Houston feeling the El Niño pattern this winter

After a stretch of intermittently sunny weather, with mostly rain-free days, Houston now returns to a more gloomy pattern. Several readers have asked why this winter has been so wet and gray, and the reason is generally due to the recent formation of a weak El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This pattern generally favors a wetter winter, and that’s precisely what we’re going to get for the rest of February, at least. (El Niño is not expected to continue into the summer, so it’s unlikely to affect the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season).

Tuesday

Today will be especially wet and gray, with near 100 percent rain chances for Houston. Until around sunset, bands of light to moderate rain will pulse into the region from the Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level storm system moves through the area. While conditions for heavier rain are better to the east and northeast of Houston (parts of Arkansas could see in excess of 3 inches of rain), for our region we expect most areas to receive under 0.5 inch today. Still, it will be cloudy, and cold, with highs unlikely to reach 60 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will probably fall to around 50.

Wednesday

This has the potential to be a nicer day. Sometime early Wednesday, a cold front associated with Tuesday’s rain showers will push through Houston. This will be a relatively weak front, but it should bring some drier air, and therefore rain chances for the daytime on Wednesday are fairly low. We may also see some sunshine during the afternoon and evening hours as highs rise into the low 60s.

Thursday

The combination of coastal moisture and a disturbed atmosphere won’t leave things alone for too long, however. By Thursday clouds should return, and healthy 50 percent rain chances along with it. This should be a cool day, with highs around 60 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

With the return of the onshore flow, temperatures heading into the weekend will warm up quickly, and I’d anticipate highs in the mid-70s both days. We might expect even warmer weather, but clouds will dominate the skies, along with those on-again, off-again rain chances. For the most part, rains should be light to moderate, but we can’t rule out a few thunderstorms here and there.

Sunday

Another relatively weak cold front is on schedule to arrive later on Saturday, and this should dry things out for Sunday. The second half of the weekend continues to look quite nice, with highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s, mostly sunny skies, and near zero rain chances. This is looking like a great day to be outdoors.

Next week

Alas, rain chances will return by next Monday or so, and some forecast models are hinting at a fairly wet period from Monday evening through Tuesday, with perhaps 1 to 2 inches falling over the Houston area. It’s too early to have much confidence in those predictions however.