Eric Berger

Houston feeling the El Niño pattern this winter

After a stretch of intermittently sunny weather, with mostly rain-free days, Houston now returns to a more gloomy pattern. Several readers have asked why this winter has been so wet and gray, and the reason is generally due to the recent formation of a weak El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This pattern generally favors a wetter winter, and that’s precisely what we’re going to get for the rest of February, at least. (El Niño is not expected to continue into the summer, so it’s unlikely to affect the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season).

January was a typical month during a weak El Nino, with 1-2 inches of rain more than normal for most of Houston. (National Weather Service)

Tuesday

Today will be especially wet and gray, with near 100 percent rain chances for Houston. Until around sunset, bands of light to moderate rain will pulse into the region from the Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level storm system moves through the area. While conditions for heavier rain are better to the east and northeast of Houston (parts of Arkansas could see in excess of 3 inches of rain), for our region we expect most areas to receive under 0.5 inch today. Still, it will be cloudy, and cold, with highs unlikely to reach 60 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will probably fall to around 50.

Wednesday

This has the potential to be a nicer day. Sometime early Wednesday, a cold front associated with Tuesday’s rain showers will push through Houston. This will be a relatively weak front, but it should bring some drier air, and therefore rain chances for the daytime on Wednesday are fairly low. We may also see some sunshine during the afternoon and evening hours as highs rise into the low 60s.

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Rodeo on the horizon, and the forecast is mostly gray

Skies are partly clear across the region this morning, but clouds will increase throughout the day, and I’m afraid we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the week. We’ll also see healthy rain chances through Friday or Saturday—which means less-than-ideal conditions for the upcoming Houston Rodeo Cook Off, and part of the opening weekend for Mardi Gras in Galveston. We’ll dive into this in greater detail below.

Monday

With Sunday’s cold front well offshore, we’ll see a breezy, cool day today, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This is probably also the last day with near-zero rain chances until Sunday as conditions turn wetter. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 50 degrees—cooler inland and warmer near the coast. The wetter pattern should begin as soon as this evening, as light rain showers migrate inland.

Rain accumulation forecast for now through Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Broadly speaking, our pattern for much of this week will be one of a thin layer of colder air at the surface, and a warmer, moist current of air from the southwest higher up in the atmosphere. Tuesday looks especially wet, with a saturated atmosphere and near 100 percent rain chances. The heavier rain should remain largely to the northeast of Houston, with the metro area generally seeing about one-half inch of rain. All told, this will be a cold (mid-50s), damp day.

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Houston forecast sunny though Saturday, then things turn murky

Our forecast remains on track through the first half of the weekend, with mostly sunny conditions and warmer weather. After this, however, our weather turns a bit murky both literally and figuratively as a cold front stalls out near, or over the region. Certainly we’re not expecting anything too extreme, but for now the forecast is hard to parse with any great detail.

Thursday and Friday

The work week will end with a pair of fine, partly to mostly sunny days, with high temperatures generally varying from the low 70s to the upper 70s depending upon cloud cover. Nights will be moderate, with lows in the upper 50s for inland areas ranging into the low 60s for the coast. Rain chances are near zero and humidity levels will be reasonable with some drier air mixing in.

Friday will be a warm day, especially for Central Texas. (National Weather Service)

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see more of the same, although cloud cover may increase some later during the day on Saturday. This still should be a dry day for most, with highs in the mid-70s, so plan those outdoor activities with confidence. Nighttime temperatures on Saturday will be quite warm, likely in the 60s pretty much area-wide.

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Dry and mostly sunny through Saturday—gray thereafter

Houston’s weather will offer something for most people over the next week or so. Through Saturday, we’re going to see partly to mostly sunny weather, with gradually warming weather as temperatures climb through the upper 70s to perhaps 80 by Saturday. For early next week we’re going to abruptly transition back to the cold, gray, and possibly wet conditions more common during winter.

Wednesday

After this morning’s cold start, highs today will get into the mid- to upper-60s for what should be a banner day under full sunshine. As winds begin to return from the south tonight, overnight lows will only fall into the lower 50s for most of the region.

Low temperatures for Wednesday night will be more moderate. (National Weather Service)

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern will remain mild through the end of the week, as the movement of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere moves generally from west to east, keeping our region dry. The net result of this should be partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the 70s, and nighttime temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 

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