Eric Berger

In brief: We’re increasingly confident that a fairly robust cold front will arrive on Thanksgiving Day in Houston, bringing colder and much more seasonable weather. The good news is that there is unlikely to be any meaningful rain with the front. Today’s post breaks down what to expect on the holiday.

Hi all, just jumping in on a Sunday because we’ve finally got a little clarity on the forecast for one of the most anticipated holidays of the year: Thanksgiving. For more than a week we’ve been waffling a bit on what to expect, but we’ve finally got a bit a clarity. Hence a weekend post to tell you what we know so you can prepare accordingly.

Weather leading up to the holiday

Today and especially Monday will be hot, very hot by late November standards. With temperatures in the mid to possibly upper-80s on Monday, we’re likely to break some records. A modest front arrives on Monday night to cool us down for Tuesday, but by Wednesday we’ll be trending warmer again with an onshore flow. Although our temperatures will be swinging around, we don’t expect much if any precipitation. So pre-Thanksgiving travel across Texas should be fine.

Thanksgiving itself

A stronger front is coming on Thursday to Houston—flying in like a gaggle of turkeys, so to speak. If you live well inland, say in a place like Katy or The Woodlands, the front may already be moving in by sunrise. Or it may be a few hours later. So expect windy conditions, with gusts up to perhaps 25 mph from the north or northwest. Temperatures will be in the 60s, and likely remaining there throughout the day.

If you live in central Houston, or closer to the coast, it’s quite possible the front will lag a bit. So the morning may be warm and muggy, with temperatures in the 70s, before the front arrives during the middle of the day some time. But again, the story will be the same, with fairly robust northerly winds bringing in some drier air pretty quickly. This should be the kind of front you notice as it moves in. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the 40s, with continued breezy conditions, so keep that in mind if you’re going to be out late or up early Friday to go shopping.

Holiday weekend

The rest of the weekend looks to see partly cloudy skies, with highs generally in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. So it should feel like the holiday season. Rain chances look fairly low until early next week. We’ll have a full forecast for you on Monday morning.

Fundraiser

Just a quick word to say we’re still seeking support to fund all of our activities for the coming year. Head over here to donate or buy merchandise. Thank you so much to everyone who has donated so far.

In brief: Houston is experiencing its coldest night of the fall season so far, with temperatures dropping into the mid-30s in some inland locations. We’ll continue to see fall-like weather into Saturday before we warm up for a few days. If you’re wondering about the Thanksgiving forecast, it’s about as clear as plum pudding.

Plans for next year

As we continue our annual fundraiser (you can click here to find more information on how to donate, or buy merchandise), I wanted to talk a little bit about our plans for next year on Space City Weather. Here are some of our goals for 2025:

• Update our flood scale with the latest social science research
• Major overhaul of our iOS and Android apps to modernize their back end
• Big, public celebration of our 10th anniversary
• Additional partnerships with the community to support worthwhile projects

Thursday

Temperatures this morning range from the mid-30s in Montgomery County to the upper 50s on Galveston Island, which gives you some sense of the geographic diversity of the Houston region, and the challenge of forecasting weather across such a broad and diverse area. In any case, it’s the coldest night of the season so far, and you’ll probably want a sweater or jacket on the way out the door.

High temperatures today will reach about 70 degrees beneath sunny skies. Winds will be light from the north or northwest today. With dewpoints in the 20s this afternoon, the air will feel very, very dry for Houston. Temperatures tonight will be chilly again, but likely 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

A day that will be a lot like Thursday, with ample sunshine and drier air. High temperatures will be a touch warmer, in the low 70s, with overnight lows dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler temperatures for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure makes its way to the exits, we’ll see the onshore flow returning this weekend. Highs on Saturday will still hold in the mid-70s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies, and fairly low humidity. But overnight temperatures will only drop to about 60 degrees. The second half of the weekend will see the return of some clouds, a bit more humidity, and high temperatures in the lower 80s. The weekend looks rain-free, so any activities you have planned are good to go.

Next week

Trying to forecast the weather for next week really ruffles my feathers. That’s right, you’re going to get plenty of Thanksgiving puns right up to the holiday itself.

Monday looks warm, with highs in the mid-80s and a warm night. At that point a weak front may sag into the area—we’ll see if it has enough oomph to push all the way through—and this could knock temperatures back slightly on Tuesday.

A stronger front is probably coming later in the week, but whether that’s on Wednesday night, Thursday, or Thursday night is not something we can say for sure. And with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, the timing really matters, especially since there is likely to be a little rain with the front. In any case, I’d expect daily highs to be around 80 degrees ahead of the front, and likely falling back to the 60s afterward. So yeah there’s a wide range of possibilities still on the table for Thanksgiving. Next weekend should be colder, however, with nights in the 40s or 50s.

In brief: Houston finally feels like fall, and the colder weather will stick around into Saturday. Rain chances are basically nil for the next seven days. Next week we’ll see a distinct warmup, and it’s still too early to tell whether a front will arrive in time to cool us down for Thanksgiving.

Fall arrives in Houston for a while

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 50s across the region, away from the coast, following the arrival of secondary surge of colder air. The next three nights will all be colder still, with lows in the 40s for much of the region before a warmup this weekend. Normal low temperatures for this time of year are about 50 degrees, so we’ll be a few degrees below our typical weather for the back-end of November for a few days.

Wednesday

We’re seeing some gusty winds this morning, up to 25 mph or even a bit higher, as this second front moves into the region. These winds should die down somewhat this afternoon. High temperatures today will push into the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with sunny skies. As winds slacken tonight, with clear skies, we should see ideal conditions for cooling. This will allow lows to drop into the upper 40s in the urban core of Houston, lower 40s for surrounding suburbs, and possibly upper 30s for areas west of Katy and north of The Woodlands. This will be our region’s coldest night of the season so far.

Thursday and Friday

Expect more sunny weather, cooler temperatures, and dry air. Highs both days will be about 70 degrees, with nighttime temperatures in the upper 40s for Houston, and a little bit cooler for outlying areas. Winds will generally be light, from the north. This will be fine, fall-like weather.

Saturday and Sunday

By the weekend we’ll start to feel the effects of the onshore flow. Saturday will bring more sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. The air will still feel reasonably dry, but overnight lows will only fall to around 60 degrees on Saturday night. Sunday will be moderately humid, with highs around 80 degrees or a tick higher. There may be a few clouds. All in all, it’s a fine weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

The first part of next week still looks fairly warm, with high temperatures in the low 80s, and mild nights in the 60s. At some point a decent front is likely to pass through the area, but whether that’s in time to cool us down for Thanksgiving remains very much an open question. This makes it difficult to forecast weather for the holiday, so for now I’m just going to wave my arms and ruffle my feathers, and say, stay tuned.

Fundraiser

The response to our annual fundraiser so far has been tremendous! We’ve still got about 10 days to go, and your support makes a meaningful difference in our ability to serve everyone in the Houston area. If you’re interested in helping out, please consider donating or purchasing merchandise here.

In brief: In the wake of Monday’s front, Houston’s weather will now be sunny and cooler for the rest of the week, before a warmup this weekend. Today’s post assesses just how cool our nights will get. Then, we’ll look ahead to an uncertain forecast for Thanksgiving, nine days from now. Finally, we talk about a nice accolade for the site.

A few notes

Thank you to everyone who voted for Matt and I, as we were formally named “Houstonian of the year” on Monday by Houstonia magazine. We have been doing the no-hype thing for more than nine years now, and it is wonderful to be recognized by the community for our efforts to produce reliable information.

If you’re interested in space, I’ll be giving a talk at North Shepherd Brewing today at 6:30 pm CT, as part of the “Pint-Sized Science” series to broaden science in a fun and public way. There’s no charge. More information can be found here.

Finally, we’re right in the middle of our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. Thank you, sincerely, to everyone who has contributed so far. We use these funds to keep the website and app going all year long—rain or shine, flood or drought. You can find out how to donate, or purchase merchandise, right here.

Tuesday

Most of the region saw at least a smattering of rain, and some parts of Houston picked up 1 inch or more as a cool front pushed into the region on Monday. That should be the end of the rain for at least a week, and we’re unlikely to even see so much as a few clouds until Friday or Saturday. Rather, it’s going to be sunshine and drier air for awhile. High temperatures today are going to push into the upper 70s to about 80 degrees, but with lower dewpoints the air will not feel humid. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-50s. The thing to watch for after midnight will be increasing winds from the northwest, gusting up to 20 to 25 mph. This will represent a surge of colder and drier air that will really bring us into November-like weather.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures of about 70 degrees, and rather dry air. Winds will generally be light. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights will all be chilly, likely getting into the upper 40s for much of Houston. Wednesday night should be the coolest night, however, with far inland parts of our region dropping into the upper 30s. Sweater weather, finally?

Saturday and Sunday

Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, but we’ll start to see some clouds as a southerly flow returns. Highs on Saturday should reach the mid-70s, with overnight lows around 60 degrees. Sunday will be a bit more humid, with highs of around 80 degrees. If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, you should have zero concerns.

Next week, plus an early look at Thanksgiving

Monday and Tuesday of next week will, almost certainly, be rather warm and muggy. I suspect most of the region will be in the mid-80s. (Record highs for next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are 86, 86, and 84 degrees, respectively. We will be close to that). Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s. So very un-holiday-like.

However, there’s a pretty strong signal for a front to arrive in the middle of next week. The major operational models bring the front through by Wednesday, but when we dig deeper into the ensembles there’s definitely some risk that the front is delayed to Thursday, which is of course Thanksgiving. There’s likely to be some rain with the front, although right now there’s no evidence of a major line of storms or anything.

So where does that leave us? We’re going to have to give you a probabilistic forecast at this point. By this, I mean the most likely outcome is that the front makes it through on Wednesday, and Thanksgiving ends up with high temperatures in the 60s, and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies but no rain. However, there’s a decent chance (one-in-three, maybe?) that the front is slower and doesn’t arrive until Thanksgiving Day. In such a scenario the holiday may be fairly warm and muggy, with a health chance of showers. That sure would be a turkey of a forecast.