Eric Berger

In brief: Houston is continuing to see exceptionally warm weather this week, and we’ll also experience ongoing windy conditions. There will be a very slight chance of storms north of the region today and Friday, and the risk of more widespread severe weather on Saturday. Afterwards conditions appear to be gorgeous next week.

Thursday

Temperatures continue to be very warm this morning across the Houston region. The normal low for the city, on April 3, is 57 degrees. Yesterday, the minimum temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport only reached 76 degrees, which smashed the previous record for high minimum temperature of 72 degrees for the day. We’re likely to set a similar record today.

A robust southwesterly flow in the atmosphere will continue to funnel warm air into the region today and Friday. This will help push temperatures up to around 90 degrees for most of Houston today even though skies are likely to remain partly to mostly cloudy. For April, that’s impressive heating without lots of direct sunshine.

The other factor in our weather will be the presence of a frontal boundary just to the north of the Houston area. This will do a couple of things. First, it will support strong southerly winds, at about 15 mph with gusts up to 30 or 35 mph. And secondly, for northern areas (probably along and north of Highway 105) it will produce a slight chance of storms. Down in the Houston metro area we cannot rule out some sprinkles, but we should remain dry for the most part. (By the way, this storm risk is historically high in the Mid-South, and you can find more information about this on The Eyewall). Expect another very warm night in the mid-70s.

Friday

We should see similar conditions on Friday, albeit with a slightly higher chance of showers in the Houston area, and thunderstorms for locations in Montgomery County and points north. Temperatures likely will be in the upper 80s for most of the Houston area.

Saturday

I’ve had a ton of questions about weddings and various outdoor activities on Saturday, due to the timing of the front, winds, and potential for thunderstorms. We’re just now coming into the range of high-resolution models, so we should start to get better details over the next 12 to 24 hours. What we know is that a front will push into Houston on Saturday, likely reaching the urban core of the city by around noon, and pushing off the coast afterward. The entire area faces a slight risk of severe weather during this frontal passage, with the usual threats of wind, hail, and possibly a tornado. At this time, it looks like the period of most concern for storms will be from mid-morning to the early evening in Houston. We should be able to nail this down more in Friday’s post. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 50 degrees by Sunday morning.

Sunday

I expect rains to end at some point on Saturday night, but we cannot entirely rule out a few showers on Sunday morning. But skies should be clearing, and there will be plenty of drier air. Expect highs in the mid-60s, if you can believe it. It will be a bit breezy, with northerly winds of 15 mph or so, and higher gusts. These winds should die down by Sunday night, as lows drop into the upper 40s for much of the region.

Next week

Highs remain in the 70s, and lows in the 50s, through at least Wednesday of next week. Although the temperatures likely climb back into the 80s toward the end of the week, the air still looks reasonably dry. In short, it should be a splendid, spring-like week.

In brief: Today’s post discusses high winds expected over the Houston region this week, and our warm temperatures. Depending on clouds, some locations may hit 90 degrees. A strong front arrives this weekend and brings a chance of storms on Saturday. Next week looks much cooler and drier. Also, it’s bird migration time. We provide a way to track the nocturnal activity of these friendly fliers.

It’s bird migration time

I had a little fun with the headline this morning, but the reality is that April is the prime month for birds to migrate north across Texas from tropical South America and Mexico. There’s a fantastic resource called BirdCast which uses a variety of tools to track such migrations over Harris County, including weather radars and local observations. For example, the site estimates that about 600,00 birds flew overhead last night.

Migrations are also greater when winds are from the south, as this assists the flight of the birds, and we’re expecting fairly pronounced southerly winds this week. (Hence, this weather really is for the birds). Although birds will typically fly at 1,000 or more feet up in the atmosphere, they may stop to rest in our parks and coastal sanctuaries. If you want to help, you can turn out lights at night, as these can prove disorienting to birds. This video from Cornell University’s Lab of Ornithology offers much more information about all of this.

Wednesday

I wasn’t kidding about those winds. We are seeing gusts this morning of 30 mph, or higher, across much of the area, and we’re going to see fairly gusty conditions from now through Saturday. Winds should peak during the afternoon hours. Our high temperatures today will be determined by the extent to which we see clearing skies this afternoon, but my sense is that most areas will see enough clouds to hold highs in the upper 80s. But it’s still going to be quite warm and humid outside, especially with dewpoints around 70 degrees. There is a very slight chance of some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two north of Houston this afternoon and evening. We’re likely talking areas along and north of Highway 105 here, so most of the Houston region should experience none of this.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be similar days, with gusty southerly winds and temperatures slotting in between the mid-80s and 90 degrees depending on cloud cover. Thursday probably has the best chance to be sunny during the afternoon, so that’s when most of the area probably will make a run at 90 degrees. It will be humid regardless, with warm nights. Both days will have about a 10 percent chance of some showers, so most of us will be dry.

Saturday and Sunday

A strong cold front will push through the area on Saturday, likely during the daytime hours. This should bring a good shot of rain with it, along with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Although the dynamics for strong storms look better to the northeast of Houston, we certainly cannot rule out impacts in the city. We are talking about the potential for heavy rainfall, brief street flooding, damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. Again, none of these are certainties or perhaps even likely, but conditions are such that they’re possible. (Much of the city probably will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, for example). We should have a better idea about the overall threat in the coming days. The bottom line is that you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather on Saturday, especially in Kingwood and points to the northeast.

Depending on the timing, temperatures probably will reach the low- to mid-80s before the front trundles through. Lows on Saturday night will likely drop into the low 50s for much of the area. Some slight rain chances linger on Sunday, but I expect clearing skies at some point during the day. Highs probably will still only max out in the 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks sunny and spring-like. Seriously, if you like mild temperatures and dry air, I’d advise soaking next week up. We should see daytime temperatures in the 70s and nights in the 50s through Wednesday or Thursday before we warm back up into the 80s. In addition to lots of sunshine we can expect much lighter winds for the most part. Cannot wait.

In brief: Houston’s overall pattern appears to be set for the next 10 days. We’ll be breezy, warm, and humid for the rest of this week, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Saturday as a strong front rumbles through. Then, next week looks quite a bit cooler with the potential for some nights in the 40s. Also, we’re introducing an exciting new product for younger readers. Check that out at the end of today’s post.

Tuesday

We are seeing patchy fog this morning, and that’s an indication that conditions are fairly muggy outside. It also means that winds are fairly light, but that will soon change. Beginning this afternoon winds will pick up from the south at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph or so. We’re going to see fairly gusty conditions over the region for the rest of the week as a fairly tight gradient sets up. As for temperatures, we’re probably going to hold in the low- to mid-80s today, depending on the extent of cloud cover. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower 70s, so very muggy for early April.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The second half of the work week will bring similar, but still warmer conditions. Each day will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Nights will be warm and muggy. As noted above, each day will be feature a pronounced southerly wind. We cannot rule out some scattered showers on Friday afternoon or evening, but at this point it appears likely that rain will hold off until Saturday.

Saturday

Speaking of Saturday, there’s the possibility of some strong thunderstorms to go along with a frontal passage. This will be a rather strong front for April, so the setup for severe weather will be in place, but at this point we cannot have too much confidence in the details. In any case, know there is the potential for some storms on Saturday, with details to come. Highs likely will reach the mid-80s, but again this is dependent upon the timing of the front. Some showers may linger into Saturday night, when lows drop into the 50s.

Sunday

I expect some clouds to linger on Sunday, and the combination of overcast skies and the influx of cooler air my limit high temperatures in the 60s. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the upper 40s for inland areas, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Next week

Much of next week looks sunny and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s, and nights in the 40s and 50s. We’ll probably be back in the 80s by Thursday or so, but humidity levels should remain relatively low. Enjoy the dry air, as it is not clear how much more we’re going to see this spring.

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In brief: March has been fairly warm, and this coming week will bring us some of our hottest weather of the year so far. But that does not necessarily mean spring is over. In fact, next week looks to be quite a bit cooler with the possibility of lows in the 40s for a few mornings.

It’s still spring, right?

March is drawing to a close today, and by the calendar we are supposed to have two more months of spring. However, this March has been rather warm, running more than 4 degrees above normal. Moreover, this week will see several days with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. It might almost feel like summer is at hand. However, we have fairly high confidence in the arrival of a robust front this coming weekend, which will bring temperatures back into line for spring.

Monday

It is rather sticky outside this morning, with temperatures in the low- to mid-70s and dewpoints nearly as high. A very weak front is on our doorstep, and it will slowly sink into the region today, knocking down humidity slightly. Look for high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday

Some fog will be possible Tuesday morning, and as it lifts we should see mostly cloudy skies. This should help limit highs in the lower 80s. The front won’t last long, as we’ll see winds picking up from the east, and then the south later on Tuesday. They may get fairly gusty, up to 25 mph. Lows on Tuesday night will drop only into the lower 70s for most locations.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

These should be fairly similar, fairly warm days. Each day should bring partly sunny skies, and warm temperatures. Highs will vary from the upper 80s to about 90 degrees for most locations. We’ll also see gusty afternoons, perhaps peaking at 30 mph for a few hours. Nights will be quite warm, dropping only to about 75 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for this coming weekend is somewhat unsettled. Saturday looks to be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s, as an upper-level low pressure system brings elevated chances of rain into the region. At some point on Saturday or Saturday night, most likely, a stronger front will push through the region. Lows on Saturday night may drop down to around 60 degrees, depending on the timing of the front, and some showers may well linger into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday should top out in the vicinity of 70 degrees, or so. If you have outdoor plans for Saturday and Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are a concern, but not a certainty. We’ll fine tune things as the weekend gets closer.

Next week

Houston will face a nice slug of cooler weather next week. Although it’s impossible to be too precise this far out, I’m thinking days with highs of around 70 degrees and lows in the 40s or 50s. So yeah, it will be nice to have a chill in the air again for a few days. The cooler weather should hang around for most of the week.