Eric Berger

In brief: We’re posting on Sunday to provide a forecast for the Houston Marathon next weekend, as the outlook is coming into better focus. It looks decidedly colder in the wake of a front. Also, we wanted to let you know that Monday’s post will be later than normal.

Programming note

This is a special Sunday update due to the fact that we finally have increasing clarity about the forecast for a week from today, when tens of thousands of people will participate in the Houston Marathon, and more than a quarter of a million people will show up to volunteer and spectate. I’m so appreciative of everyone who is involved.

Also, I want you to know that Monday’s post could be a couple of hours late. Why? Because I’m presently in Florida for the launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, and Matt is attending the American Meteorological Society annual meeting. Finally, we are sending a shout-out to the Houston Texans for the dominating playoff win on Saturday. The team showed up when it mattered most.

Weather this week

Houston faces a rather calm week of weather, with chilly but not exceptionally cold weather. Look for highs most days to be in the 50s or lower 60s, with lows around 40 degrees give or take. Skies will be partly sunny with low rain chances after today. Friday and Saturday look warmer, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees.

Previously we’ve written that the outlook for this year’s marathon on January 19 is uncertain due to the timing of a fairly strong cold front this coming weekend. Well, we now have less uncertainty in the timing and strength of this front.

Houston marathon forecast

Since we are still almost a week out from Sunday morning, there is still some wiggle room in the forecast. However over the last 24 hours most of our modeling guidance has come into good agreement. Most likely, a front will push through Houston some time during the day on Saturday, with the potential for some rainfall (nothing too crazy, probably). Then we’ll see colder air follow overnight with gusty winds in place on Sunday morning.

Assuming this timing is correct, and again take nothing for granted this far out, expect temperatures on Sunday morning to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in downtown Houston. However, it will feel colder if winds are, as expected, out of the north and gusty. The apparent temperature may be down closer to freezing level. Conditions will probably not warm up a whole lot during the morning with additional cold air advection from the north, even if skies are clearing. The good news is that any rain will very likely have exited the area.

The rest of the week following the marathon looks rather cold, although just how very cold we cannot yet say. A freeze is definitely possible. See you tomorrow, albeit later than normal.

In brief: A coastal low pressure system will bring (mostly) moderate rain showers into the Houston area today and tonight. Although we don’t expect any significant flooding, this will be a wet, windy, and dreary day and night. Friday is colder and windy, followed by sunnier conditions this weekend. Sunday looks rather nice with highs of about 60 degrees.

Thursday

After cold, northerly winds since Sunday evening, Houston’s pattern will now change somewhat today as winds shift to become more easterly. This is due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system that will bring increased rain chances today and tonight. Pretty much everyone will see rainfall, but how much, and when?

I think we’ll see an initial pulse of light to moderate showers this morning, with perhaps a slight reprieve during the middle of the day. The best chance of moderate or heavier showers will come later this afternoon, and especially during the evening as a slug of moisture moves up the coast from the southwest to northeast. We should then see the potential for moderate showers through the night, and possibly into the morning hours on Friday. The system should exit to the east between sunrise and noon on Friday.

Most of Houston is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, and we could see some heavier bullseyes for coastal areas. I do not think these rains will cause any significant flooding issues, and therefore I am not putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place. Additionally, in the Houston metro area none of this will fall as freezing precipitation (the story could be different north of Huntsville or College Station). But do plan to take a little extra time out there because it will be fairly wet later today and tonight.

Temperatures will be in the lower 50s closer to the coast, and in the 40s further inland. The cold weather will be compounded by a strong easterly wind which may, at times, gust as high as 30 mph. So all in all, not a fun day or evening to be outside.

Friday

After the coastal low departs, we’ll see increasing northwesterly winds, and this will usher in another push of colder and drier air. So Friday will be a cold day, with highs in the lower 40s, and breezy conditions adding some wind chill on top. As skies clear out we’ll see ideal conditions for cold weather on Friday night, and much of the Houston area should see one more freeze. It will be light in Houston, but some areas in Montgomery County and to the northwest of Houston may see a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

After the chilly start, the rest of the weekend looks sunny and warmer. Highs on Saturday should reach about 50 degrees, with nighttime temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the metro area. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs of around 60 degrees. Time to get back in the pool?

Next week

Most of next week looks to be slightly warmer, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and low temperatures in the vicinity of 40 degrees. This is fairly typical weather for mid-January. We’ll see a mixture of clouds and sunshine. As we head toward next weekend highs may climb toward about 70 degrees. There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty about weather for the Houston Marathon on Sunday January 19, as it looks like a front will be trying to come through next weekend. Temperatures, and any rainfall, will depend on the timing and strength of that front. Right now I’d ballpark start line temperatures at about 50 degrees, but there remains a wide variance in possibilities.

In brief: Houston is not done with the colder weather, but our low temperatures will now moderate slightly for the next couple of days. As a coastal low pressure system approaches we’ll see increased rain chances on Thursday, and the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday evening and during the overnight hours into Friday. Sunshine returns on Friday.

Wednesday

Temperatures, generally, are in the mid- to upper-30s across most of the Houston region this morning. This is due in part to increasing cloud cover, which will also limit high temperatures today to the lower 40s. It will still feel quite chilly outside, however, as winds from the north gust up to 20 mph. So although we’re done with freezing temperatures for a bit, the brisk conditions are not going away. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s again for much of the region.

Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday morning

By Thursday morning we’ll start to see the possibility of light showers developing across Houston, and this pattern will continue through much of the day. With high temperatures in the mid-40s (even warmer near the coast) there is no threat of freezing rain or sleet in the Houston area. It appears as though the main impulse of showers and storms, due to a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, will move in on Thursday night. The best chance for heavy rain will therefore occur during the overnight hours, and closer to the coast. Much of the area is likely to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals possible. This system should push east of the area by Friday morning, (mostly) bringing an end to rain chances before noon.

Friday

Another pulse of colder and drier air will push in as the coastal low exits, and Friday looks to be a breezy and cool day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s. With skies likely to start clearing out on Friday night, expect a chilly night, with parts of Houston likely seeing a light freeze again, and far inland areas possibly experiencing a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny and milder conditions back to Houston. Expect highs of around 50 degrees on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should remain comfortably above freezing, with highs on Sunday possibly reaching as high as 60 degrees.

Next week

We’re not going to warm up much next week, with highs likely in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There’s still not a whole lot of clarity for the Houston Marathon forecast. I expect next Friday and Saturday to see a warming trend, but there’s a chance another front comes through by or before Sunday morning to cool things down. Of course a front could mean rain so yeah, the forecast remains uncertain.

In brief: The cold weather we’ve been experiencing for the last 36 hours is here to stay, as we are going to remain quite cold through Friday night. On Thursday and Thursday night we’re going to add a fair amount of rain to the mix, but fortunately this is unlikely to fall as freezing rain in Houston. The weekend looks sunny and pleasant, at least.

Cold update

Temperatures this morning have, again, fallen to just below freezing for much of the Houston area. The city’s official low temperature this morning is likely to be about 30 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is not near record territory, as the record low temperature for January 7 in Houston is 19 degrees, set in 1970.

However, both our daily high and low temperatures are running 10 to 15 degrees below normal, and what is unusual about this week’s weather is its sticking power. We’re going to remain quite cold, weather-wise, through Saturday. So if you received an ugly sweater for Christmas, at least you’re going to be able to put it to good use.

Tuesday

After the cold start this morning we will see sunny skies today, and this should help push high temperatures up to around 50 degrees. Believe it or not, this could be the warmest we get until at least Saturday, which will be the region’s next truly sunny day. Anyway, winds will be lighter today than on Monday, so it will feel less chilly outside. Low temperatures tonight will probably be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Monday night, so a light freeze is still possible in the Houston metro area, but it’s not guaranteed.

Wednesday

This will be a colder day, as winds from the north increase a bit, with gusts up to 20 mph, and we see the development of some clouds. These clouds should limit highs in the mid-40s during the daytime, but also moderate nighttime highs just a bit. Most of Houston probably will only fall into the mid- to upper-30s. That’s a good thing because beginning early Thursday we’ll start to see some rain chances.

Now I know some people will be disappointed that temperatures are not a few degrees colder, giving us the chance of snow. But I have to say, if temperatures were freezing—given the atmospheric profile—we probably would be getting freezing rain rather than snow in Houston. And let me tell you, that’s miserable, and it’s a mess on roads, and it can stick to powerlines and snap them and … well, freezing rain sucks. So let’s be glad it’s unlikely to fall here. There is a slight chance of freezing rain for counties well north of the city of Houston, including Houston (which is north of Huntsville, Texas) and Trinity counties.

Thursday

This will be a cold and gray day, with an increasing chance of showers the later we go. Like, please don’t plan any outdoor activities for Thursday or especially Thursday evening. Temperatures will be in the 40s, and winds from the northeast at 15 mph with higher gusts. And then there’s the rain. I expect much of the area to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Thursday night, with some higher totals possible. So yeah, it’s going to be cold and wet and icky. The rains will continue into Friday morning. As noted yesterday, a winter storm is likely in North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Avoid traveling there if possible.

Friday

Some rain chances linger on Friday morning before the coastal low pressure system finally clears out. Afterward expect highs in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies. We probably will see an influx of colder air as the low moves to the east on Friday, so lows on Friday night may drop back into the lower 30s on Friday night, with some parts of Houston again seeing a light freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunshine should finally return for the weekend, allowing high temperatures to reach maybe the lower 50s on Saturday, and even the 60s on Sunday. We have no real weather concerns for the weekend, so it’s something to look forward to as we’re freezing this week.

Houston Marathon

Hello, fellow runners. We’re now just 12 days away from the Houston Marathon, and we can begin to take a peek at the weather for the event. I know opinions vary, but I love cold and dry conditions. Some of you like it much warmer and even muggier. So what can we expect?

Most of next week looks to remain fairly cold. Not as cold as this week, but with lows consistently in the 40s, and possibly even 30s on some nights. However things may start to warm up some about 10 days from now. At that point there is a pretty broad divergence in the models about whether another system comes through to keep the chill going, or whether we continue to see warmer and milder weather.

So I think we cannot say much sensible about the weather yet for the marathon. It might be 40 degrees on the start line, or it might even be 60 degrees. Rain is definitely a possibility, but it’s way, way too early to make any kind of a prediction there. I’ll update the marathon forecast when there’s something I’m a little more confident in.