Eric Berger

The watchword for Houston’s weather in the coming days is uncertainty—with the main questions concerning whether it will rain locally over the next few days, and whether a front will push through Houston on Wednesday or so of next week.

Thursday

It’s going to be another very warm day along the coast, with highs in the 90s and heat indices pushing into the low 100s. High temperatures elsewhere will likely get into the mid-90s, tempered somewhat by more clouds in the sky. Forecast models are pretty inconsistent, but given the available moisture in the atmosphere I’d guess about one-third of the area sees some form of light to moderate precipitation later today. This should help moderate temperatures slightly.

Friday and Saturday

By Friday, a nearby upper-level system in conjunction with a weaker capping inversion should increase coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms to 40 or 50 percent. These will most likely occur later during the afternoon hours, with the peak of daytime heating. I still think skies will be at least partly sunny, and we can probably expect highs to get into the mid-90s. Overnight lows will remain sticky and warm, in the upper 70s except immediately along the coast.

Sunday and Labor Day

The second half of Labor Day weekend will likely see more sunshine as high pressure amplifies a bit. Expect a pair of warm, summer days with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid- or upper-90s. We’re not going to rule out some scattered showers along the sea breeze, however.

Will the front make it?

Oh, my friends. I would love nothing more than to tell you that fall’s first cold front will definitely come barreling into Houston six days from now. But the fact of the matter is that this possibility hinges the strength of a ridge of high pressure near Canada and Alaska early next week, and the extent to which a trough of cooler air can penetrate into the central United States. Right now the models are parsing a pretty fine line on whether that happens or not to allow cooler air to make its way all the way down to us—so we’re sticking to our 50-50 prediction of whether a front makes it.

Good morning. The main story of our weather continues to be heat—Houston’s high temperatures for most of the last week have reached 99 degrees or above—but after today our hottest weather and extreme heat indices should be in the rear view mirror. We expect to see a few more clouds today, and then better rain chances starting tomorrow should help to temper our peak daytime heating just a bit.

Wednesday

A large complex of storms that has produced several inches of rainfall over North Texas should continue to sag southward this morning. But most likely these storms will stall out to the northwest of our area—the rains will probably reach a line from Sealy to Conroe before dying out. Areas northwest and along this line may see some additional on and off rainfall through this evening. Otherwise it should be a partly to mostly sunny day for most of the metro area, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Winds will again blow from the south, gusting perhaps to 20 mph due to a tight pressure gradient.

Thursday

As more moisture moves into the atmosphere we’re likely to see more clouds on Thursday, and this should help to moderate temperatures slightly. At least some scattered showers will be possible as highs get into the low- to mid-90s. Nighttime lows will remain sticky, in the upper 70s.

Friday

A bit more of a disturbed atmosphere on Friday, in conjunction with ample moisture in the atmosphere, should lead to more widespread showers on Friday. Accumulations will likely vary widely across the region. Highs will depend upon the extent of rainfall at your location.

Saturday, Sunday, and Labor Day

The weekend weather looks fairly standard for this time of year, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s most likely. We’ll have some decent rain chances—perhaps 30 percent?–each day along the sea breeze.

Next week

We’re still watching the potential for a fairly robust cool front to arrive in Houston later on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. If it makes it, this front will provide a nice shot of drier and cooler air, but it remains too close to call or guarantee a week out.

Laura wrap-up

As some of you may know, for my day job I write for a publication called Ars Technica. On Tuesday, we published a feature on Hurricane Laura, and the very close call on whether the region enacted a more widespread evacuation. And it was very close.

Well, we made it. August has ended. You may recall at the outset of this month I wrote that August was a month to survive in Houston: “If you’re in Houston in August and the high temperature is not in the upper 90s or higher, the streets aren’t flooding, and you’re not concerned about an impending hurricane—it’s a win.” Alas we didn’t do much winning in August. The daily high temperature was 98 degrees or higher on 15 days last month, and we spent about 10 days worrying about an impending hurricane. So August was August, and now, at least, it’s over.

Tuesday

September won’t bring immediate change to Houston in terms of temperatures, but we do still expect a pattern shift in about nine or 10 days time. Alas, Houston will remain under a heat advisory on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper-90s across much of the region and sultry humidity pushing the heat index to 110 degrees or higher for much of the region. Skies will be mostly sunny. Let’s be honest, this is pretty oppressive weather—the only very slight relief will come from a southerly breeze, which may at times gust above 20 mph. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday and Thursday

For now we’ll go with continued hot and mostly sunny weather for these days, and additional heat advisories will probably be warranted for the Houston metro area. The one wrinkle is that an upper-level low pressure system and a cold front over North Texas may help spur a few showers in Houston, but for now I think we’ll remain dry. The best bet is on continued heat and sunshine. We do have some concerns for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and this system, as it could bring 6 inches of rain or more through Thursday, which may lead to some localized flooding in central and northern Texas between now and Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend remains a bit uncertain as some tropical moisture may move in from the Gulf of Mexico. This may elevate rain chances to on the order of about 30 percent each day, but for the most part I expect Houston to remain hot, in the mid-90s, and partly to mostly sunny. We’ll try to pin this forecast down in the next day or so.

Next week

We’re still looking at the possibility of a pretty decent cold front by Wednesday or so of next week. We are making no promises—early season fronts often fail to materialize—but this feature remains fairly consistent within the models. If it happens, we can probably expect a nice shot of rainfall, before drier and cooler air moves in. Should the front happen, it probably would bring a couple of days of highs in the 80s, with lows in the 60s. So, fingers crossed, Houston. All of them.

Lost amid the concern about Hurricane Laura over the last week is that summer pretty much has chugged along and late August in Houston is doing late August things. Saturday’s high temperature reached 101 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and the dew points of around 80 degrees on some recent mornings have just been gross. The question in everyone’s mind, therefore, is when will it end? The flippant answer for long-time Houston residents is November. But the real answer is that, just maybe, we’re about 10 days away from the region’s first real cool front.

As we’ll discuss in the post below, our weather for the next week remains hot. But about 10 days from now there are hints in the global models of a decently strong cold front arriving in the Houston area. There are a couple of reasons for skepticism: We get a lot of “mirage” fronts popping up in the models at this time of year that falsely advertise the arrival of cool fronts, and this one would be about two weeks earlier than normal for Houston. On the other hand, this front has been fairly consistent in the model forecasts. At this point, therefore, I would say there is about a 50 percent chance of a nice front pushing into Houston about 10 days from now. That is not a guarantee.

Monday

Welcome to a new week, with plenty of more heat. Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Some moisture has surged into the region, and this probably will be enough to generate some short-lived showers and thunderstorms for about 30 percent of the area. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to about 20 mph. Unless showers cool you off this afternoon, expect high temperatures to get into the mid- to upper-90s. Overnight temperatures will remain very sticky.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

For now we don’t anticipate a whole lot of variance across these three days with partly to mostly sunny skies and daily highs in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out some showers on the northwest or northern periphery of the Houston metro area, but for the most part we’re going to see no rain. Nights will be sticky and warm.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

By this weekend some clouds enter the forecast and a front over north Texas may help to generate some showers over Houston. But for now the weekend forecast remains fairly uncertain—except for the fact that we can probably count on plenty of heat.

Tropics

I wrote a quick post about the tropics on Sunday, and our general thinking remains the same. While there are lots of areas of interest across the Atlantic Basin today, we still don’t see too much to be concerned about when it comes to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics post on Tuesday.