Eric Berger

In brief: We have a comprehensive update on what we expect to be two rounds of storms, one early Saturday, and another later on Saturday evening, that are likely to buffet Houston with heavy rains and strong winds. In between we still expect to have fair conditions for our Fall Day celebration on Saturday. And we have fall-like weather in the forecast to celebrate!

Fall Day update

As we noted yesterday, despite the prospect of storms this weekend, we plan to press ahead with our Fall Day celebration from 10 am to noon CT on Saturday, at Midtown Park. Yes, there will be storms early Saturday morning, but we expect the main line to have largely cleared by the time of our event. Temperatures should be in the low 70s. If there are a few scattered showers we will have plenty of cover at the park. We continue to watch the forecast closely, and will adjust our plans accordingly if conditions are unsafe. But right now the weather looks favorable for mid- to late morning on Saturday. And we have reasons to celebrate: drought-busting storms and the promise of much cooler weather next week. See you there?

Friday

Skies today should start out mostly clear, but we’ll see clouds building this afternoon as atmospheric moisture levels rise. We should see some scattered showers south and west of Houston later this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be rather sporadic. Expect highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations. It will be breezy, with southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph.

Tonight we will need to cast our gaze to the west, as a strong line of thunderstorms (in association with an upper-level disturbance) forms in Central Texas along the I-35 corridor and begins to march toward Houston. In terms of timing I expect this line to reach College Station around 1 to 3 am; the central Houston area between 3 and 6 am, and the coast between 6 and 8 am. This line of storms should bring 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals, in addition to the potential for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

We’ll be back with a forecast update later today to confirm the timings above.

Saturday

This line of storms should move eastward by mid-morning, leaving in its wake some scattered showers and possibly a few hours of clearing skies. However, by Saturday afternoon or evening we are likely to see the formation of another storm system to the northwest of Houston, in association with a weak front. This is likely to bring another round of storms into the metro area during the evening or overnight hours. These storms could be just as severe as those early Saturday morning, with the added bonus of hail. So it could be a second night for excitable dogs. Anyway I’m hopeful (but not certain) this second system will have moved through by around midnight or shortly after. Things should calm down a bit in its wake.

In terms of total rainfall, both of these rounds of storms should bring a combined 2 to 4 inches to most locations, with higher isolated totals. I don’t anticipate widespread flooding given how parched our soils are, but the heaviest rains will be coming at night, so please take care on roads and do not drive into high water. Hazards may be hidden.

Sunday

Some showers may linger on Sunday morning, but I expect to see clearing skies and, with slightly drier air, a pleasant day with highs of around 80 degrees.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be slightly warmer days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. However, a front with more cold air behind it looks set to arrive on Tuesday, and this will usher in decidedly fall-like weather for the remainder of next week. (Probably not much, if any, rain with this front). We are talking a few days of highs in the 70s (Thursday might even top out in the 60s) with nights probably in the 50s through the weekend. Halloween, for the most part, looks to be clear and cool for your trick-or-treating desires. Ideal weather on Halloween in Houston? It’s been awhile.

In brief: We’ve (obviously) been following the forecast for Saturday morning closely, given our Fall Day celebration. At this point we’ve made the decision to go ahead with the gathering. This update explains why, and how you can participate.

Let’s start this post with a fun fact: Today is actually the 10th anniversary of Space City Weather. No kidding. You can read the very first post right here. I started the site on a Friday afternoon because I was concerned about storms that weekend. And here we are 10 years later, same week in October, concerned about weekend storms. It’s funny how history rhymes, if it does not outright repeat.

Speaking of those storms, I have to tell you, Matt and I have been agonizing over the forecast because we have our big Fall Day event planned for Saturday morning. We’ve spent a fair amount of money preparing some special tote bags and t-shirts for this day, and Reliant has invested a lot for a great setup of Midtown Park. It is not easy to delay or reschedule. So for now, we are planning to move ahead with the celebration.

Why? Our primary concern is a line of storms that will move through Houston on Saturday. At this time we think they probably will clear the area by 9 am, but we are not certain. There is a risk that the line moves a little bit slower. So we are going to watch things closely, and if we need to postpone our Fall Day event, we will do so. This will be clearly communicated right here, and on our social channels if the need arises. We are absolutely going to prioritize safety. But we think there’s a path forward to having a great event on Saturday.

Here’s what else we want you to know:

Timing: We’ll be at Midtown Park from 10am to noon, and folks are welcome to swing by whenever there’s a break in the weather. If we need to stay a bit longer to make sure we connect with everyone, we’re happy to do that. Rain gear and smiles encouraged!

Setup: Although the main line of storms should be through, there may be some lingering showers. So we’re shifting as much as possible to the covered stage area of the park and adding a few tents for extra coverage. All the fun stuff (giveaways, kid pumpkin art station, face painting, 360 photo booth) will still be there. Chalk wall, lawn games, etc. will likely go away given the weather. And of course, we’ll have free totes (to the first 100 guests) and special 10th anniversary shirts available for purchase.

Parking: There is a parking garage on Travis, next to the park, that will have ample space and I’ve been told it will be free on Saturday morning. So this should not be an issue.

Thanks for your patience as we have worked through a difficult situation. The good news is that we have really hit a home run here by scheduling the event on October 25th, because now we can take credit for knocking out the region’s emerging drought. You’re welcome, everyone!

In brief: Today’s post discusses the rounds of rain (some heavy) that will come to Houston this weekend, likely bringing us much needed relief from an emerging drought. We are also increasingly confident in a fine, fall front next week.

Pattern change ahead

It has been a remarkably dry September and October in Houston, and we’re not talking about booze. Although we have had some weak fronts back door into the region, none have produced enough atmospheric disruption to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, that will change over the course of the coming week. We are going to see an initial front on Saturday that will bring a couple of rounds of storms, but not too much cooling. Then next week, probably in the vicinity of Wednesday, we are going to see a stronger front that seems unlikely to bring much rain, but will bring significant cooling into the area. If you’ve been waiting for rain, or fall, or both, you’re in luck!

Thursday

Today will be our last day with near-zero rain chances until next week, although we cannot rule out a few isolated showers this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with winds turning more east-southeast, we will see humidity levels rise from what we experienced on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s. A few far inland areas may push upward toward 90 degrees, and I’m going to be a little risky here and predict this is our last chance to hit that mark in the year 2025. Lows tonight will be warmer, only falling to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Friday will likely see mostly sunny skies to start, but then with building clouds during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall I still expect this activity to be fairly scattered. So if your plans include Friday Night Lights, the games may well get played. By Friday night we’ll want to keep an eye on conditions to our west. We expect a line of storms to form near the I-35 corridor in Central Texas around midnight, and then advance toward the Houston region overnight.

Saturday

The squall line mentioned above will probably—and bear in mind there remains uncertainty in this timing—push through the Houston metro area around dawn, perhaps in the 6 am to 9 am time frame. Some of these storms could be severe, with the threat of hail. But overall severe storms appear to be less of a threat than heavy rainfall. We need the rain, and it could come in bunches. We expect this line to move through and then to (maybe) be followed by a brief lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Careful readers will know we are planning Fall Day festivities from 10 am to Noon in Midtown Park on Saturday. I’ll be back later this morning with a word on our final decision about whether we are going to press ahead. So stay tuned.

Anyway, the front itself should drive another round of showers later on Saturday or Saturday night. All told we think the majority of the region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, but higher local amounts will be possible. Since our soils are so dry they should be able to absorb much of this rainfall, so flooding is not a major concern at this time. But we’ll be watching closely. Temperatures on Saturday should be in the 70s for the most part.

Sunday

Rain chances will be lower (but non-zero) on Sunday. Expect highs in the lower 80s with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 60s, with a bit of drier air.

Next week

The details are still a bit fuzzy, but I think we can expect highs in the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a front that will bring drier and cooler air. Anyone ready for lows in the 50s? Because I think that’s coming.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss rainfall amounts for this weekend, when we are likely to see our greatest totals in a quite some time. We also provide an update on our Fall Day celebration, and look ahead to a stronger front next week.

Eric, isn’t Fall Day on Saturday?

Yes, it is. Somehow, the “geniuses” who run Space City Weather scheduled Fall Day for Saturday October 25th, a day when the region has its best chance of widespread rain in quite literally months. The reality, of course, is that such events take a lot of planning (which Reliant has really been helping us with), including scheduling Midtown Park, ordering all sorts of things, and inviting a lot of different groups to come make the day special for everyone. So we selected October 25th earlier this summer.

So what are we going to do? For now we are still planning to hold Fall Day from 10 am to Noon CT on Saturday, pending the forecast. There remains a fair bit of uncertainty in the timing of the storms on Saturday (they could be pre-dawn, they could be mid-morning smack during Fall Day, or around noon or later). If the gathering poses any danger to people we are going to cancel it of course, but we want to wait a little while longer to make a final decision. Matt and I know better than anyone how forecasts can shift. Thanks for your interest and patience.

Wednesday

We should have held Fall Day today! It’s pleasant outside this morning, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 60s. With modest easterly winds throughout the day, humidity will remain low as high temperatures reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will start to creep back up overnight, so although inland areas probably will drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s, coastal areas may well be a bit warmer late tonight.

Thursday

As the onshore flow resumes we may see a few more clouds in the sky, and humidity will go up as well. Highs likely will crest in the mid-80s before a mild night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. There is a slight chance of showers near the coast.

Friday and Saturday

We should see some sunshine on Friday morning, but clouds will start to build later in the day. An upper-level low pressure system and an accompanying front at the surface will advance toward the area, and overall dynamics support the development of showers and thunderstorms to go along with it. The timing is our real point of uncertainty. Generally what I expect is scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and night (highs in the 80s on Friday). At some point a line of storms will push through the area along with the surface front, but whether that happens earlier Saturday or later in the day, we just don’t know yet. But at some point we’re going to see moderate to heavy rainfall. Although totals will vary widely, most of the region should pick up 1 to 4 inches. We hope to have better details about all of this for you in tomorrow’s forecast update, when we begin to have improved high resolution data. Anyway, highs on Saturday will likely be in the 70s (at least we got that part of Fall Day correct, hah).

Sunday

Rain chances won’t go away during the second half of the weekend, but they should be decidedly lower than Saturday. Expect a high near 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs in the low- to mid-80s with muggier air before a stronger front arrives (Wednesday, maybe?) The details of this are still pretty fuzzy, but we can almost assuredly expect to see some much drier and colder air.