Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses the likelihood of widespread rainfall today and Wednesday ahead of the first of several decently strong cold fronts. Speaking of which, there’s the possibility of a freeze over the next 10 days, so we don’t advise planting tender plants just yet.

Winter is not over yet

Houston has had an anomalously warm start to February, with an average temperature of 72.1 degrees. This is a shocking 16.2 degrees above normal through the first third of the month. Beginning Wednesday we’re going to enter a cooler, more seasonal pattern. Looking ahead, global models are pointing to the possibility of two stronger cold fronts next week.

The first of these arrives Sunday, and the second possibly by next Thursday or so. One or maybe both of these could drive Houston’s lows into the 30s, and there’s a distinct chance of a light freeze about 10 days from now. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s definitely possible. So hold off on gardening for a little while longer.

Tuesday

Today is likely to be a fairly wet day. We don’t really have any significant flooding concerns, but streets could pond over amid some of the stronger showers or thunderstorms. The rain will be somewhat scattered this morning before showers become more widespread this afternoon as the atmosphere turns unstable. Showers will likely peak in coverage this afternoon before rain chances diminish somewhat overnight. This won’t be the end of the rain, as we are likely to see another round of showers on Wednesday morning along with the front.

Temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 60s across much of Houston, and they’re going to remain there all day with cloudy skies and the potential for rain. Winds will be gusty, varying from the south, east, and northwest. Lows tonight will only fall into the low- to mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Additional showers are possible on Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours, ahead of the actual cool front. Between now and Wednesday afternoon I expect most of Houston to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although amounts could be a little bit higher for areas well inland, including The Woodlands and points north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s for most before drier air moves in during the evening hours. Temperatures will start to fall before midnight, and by early Thursday morning temperatures for most of the area should dip into the upper 40s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will see gusty, northerly winds and Thursday night will be quite chilly, in the low- to mid-40s. Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the 50s, as the flow turns more southerly.

Saturday

A warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll again see the potential for some widespread (mostly light?) showers ahead of the next front. Accumulations don’t look overly impressive, but bear in mind the potential for rain if you’re planning outdoor activities. Colder air likely arrives overnight, pushing lows on Sunday morning into the 40s.

Sunday

Sunshine returns for the second half of the weekend, but with a colder, northerly flow high temperatures will likely be in the 50s. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the upper 30s in Houston, give or take. We’ll see.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather rolls on, with highs by the middle of next week likely rebounding into the 70s. However, most of our guidance points toward a fairly strong front for the second half of next week. This is when I think there’s at least a decent chance to see a widespread freeze in Houston.

In brief: Today’s post looks ahead to when Houston will start to feel more like winter again (the answer for most of us is Thursday morning). Additionally, with the potential for significant budget cuts on the horizon, we discuss how NOAA and the National Weather Service provide considerable value.

The value of the National Weather Service

There has been a lot of talk about cutting the US government via the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which is ostensibly assessing the performance of each US agency to improve its output. There are a lot of strong feelings about the actions of this body, spearheaded by Elon Musk, and it is beyond the scope of this website to judge its value. Suffice it to say we believe there is bloat in the US government that ought to be addressed, but at the same time US agencies provide valuable services, and most civil servants are trying to do the right thing.

This morning I want to write a few words about the value brought by the federal government’s weather and climate agency, NOAA, in general; and one of its organizations, the National Weather Service, in particular. We strongly believe that NOAA and the National Weather Service provide tremendous value to American taxpayers that cannot easily be replicated by private companies—most definitely including Space City Weather.

NOAA collects an extraordinary amount of data about our planet’s atmosphere and oceans every day. They send hundreds of weather balloons into the skies. They have a vast network of buoys and weather stations. They operate state-of-the-art radars. When there is a hurricane, NOAA and its partners operate a fleet of aircraft and professionals that fly into the maw of the storm to gather vital data that is used to make warnings, and improve forecasts.

It not only collects this data, but NOAA plays an important role in weather modeling, operating one of the world’s premiere computational forecast systems. Moreover, its high-resolution models are vital to predicting thunderstorms and severe weather on a local scale, as well as the evolution of hurricanes. Matt and I use these high-resolution models every day. And NOAA shares all of this data and information, for free, with the world to improve weather prediction.

During hurricane season, much of the world looks to the National Hurricane Center in Miami for actionable information. But within NOAA there is also the Storm Prediction Center, which forecasts tornado outbreaks and other severe weather; the Weather Prediction Center, which forecasts rainfall amounts; and of course the National Weather Service, which has offices around the country, including one in the Houston-Galveston area. Dedicated meteorologists there provide around-the-clock forecasts and issue life-saving warnings. Matt and I know these people, and they work really hard for all of us.

Local decisionmakers and Emergency Management System officials in every city and county in America rely on local forecast officers for everything from closing roads and schools, to calling for evacuations and or opening cooling centers, and so much more.

So can’t we just privatize all of this? Not easily. Most private weather companies do not collect essential data about our atmosphere or oceans, or issue public warnings. Typically, they provide proprietary forecasts that tailor and fine-tune public information for specific applications beyond the core mission of the National Weather Service. No private company could provide high quality forecasts if not for the data that NOAA freely disseminates.

What about just getting forecasts from the app on my phone? Well, a lot of the weather apps on your phone are serviced by back-end data provided by the National Weather Service (including ours), or the models operated by NOAA. And those fancy radars on your phone telling you when to stay put? Those are operated by NOAA.

The bottom line is that it would be a bad idea to take a hammer and start whacking NOAA and the National Weather Service. If there is bloat, or fraud, or waste, by all means root it out. But if we destroy the core mission of these valuable federal weather services, we will all lose.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are somewhat cooler, with a weak front having pushed into Houston and all the way down to the coast. The key word here is weak, and the front’s impact won’t last for long, especially for areas south of I-10. With that said, temperatures today will generally be in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies helping to keep us on the cooler side. Winds will be out of the east this morning, but should gradually turn southeast this afternoon and evening, and this southerly flow will only allow lows to drop into the low- to mid-60s for much of Houston.

Tuesday

Weather on Tuesday will be warmer and more dynamic. Highs will reach near 80 degrees for much of the area, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for some light showers on Tuesday morning, with an increasing chance of rain and the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper atmosphere becomes more perturbed. Rain chances slacken a bit Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This will be another warm day, with highs in the 70s to 80 degrees. We’re going to see another chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cool front, which should arrive later in the day. It is not entirely clear how long it will take the cooler and drier air to move down through the area, but Wednesday night will be notably cooler for areas inland of Interstate 10, with cooler air probably coming in for coastal areas later.

Thursday

This will be a notably cooler day, with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s, with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few lingering showers. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

At this point, it looks like we’ll start warming up again on Friday and especially Saturday, with highs climbing back into the 70s by Saturday, with rising humidity levels. Another cold front appears likely to pass through the area on Saturday night-ish, which will push us back into winter-like temperatures on Sunday, with highs likely only in the upper 50s or so. The details on this are a bit fuzzy, but basically Saturday should be warm, and Sunday quite a bit cooler with a better chance for clear skies.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather continues, most likely, with a succession of fronts bringing varying weather conditions from spring- to winter-like. Several readers with itchy gardening inclinations have asked about the likelihood of another freeze in the Houston area this year, and that’s a topic I’ll address in tomorrow’s post.

In brief: Houston’s above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, as we feel like late spring outside. A weak front approaches the area on Sunday, but significantly cooler weather will not arrive until some time next week.

Thursday

We’re seeing additional areas of patchy fog this morning, due to warm air moving over coastal waters, and this pattern is likely to continue through at least Saturday morning. Once the fog dissipates, we’ll experience mostly sunny skies and another warm day, with high temperatures in the low 80s. If you’re wondering whether this is normal for early February, no it is not. These high temperatures are characteristic of late April, and our overnight lows of early May. Winds will generally be light today, from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-60s for most locations.

Friday

Good news: If you liked Thursday’s weather, Friday will be a carbon copy.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be quite warm, with high temperatures likely pushing into the mid-80s for areas away from the coast. We will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, and lows only dropping into the upper 60s. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday there are few concerns aside from the warmer-than-normal conditions.

Sunday

A fairly weak front will approach the Houston area and then stall out on Sunday. Precisely what this means for our weather is not certain, but I think we’ll probably just see a few degrees knocked off of high temperatures. I’m thinking highs in the upper 70s for most of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Given the proximity of the front, we cannot entirely rule out a few sprinkles, but I think we’ll be mostly rain free. Sunday night may be a few degrees cooler.

Next week

We’re probably going to start off next week in the 70s, and we’ll likely see daily rain chances on the order of 30 to 40 percent as the atmosphere becomes a bit more turbulent due to some upper-level disturbances. Eventually this is likely to bring in some cooler and more seasonable air, but whether that happens on Tuesday or Wednesday, or a bit later in the week is yet to be determined. We shall see.

In brief: Houston’s early February warm spell is bringing record high temperatures and plenty of sea fog, and this pattern is unlikely to change before at least Sunday. And even then there is some uncertainty about the timing and strength of a front that will be moving down toward Houston.

Unseasonably warm

We’re starting to set some fairly serious heat records with this present warm spell. The high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday afternoon reached 84 degrees, smashing the previous record of 81 degrees for the city of Houston, set during 1957. The city of Galveston, too, eked out a new record of 75 degrees, besting a mark of 74 degrees originally set way, way, way back in 1890 (and subsequently tied in 1957). With a very warm southerly flow in place for the remainder of the week, we can expect more records to fall in the coming days.

Wednesday

Warm air temperatures are continuing to contribute to the development of sea fog across coastal areas, as this air moves over the cooler Gulf waters. In addition, we’re seeing some light, misty rain in coastal areas. If you’re driving through the soupy air, take a little extra time and give the car ahead of you a little more space. This fog should dissipate between 9 and 10 this morning. Afterward, highs today will reach around 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Lows tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday

The warm pattern continues, with sea fog possible in the early morning hours. Highs will be in the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We can be confident in the weather for the first half of the weekend. It will be warm, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the lower to possibly mid-80s, pushing record levels. (This is moderately amusing because about 10 days ago you may recall some social mediarologists telling us about an “Arctic blast” coming through during the weekend of Saturday, February 8). A weak front will approach the Houston area on Saturday night and Sunday, but it remains an open question as to whether the front will make it all the way into Houston proper. Accordingly my best guess is that highs reach about 80 degrees on Sunday, but there’s some uncertainty around that. As the front stalls, we may see a few scattered showers.

Next week

At some point next week a stronger push of cooler air is likely to come down, but how strong and how long it lasts remains to be seen. Perhaps we’ll see a night or two in the 40s.