies will remain mostly sunny. This will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. Southerly winds will continue overnight, pumping more moisture into the area. Lows likely will not fall below 60 for most of the area.

Friday

An upper-level system will approach Houston on Friday, and combine with this moisture to produce widespread showers and perhaps a few severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will come from strong wind gusts. I think the afternoon hours will be the most likely period for rainfall, and expect most of the region to see 0.25 to 0.75 inches through Friday evening. Rains should end by Friday night as a cool front nears the area.

Saturday

This front should reach Houston during the morning hours, and move off the coast by or before noon. At this point it looks like Saturday will turn out to be a rather nice day, with highs perhaps reaching near 70 degrees, and plenty of sunshine during the afternoon to go along with light northerly winds. Lows Saturday night will likely drop to around 50 degrees in the city.

Sunday

Another upper level feature will approach Houston on Sunday, and this could drive another round of rain chances during the daytime. The global models are not in great agreement on rain totals with this second system, but for now I’d expect less rain than the region will see on Friday. Matt will have to get the scoop for you in tomorrow’s post. Highs Sunday will likely get into the 60s, with partly sunny skies. A stronger push of cold, dry air arrives later Sunday, or Sunday night, setting the stage for cooler conditions.

Next week

I expect the cooler and drier weather—highs in the 50s and 60s, lows perhaps around 40 degrees—to hang around for much of next week, with a warming trend only kicking in perhaps by next Thursday or Friday. Winter is coming (back)!

Good morning. Houston will continue to see a slow warming trend heading into the weekend before the arrival of two cold fronts nudge the region back into winter-like weather. Unfortunately, we’ll likely see some decent rain chances over the weekend until the second front pushes completely through.

Wednesday

Lows are starting out in the low- to mid-40s today, and we’ll warm into the mid- to upper-70s under sunny skies. Our nearly calm winds will shift to come from the south later today or tonight, and that will mark the beginning of an onshore flow. Low temperatures tonight will be around 50 degrees in the city itself, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer near the coast.

Thursday

Skies should again be mostly sunny, and temperatures should again climb into the upper 70s. However, with continuing light, southerly winds we’ll start to see humidity levels creep up, and Thursday night’s temperatures should only drop into the low 60s for most.

Friday and Saturday

The pattern becomes more complex by the end of the work week, as an upper-level low pressure system approaches Houston from the west. By Friday, our atmospheric moisture levels will have increased to moderate levels, and this combined with rising air should lead to widespread rain showers later in the day. I expect these rains to be light to moderate, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inches for most people. Highs on Friday should reach the mid-70s.

At some point on Saturday, likely during the morning hours, a cold front should push into Houston, likely pushing off the coast around noon. Skies may clear a little bit on Saturday afternoon and evening in the wake of the front.

Sunday

Lows on Saturday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in the city, but then we should see a second frontal passage on Sunday that will bring still colder and much drier air to the region. It’s looking like this second front may produce some additional showers on Sunday, and then dry out quickly as blustery, northerly winds kick into gear. Lows by Sunday night or Monday morning could drop into the upper 30s for areas away from the coast.

Next week

I think the general pattern next week will be one of warming after Sunday’s front, but I don’t have much confidence in the details. I know a lot of you have asked and wondered about Christmas Day weather, but right now it’s just too early to say anything meaningful. We’ll put out a preliminary forecast next Monday.

Good morning! I want to thank the teachers at Seabrook Intermediate, and the science program led by Rebecca Rolater, for letting me judge their annual science fair on Monday. It’s been an incredibly difficult year for teachers, so it’s great to see them persevere through the pandemic, and always uplifting to see the creative ideas kids have for projects. It gives one hope for the future. Now, on to the weather…

Tuesday

Temperatures have generally dropped into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of Houston this morning, and we’ll continue to see pleasant, sunny weather for a few more days as high pressure dominates. Expect high temperatures today to reach around 70 degrees, with light westerly winds. Temperatures Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer for your location than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more sunshine, and a modest warming trend, as we get deeper in the week, and our weather will begin to change further by early Thursday, as the onshore flow returns. This will begin to bump up our humidity levels. Otherwise, expect highs in the mid-70s both days, with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be about 50 degrees, and jump up to 60 by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’re still not all that confident about our forecast for this weekend. We can say that Friday should be mostly cloudy, with highs in the 70s, and some decent rain chances during the daytime and overnight hours—much of the area could see 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain. However, we’re still not certain of what happens after that.

It’s possible that a front will barrel all the way into Houston, and off the coast, drying the region out by Saturday morning. Or the front could get hung up northwest of, or on top of Houston. This would lead to continuing moderate rain chances and warmer conditions on Saturday for much of the region. This front, or a secondary push of drier air, will eventually make it through and off the coast, so we expect a cooler and sunny day for Sunday, with highs perhaps struggling to reach 60 degrees.

Next week

There is a fair amount of discrepancy in the models about how cold things will get early next week in the wake of the front. For now, I think lows in the city itself will probably get down to around 40 degrees by Monday morning or so. Another front may push through on Tuesday night, to keep the region on the cooler side for a few more days.