Eric Berger

As recently as Friday, many parts of the Houston area saw temperatures reach 80 degrees. But a potent front that blew in early on Sunday—a few gusts near 40 mph were recorded later in the day—will bring our region its coldest weather of the season. A light freeze is likely tonight for all but the urban core of Houston and coastal areas.

Also, today is the final day of our 2020 fundraiser—you can buy merchandise or simply donate funds. The response this year has been just wonderful. In addition to raising plenty of money to keep Space City Weather humming and improve our offerings, we’re going to be donating more than $5,000 to the SBP charity that helps people rebuild after hurricanes.

Monday

Winds are continuing to blow from the northwest this morning, and may gust up to about 20 mph throughout the day as cold, dry air continues to move into the region. Skies will be mostly sunny, but highs will only briefly rise above 50 degrees for most areas. As winds die down tonight, the region will see its coldest night since February. Much of the area, excepting coastal counties, will see a light freeze early on Tuesday morning, and a freeze warning is in effect for much of the region.

Tuesday

After a cool start, Tuesday will warm into the 60s. We’ll start out with sunny skies, but as winds shift to come from the south, we’ll see increasing cloud cover during the late morning or afternoon hours. Lows Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s for most of Houston.

Wednesday

Conditions will be mostly cloudy on Wednesday as the next front approaches our region. Although the timing of this system is still not locked in—it probably will move through Houston some time during the middle of the day—it does seem likely to bring another shot of rainfall as it passes. Most of the area will see, roughly, on the order of 1 inch of rain. Precipitation chances will probably end Wednesday evening, or so. This will be another reasonably strong front, but it likely will not drive the region’s temperatures below freezing in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Houston will enjoy a pair of sunny, winter-like days, with highs in the 50s and lows likely in the 30s for inland areas, and 40s along the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperatures will begin to rebound by the weekend, but at this point our best guess is that highs will be around 60 degrees both days, with lows around 40 degrees. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny—so for now we expect a rather nice winter-like weekend!

Tropics

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today, and it has been a record one, with 30 total storms, including 13 hurricanes. (It’s always possible that we may see one more stray storm in December). Houston was directly affected by Tropical Storm Beta in September, but also experienced indirect effects from hurricanes Laura and Delta. Matt and I will have more to say about this season of seasons in the next week or so.

Good morning, and Happy Thanksgiving! While this has been a very difficult year I nonetheless have a lot to be thankful for—my family, a great partner on this website in Matt, and an even greater community to write for. Please know that the thing Matt and I value the most is your trust, and we will never stop trying to earn it.

Thanksgiving Day

Temperatures have generally fallen into the 50s this morning for the region, except for coastal communities. You may see some sunshine this morning, but clouds will quickly fill in as winds shift from the northeast to east—say goodbye, because we’re not going to see the Sun again until Sunday. Showers will develop this morning, but remain primarily offshore. However we can’t rule out at least some light precipitation along, and southeast of Interstate 69 during the daytime today. High temperatures will warm into the mid-70s for most areas.

Friday and Saturday

More organized storms should begin to develop by Friday morning, and then we should see our best chances for heavy rainfall from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. We’re continuing to lean toward the region seeing a “good soaking” rather than “serious flooding.” The forecast models continue to suggest most of the area will see 2 to 5 inches of rain over the two-day period, which is more than manageable considering the dry state of our soils. However, we may see some more localized areas of heavy rainfall, and if rain rates pulse up to 1.5 to 2 inches per hour we will see some street flooding. We think these heaviest rains will probably come right along the coast.

Beyond the potential for heavy rainfall, there may be some small hail, although chances for this or any other type of severe weather remain quite low. Bottom line: If you’re going to be out and about from Friday afternoon through Saturday night, check the radar before you go. Things will probably be fine, but it does not hurt to check.

Sunday and next week

It still looks like a strong front will push into Houston early on Sunday, reaching the city before sunrise, and likely pushing off the coast around sunrise. Skies should clear quickly after the front’s passage, and Sunday will be a blustery day in the wake of the front, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Next Monday night looks quite cold, with inland areas possibly seeing a light freeze. If you live in, say, The Woodlands, you may want to monitor the forecast to see if precautions are needed to protect tender plants.

Matt will have your forecast on Friday morning. If warranted by heavier than expected rainfall, we’ll update the site this weekend.

Good morning. There’s a lot going on with Houston’s forecast over the next week—a veritable feast, one might say—from mild weather on Thanksgiving, to the potential for heavy rain this weekend, to much colder conditions next week. So let’s jump right in!

Wednesday

It’s quite muggy across Houston this morning, but a reasonably strong front is pushing toward the metro area and should move off the coast by around noon. Winds will shift to come from the north behind the front, and this will bring drier air and clearing skies this afternoon. Look for highs to fall somewhere in the mid-70s, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 40s for inland areas to around 60 degrees along the coast.

Thanksgiving Day

Winds will veer to come from the east by Thursday morning, and so while I think we’ll see sunny skies during the morning, clouds will build in the afternoon. Highs likely will reach the mid- to upper-70s for most areas. A few light showers will be possible during the late afternoon or evening, but the better rain chances should wait until after midnight. Low temperatures Thursday night will struggle to fall below 70 degrees.

Friday through Saturday night

The combination of ample moisture at the surface, and a favorable upper atmosphere will generate widespread rain showers on Friday, Saturday, and perhaps early Sunday morning. I suspect these will produce periods of on-and-off showers, with some intermittently heavy rainfall. Models are now a little more bullish on rainfall totals, so the expectation is for generally 2 to 5 inches of rain across the area, with some locally higher totals. Given the state of our dry soils, this should not lead to more than street flooding, but as ever we’ll be watching. Frankly, this is much-needed rain so we’re not going to complain too much. Highs on Friday and Saturday will likely reach about 70 degrees.

Sunday

A strong front should push into Houston on Saturday night—precise timing still to be determined—and this influx of much drier air will bring any lingering storms to an end on Sunday morning. Sunday will be a blowy day, with temperatures likely peaking at around 60 degrees and 20 mph winds with stronger gusts making it feel cooler. Lows Sunday night should drop into the 40s for all but the immediate coast.

Next week

It looks like Monday night will be the coldest of next week, with low temperatures likely dropping into the 30s in parts of Houston—areas north and northwest of Houston, such as Conroe and Brenham, may see a freeze but it’s too early to make that call. As our air will be very dry, I think we can safely rule out any kind of wintry precipitation. Highs will likely remain in the 60s for much of the week, with medium-range models suggesting the cooler weather will stick around for awhile.

We’ll be back on Thanksgiving morning with a brief post to update rainfall expectations for the weekend. Also, we’re entering the final days of our annual fundraiser—your support so far has been amazing.

Houston’s weather has been rather boring for rather a long time now, but that may be about to change. While we still have considerable doubt about the details, it seems likely that after Thanksgiving Day rain chances are going to really shoot up on Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front that will usher in much cooler and drier weather for next week.

Tuesday

Lows have generally dropped into the low 60s this morning, but winds are beginning to shift from east to the southeast, and this will usher in much warmer and more humid air. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph this afternoon from the south. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies today, we should see highs reach about 80 degrees in most locations. With the additional moisture in the atmosphere, there will be about a 20 percent chance of light showers. This will continue tonight, when we should not expect much of a cooldown. Some areas near and south of Interstate 10 will not drop below 70 degrees.

Wednesday

Change will come in the form of a modest cool front on Wednesday—it should arrive in much of Houston during the mid-morning hours and reach the coast by noon or a little bit after. This front will end our rain chances, for now, and bring drier air and clearing skies. Expect highs in the upper 70s on Wednesday, with a pleasant night as temperatures drop into the 50s for most locations but the coast.

Thanksgiving

Turkey Day will start out clear and fairly crisp, but by late morning morning winds should begin to veer back onshore again. As a result, skies will likely be clear in the morning, with building clouds during the afternoon. Highs will reach into the upper 70s to 80 degrees for most, making for a warm Thanksgiving. It looks as though rain chances will hold off until the overnight hours, but after midnight all bets are off.

Friday and Saturday

We have two primary questions heading into the weekend—the timing of a strong cold front, and the amount of rain that will fall before it exits the area. The combination of high levels of Gulf moisture and favorable conditions in the atmosphere will produce healthy rain chances on Friday and Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies. For the most part, these rains should be fairly steady, and not overly intense—i.e. not 1.5 inches per hour or greater that can generate flooding. Still, we expect accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through this weekend, with greater totals possible north and east of Houston.

The rains will come to an end after the front passes. I think this could happen any time between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. The net effect is that at some point on Sunday we should see clearing skies and much drier air.

Next week

This weekend’s front, and likely a reinforcing one, should keep our weather on the colder side next week. Beginning Monday, we should see highs in the 50s and 60s, with lows in the 30s (at inland locations, on some nights) and 40s. I don’t think the metro Houston area will see a freeze during the first week of December, but I would not entirely rule it out. Winter, my friends, is at hand!

Fundraiser

Please note there is less than a week left in our annual fundraiser for the site.