Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we reflect on the horrors of the flooding in Central Texas on the Fourth of July. With our local forecast, we are going to see the return of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms for a few days this week before coverage probably wanes some heading into the weekend.

Some Central Texas thoughts

Like so many of you, Matt and I watched the flooding tragedy unfold in Central Texas over the holiday weekend in horror. At last count more than 80 people have died, including some young people from Houston at Camp Mystic. As a father of two daughters, the single greatest fear in my life is that something serious happens to one of my kids. I cannot imagine the grief and anger and sadness and other incredibly strong emotions that affected family members are now feeling. You have our love and sympathy.

Matt wrote about the meteorology behind this historic flooding over on The Eyewall this weekend. The basic story is that the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled over Central Texas, setting the stage for heavy rainfall not dissimilar to what the Houston region experienced during Hurricane Harvey nearly eight years ago. The rains were not as long-lasting, as Central Texas is further from the Gulf and an efficient source of moisture. But the rain was extreme, and rapidly led to catastrophic flooding.

Overall we don’t believe the recent cuts to the National Weather Service by the Trump Administration—which are concerning for multiple reasons, and will negatively impact forecasting—played a significant role in warnings issued for this storm. The relevant offices of the weather service were reasonably well staffed, and they issued warnings in a timely manner. Yes, the overall rain totals in parts of Kerr County over-performed expectations, but flash flood warnings were in place for the region.

I think a major part of the problem is that these floods developed after midnight on a major holiday. Additionally, the most affected areas were largely remote, with some places lacking even a cell phone signal. So although there were flash flood warnings in place when the waters began rising, they were not seen or, in some cases heeded. That is not to say the forecasts were perfect. In an ideal world residents in these areas would have had days of warnings, rather than hours, but this is not always the case in extreme weather. For example, Harvey’s flooding was relatively well forecast in Houston before landfall, but the derecho in May 2024 was not well predicted. Meteorologists are not perfect, and neither are our forecasts.

A couple of readers have said they were disappointed that Space City Weather did not sound the warning on these storms. I hear you, but I would like to say a couple of things. Firstly, Kerrville and areas surrounding it lie very far outside of our forecast area. They are 250 miles from Houston, and our focus is this metro area and surrounding counties. We are intensely local. If this were an Austin- or San Antonio-based site, it would be a completely different story.

Second, when I looked at all of this on Thursday morning, the forecast for heavy rainfall did not look overly extreme in Central Texas. Some bad rains, certainly. But not what ultimately transpired. If we had really known what was was about to happen early on the Fourth of July, if we could have saved lives amid this awful natural disaster, we would have shouted it from the rooftops, even if it was far away in Texas. The reality is we did not. I dearly wish it were otherwise.

Monday

After largely rain-free conditions across the region this weekend in Houston, the atmosphere above our area will become more favorable to showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. In the absence of high pressure, with the region open to the Gulf, rain chances will be on the order of 50 percent or higher on Monday, and likely for much of the coming week. Chances will peak during the late morning and afternoon hours as showers and thunderstorms spread inland. These storms will definitely be hit or miss, but where they “hit” they could quickly produce on the order 1 inch of rain or more. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s, with lows in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rains likely peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with chances of 60 percent or higher for most of the area. Again we expect some pockets of heavier rainfall in which 1 to 2 inches may fall, whereas the vast majority of Houston will probably see less. Daily shower chances will help to corral high temperatures in the lower 90s for much of Houston. Although we don’t anticipate significant flooding, we are going to be watching this setup closely.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

There is not yet a clear signal for when high pressure will return in force for the greater Houston region. It may happen as early as Friday or Saturday, or it may not be until some time next week. As a result the forecast for this weekend is kind of fudged. Generally we can probably expect high temperatures in the mid-90s. Let’s go ahead and ballpark a 30 percent chance of daily rain showers, but if you asked me how confident I felt in that I would say not very. We’ll likely have to adjust that number upward or downward as we get closer to the coming weekend.

Atlantic tropics

Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened to become a depression over the eastern United States, and is on its way to dissipating. Beyond this, the tropics are quiet. With another large plume of Saharan dust moving off of Africa, I think it’s most likely that tropical activity remains low over the next week or so. In any case there’s nothing I’m watching that is giving me too much concern.

In brief: A passing shortwave will bring a decent chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday. However we expect dry weather for fireworks on the Fourth of July, and most of the weekend should be rain-free. Temperatures look to remain hot for awhile, as is expected during July.

A shortwave surprise

One thing about meteorology is that it always keeps you on your toes. For several days now we’ve been predicting that high pressure would largely keep rain chances at bay during the second half of this week. But now it turns out that high won’t be quite strong enough to keep an atmospheric disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, from sliding into the region today. It is unlikely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, but there should at least be some scattered activity this afternoon, and a few showers on the Fourth of July as well. I still don’t anticipate any impacts on fireworks, however.

Thursday

The radar is quiet right now, but later this morning we are likely to see some showers develop to the west of the region. These should progress toward Houston during the middle of the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area this afternoon. Overall, your chance of seeing precipitation is probably about one-in-three. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at about 5 mph. Rain chances die off tonight, with muggy conditions and lows in the upper 70s.

Friday

The Fourth of July will bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures in the mid-90s or thereabouts. We will again see a chance of rain, although coverage might be slightly less than Thursday. So we should be somewhere between scattered and isolated showers. I expect these to diminish during the evening hours, so impacts on fireworks should be negligible. Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are low to non-existent on Saturday. They look a little bit higher on Sunday, perhaps 30 percent, with the same heat and humidity.

Next week

Another disturbance is likely to traverse the area on Monday, leading to an elevated chance of rain before high pressure returns again. Most of next week will probably see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight chance of rain along the sea breeze. So, all in all, it should be pretty July-like.

In brief: Houston’s weather will largely deliver sunshine and humidity through the holiday weekend, although we cannot entirely rule out a few sporadic showers today and Thursday. Rain chances start to improve early next week.

Big picture overview

A ridge of high pressure is building over the region, and it will remain in place through the Fourth of July holiday weekend. That is not to say we are going to see no variation, but the next five days are likely to consist of mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most areas away from the coast, and plenty of humidity. Aside from the heat, which is a little bit warmer than normal for early July but far from atypical here, wind and other conditions look mild. If you’re planning a BBQ or other gathering for the holiday weekend, you’ve got no concerns aside from the potential for sunburns.

Wednesday and Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today and Wednesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the mid-90s. There is enough moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours (primarily driven by the sea breeze), but I would rate these chances at about 10 percent. So possible, yes. But unlikely. You may also see a bit of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, but the amount is less than we had last month. Winds will be light most of the day, but may rise to about 10 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows likely will not fall below the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The holiday weekend will bring pretty much standard July weather to the area: hot, humid, and mostly sunny. Temperatures for fireworks on Friday night will still be solidly in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances are virtually zero on Friday and Saturday, but we may see the return of some sea breeze-driven showers by Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

Our global models continue to indicate high pressure dominating our weather this week will start to weaken by Sunday or Monday, and this in turn should open us back up to the possibility of more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and perhaps high temperatures a degree or two lower. I’m not sure whether that will happen by Monday or Tuesday or a little later next week. But given that there is zero mystery in the near-term forecast for Houston (hot and sunny, rinse and repeat) it is nice to have at least something to bring you back to the website, dear reader.

In brief: Houston’s weather turns stable and predictable for the next week. Although some thunderstorm chances remain today, by and large we are moving to a mostly sunny, hot, and humid pattern through the holiday weekend. Expect fireworks at night, and fiery weather during the daytime.

A warmer pattern

As high pressure starts to build over the area, Houston should see its most sustained heat of the year over the next week or so. We have had a few days of 95-degree plus heat here or there this summer, but from now at least through the weekend we should consistently be in the mid- to upper 90s with very warm nights. We will see mostly sunny skies to go along with this heat, with only a smattering of rain chances. So basically, prepare for that rich Houston summer weather you know and love, because it now lies at hand.

Tuesday

As noted above, we can expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-90s for most of the Houston area away from the coast. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. I do think there is a decent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today as there remains a fair bit of moisture in the atmosphere. This is probably the kind of thing where perhaps 20 percent of the area sees rainfall, but there will be some pockets of fairly intense rain in those locations that do see rain. Winds will come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

High temperatures will range from the low-90s near the coast to upper-90s for inland areas during these two days, with partly to mostly sunny skies. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon hours, with peak heating. Nights will be partly cloudy and humid.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend should bring plenty of sunshine and heat. Specifically for the Fourth of July, rain chances are near zero with plenty of sunshine expected. It’s a good holiday for the beach, but with the Sun at its highest level in the sky for the year, you’ll quickly burn if you leave skin exposed for too long. For fireworks we have few weather concerns. It will be humid, of course, but it is always humid on the Fourth of July in Houston. The rest of the weekend will see continued temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Perhaps there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain by Sunday.

Next week

As high pressure eases off a bit, we probably will see a slight uptick in rain chances next week, as well as a slight moderation in daily high temperatures. But how high those rain chances rise, and how much the mercury falls, remains an open question.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area in the northeast Gulf as a potential area of development over the next few days. None of the models are getting too excited about this system, however. Regardless it is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on our weather here in Texas. Beyond this, the tropics appear to be quiet.