Eric Berger

Houston experiencing its coldest morning for awhile today

Good morning. Today is an important day for our republic, the one day a year when two halves come together to create something great. This tradition dates to the 1700s, and people often take time off from work to partake in this custom, walking up to a counter and making their choice around lunchtime. I am speaking, of course, of National Sandwich Day. Also, please do make sure you go vote in our election today, as the weather will provide no excuses.

Election Day

Temperatures this morning in Houston, in the low 40s for inland areas and upper 40s in the city, will probably be the region’s coolest for the next week. We’ll warm up fairly quickly, however, and the weather today will be, in a word, perfect. Highs will reach into the mid-70s, under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the east. Overnight lows on Tuesday night should be a few degrees warmer.

Tuesday morning lows are quite cool across the region. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be pleasant days, under the influence of a light east and southeasterly flow. In general, we expect mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 70s to 80, and lows of around 60 in Houston—cooler inland, and warmer along the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend a more pronounced southerly flow will raise humidity levels. Ultimately, high temperatures should hang around 80 degrees, but both Saturday and Sunday nights should be warmer, probably in the mid- or upper-60s.

Next week

This warming trend should continue until around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, when some sort of front will trundle into the area. I still don’t have confidence in its timing or strength, but there is some hope it will bring us our first real chance of rainfall in quite some time.

A very powerful Hurricane Eta nears landfall on Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

Tropics

If you have not been paying attention to Hurricane Eta, it absolutely exploded in terms of intensity on Monday, and it will come ashore into Nicaragua today with Category-4 or -5 intensity winds. In addition, the storm will deliver devastating flooding in Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm is eerily similar in intensity to Hurricane Mitch, in 1998, which caused more than 11,000 fatalities.

By this weekend, after wreaking carnage in Central America, Eta should reemerge into the northwest Caribbean Sea, after which time it may threaten Cuba, Florida, or possibly the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It’s just too early to say much more.

Houston will enjoy a week of splendid fall weather

Good morning. October has come and gone. The first ten days of the month were near normal, in terms of weather, followed by a middle period that was very warm. Many sites recorded record highs in the low 90s. But the last week of the month was much cooler, generally with days in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

All in all, then, the Houston area ended with near normal temperatures. Here’s a map showing departure from normal temperatures for the month along with the rest of the country.

Temperature anomaly for October, 2020. (Weathermodels.com)

Monday

A cool front pushed into Houston on Sunday, and this has made for a cool night, with lows generally dropping into the 40s except for parts of the city, and near the coast. As a result, the region will enjoy splendid fall weather today, with highs in the low 70s beneath sunny skies. Expect another clear and cool night, with temperatures perhaps dropping a degree or two cooler than Sunday night.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

We’ll see a slight warmup this week as winds shift to come from the east, and eventually the southeast. Still, we expect three mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s for most. Nights will warm some, from the 50s on Tuesday night to around 60 by Thursday. This is really fall as it should be in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow will become a little more pronounced by this weekend, and this should allow temperatures and humidity to creep up somewhat. I still expect mostly sunny skies, and this should allow highs to reach into the low 80s, with nights warming into the 60s. We might even see a slight chance of rain as moisture levels continue to climb in the atmosphere—but the signal for this is fairly weak.

Expect a gradual warm-up this week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The overall pattern supports the passage of a cold front by around Tuesday of next week—but this is eight days into the future so it’s difficult to have too much confidence in this timing. This front, whenever it pushes through, will probably bring our region’s next real chance of rain with it as well.

Tropics

The season that won’t quit produced another hurricane this past weekend, with Hurricane Eta moving toward Nicaragua and intensifying. The 2020 Atlantic season is now tied with 2005 for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that formed, 28. Eta, unfortunately, is going to bring plenty of misery to Central America in terms of winds, but the greater threat will come from heavy rainfall due to the slow-moving system. This will cause mudslides, swollen rivers, and plenty of devastation.

Monday morning track forecast for Hurricane Eta. (National Hurricane Center)

By the coming weekend, Eta probably will reemerge into the Caribbean Sea, and over the course of next week it may threaten Cuba, Florida, or elsewhere. This is something forecasters will have to watch for awhile, but it is not a storm that should concern us in Texas or even hard-hit Louisiana.

Cool, dry, and sunny weather expected in Houston for awhile

It’s quite cold across the region this morning, ranging from a few readings in the upper 30s in some parts of Montgomery County down to around 50 degrees right along the coast. It looks like Houston’s official station, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, probably will bottom out at about 42 degrees. This is chilly, but still 7 degrees warmer than the all-time record set in 2017. Incidentally, the earliest freeze ever recorded in Houston came on October 31, 1993.

Our forecast ahead is pretty straightforward. We should see generally cooler than normal weather through the middle of next week, and our next real chance of rain is unlikely for quite some time. Enjoy fall, y’all!

It is a chilly, almost winter-like morning across the upper Texas coast on Thursday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Today will not be so nice. Although sunshine will predominate, strong northerly winds will keep things on the unpleasant side Thursday. Highs will recover into the low 60s for most of the area, but northwest winds should gust today as high as 25 mph. Winds will back off slightly this evening, but it will still be a cold, clear, breezy night with lows falling into the 40s again for most of the region.

Friday

A damn near perfect day. Highs in the low 70s. A light wind. Ample sunshine. Lows Friday night will probably be a couple of degrees warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

By late Friday we should see winds swing around to come from the east, and then southeast, but the region won’t warm up too appreciably. Under sunny skies, highs should climb into the mid-70s for most, possibly touching 80 degrees by Sunday for some locations near the coast. Lows will remain solidly in the 50s. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air arrives Sunday evening or during the overnight hours.

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast for Texas from NOAA. It looks … dry. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s through Wednesday. After that a warming trend is likely heading into the weekend, with highs rising to perhaps 80 degrees, and lows to around 60. As for rain chances, they’re going to remain low for awhile, at least until the end of the next work week.

Matt will have you covered tomorrow, when he’ll discuss all the records set by Hurricane Zeta as it strengthened Wednesday before making landfall in southeastern Louisiana—such a nasty, late season storm.

Cold front crosses Houston as Zeta strengthens, aims toward New Orleans

The cold front has finally pushed all the way into Houston and Galveston this morning, and it is going to be a cold day for the region. Yes, I said cold—as in temperatures this afternoon will likely remain in the 50s for much of the area. And the big change with this front is that it will have sticking power, as we anticipate cool, dry air hanging around into early next week. In today’s post we also discuss Hurricane Zeta, which is intensifying as it moves toward southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi.

Wednesday

The front has moved to the coast, but it still will require another shove to completely pass through. Essentially, as Hurricane Zeta moves into the Norther Gulf Coast today, and toward the northeast, this front will follow. In the meantime, we’re likely to see on-and-off light showers today, with northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Rains should end this afternoon, from west-to-east. As the front gets pulled away, we will see some clearing skies tonight, and lows should drop into the 40s for much of the area.

Here are the temperatures you’re going to wake up to on Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

Skies should be clear Thursday, but we’ll see fairly pronounced northwesterly winds as the front moves well clear of the area, perhaps gusting to 25 mph. Despite sunny skies high temperatures will probably crest in the mid-60s for most. It will be another cool, clear night with blowing winds.

Friday

Sunny, highs near 70. Damn near perfect.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend will see fine weather too, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s. A reinforcing front should reach the region by Sunday night or so, but with a dry atmosphere we don’t expect any rainfall.

Next week

The front should keep Monday and Tuesday of next week on the cool side, before we warm back up toward the 80s by Wednesday or Thursday. Rain chances likely won’t return until the end of next week, at the earliest.

Tropics

Zeta has strengthened into a hurricane overnight with 90-mph winds, and is moving rapidly toward the Mississippi River delta where it will likely make landfall this afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane. This will produce a greater than anticipated storm surge, particularly from the mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island, Alabama.

Updated track forecast for Hurricane Zeta. (National Hurricane Center)

The storm is moving quickly enough that, although it will generate heavy rainfall, accumulations should generally be less than 5 inches for most areas as storms move through. The other big concern is wind, with hurricane-force wind gusts likely in New Orleans this afternoon.

Forecast for maximum wind GUSTS from Hurricane Zeta. (Weather Bell)

Conditions should rapidly improve in Louisiana and Mississippi after the storm passes, and this cold front follows through, with a sunny, placid weekend ahead for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.