Eric Berger

In brief: In this post we tackle some of the questions we’ve received from readers today, who are understandably concerned about the potential for a hard freeze and icy streets in Houston this weekend.

We are now about three days away from an Arctic front descending into Houston. We still don’t know the finer details about what to expect from this very cold airmass, but they should begin to come into better focus over the next couple of days as we get access to higher resolution forecast modeling. However, we realize that readers have a lot of questions, so we’re going to do our best to tackle some of them this afternoon.

Will Houston see freezing rain?

This is really the most important question, and it is one we cannot quite answer yet. I’m highly confident that we will see moderate to significant accumulations of freezing rain along and north of Highway 105, beginning as early as Friday night. I would not advise travel to Dallas or Austin any time after Friday afternoon, as conditions could deteriorate pretty quickly after that time. For areas well north of Houston I think sleet and possibly snow are options as well. It will be a mess on roads.

Closer to the city of Houston we are going to stay a little warmer, a little longer. At this time I don’t expect freezing temperatures to reach Harris County until Saturday morning at the earliest, and possibly not until Saturday evening. It will then be a race to see when air temperatures freeze at the surface, and when the precipitation slows or stops on Saturday. At this time I think there is a reasonable chance of freezing rain (and therefore icy streets) along and north of Interstate 10 on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. We also cannot rule out impacts further south. But where the precise line between cold rain and freezing rain falls, I just can’t say right now. Accordingly, the metro area should be prepared for icy roads this weekend, starting on Saturday in Houston. We’ll get better details on where and when in the coming days.

Should we be concerned about a hard freeze?

Yes, I think so. At this time both Sunday and Monday mornings have a chance of producing a hard freeze in Houston, with temperatures dropping below 25 degrees. Again the most likely location for this will be along and north of Interstate 10, but we can’t rule out anywhere except for the immediate coast. When temperatures drop this low we start to worry about pipes bursting. Please note that at this time we do not expect the extreme cold the region saw in February 2021, with widespread temperatures in the teens. But precautions should be taken with exposed pipes when temperatures drop into the 20s. Should you drip your faucets? We tackled this question in a post about a year ago.

Will the power go out?

We are not experts about electricity, but there are some general things we can say.

There are two areas in which power can fail. The first is in power generation, that is the natural gas plants and wind turbines and other sources of electricity. When these sources shut down unexpectedly during the February 2021 hard freeze in Texas, it led widespread outages. The second area of failure is in power distribution. That is, the poles and wires that carry power from plants to your home. It was these distribution channels that failed during Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 (i.e. trees falling into power lines).

For this upcoming winter storm we are going to see a cold air mass descend into Texas, but it will not be nearly so cold as that which the state experienced in February 2021. ERCOT forecasts ample electricity supply through the coldest period, next Monday. We think, barring catastrophe, this will be the case.

That leaves power distribution, handled locally primarily by CenterPoint Energy. I reached out to the company earlier today to ask about their concerns and plans, but did not receive a substantive response. My concern is that we see ice accumulations on tree limbs (causing them to fall on power lines), or ice on power lines that causes them to snap. Generally I think conditions in the Houston metro area will not be bad enough to cause widespread power disruptions, but that is just a guess. Again, we’re not experts. It’s my hope that the distribution companies are taking this threat seriously.

I have a flight on …

Look, I hear you on airport concerns. My wife and daughter are returning to Houston early on Monday morning, so this is something we’re watching closely. My sense is that Friday should be fine for air travel, and probably much of the day Saturday as well (for Bush Intercontinental Airport this will depend on when freezing temperatures arrive). As for Saturday evening through Monday morning, well, I just don’t know. I expect normal operations when temperatures are above freezing, which probably will be at least some of the time on Sunday, and after mid-morning on Monday. But beyond that, we just don’t know.

Our next update will be published by 7 am CT on Wednesday.

In brief: It will be warm in Houston this week until it’s not. An Arctic front will arrive on Friday night and drive temperatures down to their coldest level of the season. We are tracking the dual threats of a hard freeze this weekend as well as the potential for freezing rain and icy roads. Buckle up y’all, because it is winter storm season!

Winter storm potential

The state of Texas faces the potential for a significant winter storm this week beginning Friday evening, and lasting into much of the weekend. This will be driven by an Arctic front surging into the southern United States, bringing the coldest air of the season down into Texas. This front will also bring a decent shot of lingering precipitation, and for the northern half of Texas this will mean a mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Expect significant mobility issues in the metro areas of Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin, and possibly San Antonio.

As for Houston, the outlook is less certain. We are going to get very cold air, and almost certainly a freeze by Saturday evening. But it is not clear whether the freezing temperatures will arrive before the showers end. I think it is highly likely that areas along and north of Highway 105 (which runs from Navasota to Conroe to Cleveland) will see freezing rain on Saturday or Saturday night. But while there is clearly the potential for freezing rain further south, in the Houston metro area, we cannot yet say so for sure.

What we can tell you with confidence this morning is that travel north and west of Houston, beginning Friday evening, will start to become hazardous. There is the potential for icy roads in Houston itself on Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. You also should begin to take precautions for a possible hard freeze, in which temperatures fall below 25 degrees. This is not a certainty, but it is a possibility for all but coastal areas.

Tuesday

If you prefer partly sunny skies and mild temperatures, then today is the day for you. There will be a brief window this afternoon when I think we’ll see a decent amount of sunshine, with temperatures rising into the mid- to upper 60s. Winds will be light, from the east. Lows tonight will be warmer than we’ve been experiencing, in the upper 50s.

Wednesday

A weak front will sag into the area on Wednesday and die, and this will bring us mostly cloudy skies and a healthy chance of widespread, light rain. I don’t expect serious accumulations, but many areas will likely pick up a few tenths of an inch of precipitation. Temperatures, otherwise, will be about 70 degrees with modestly humid air. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to about 60 degrees. As a result some fog will be possible early Thursday.

Thursday

This will be another mild day, with highs around 70 degrees, or perhaps a bit warmer, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a slight chance of showers. Expect another warm night, with lows only in the range of 60 degrees.

Friday

This will be our third cloudy, warm-ish day in a row, with highs likely in the low 70s. But by Friday evening the Arctic front will be dropping our way. This should support the development of some rain showers during the afternoon and overnight period. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 40s.

Saturday

This will be a cold and gray day, with a healthy chance of rainfall. Depending on how cold it is at various locations, but especially north of Interstate 10, we may start to see some freezing precipitation. I think for areas in Montgomery County and points north, air temperatures may reach freezing early on Saturday, so that’s why we have concerns about freezing rain. A more widespread freeze is likely in Houston and surrounding suburbs by Saturday afternoon or evening, and if the roads are wet they would freeze. Additionally, some light precipitation remains possible on Saturday night, and this would likely take the form of freezing rain.

The bottom line is that there is the potential for slick streets north of Houston on Friday night, and in the city itself beginning Saturday afternoon or evening. We will be watching this closely, of course, as the difference between rain and freezing rain is but a degree or two. Lows on Saturday night will probably drop into the mid- to upper-20s in Houston on Saturday night, but there remains a large dollop of uncertainty there.

Sunday

I think this will be partly sunny day, so I’m hopeful that air temperatures will climb above freezing area-wide by around noon, but I’m not confident this will be the case. It will be a cold day regardless, with highs likely in the 30s. Again we are going to have to monitor the potential for icy streets depending on how much moisture is left on roads, and whether there’s any additional light precipitation on Sunday (maybe a 10 or 20 percent chance). Lows on Sunday night will probably be similar to Saturday night, dropping into the 20s. But will it be low- mid- or upper-20s for Houston? Probably closer to the latter, but I’m not confident yet.

Monday

Temperatures should rebound a little bit by Monday, with mostly sunny skies, and reaching perhaps 40 degrees. This should end the threat of icy roads, but we cannot rule out impacts on Monday morning. Stay tuned.

Next week

There’s still some division among the various models, but most likely we will see a stretch of sunnier weather, with highs in the 40s and 50s, and lows at or above freezing. We’ll see.

In brief: Good morning. This is an update for winter-enjoyers. Although temperatures will moderate some this week, we are looking at a sharp incursion of colder air by Saturday, likely the coldest of the season. We also cannot rule out some freezing rain or sleet, although it’s too early to have confidence in such a forecast.

A mild winter … so far

Houston has recorded a handful of freezing temperatures this winter, including a mark of 32 degrees on Sunday morning. But the coldest our air has gotten just been barely below freezing, back on December 15 when the mercury reached 31 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. I say all of that to note that we expect our coldest airmass of the season to push into the region next weekend, and it is possible that widespread parts of Houston will dip into the 20s. We also cannot rule out freezing rain or a wintry mix. All of that to say, after a mild winter to date, things could turn a bit gnarly next weekend. More on what we know, and don’t, below.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the mid-30s this morning, so it’s chilly once again. However unlike Sunday most of our region is above freezing. We are going to warm up nicely today with mostly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-60s. Winds will be light, from the southeast this afternoon. Temperatures will only fall into the mid-40s overnight, with increasing cloud cover.

Tuesday

This will be a mild, partly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-60s. Winds may be a bit gusty, from the east. A weak front will pass into the area, and stall out near the coast. This will set the stage for scattered showers from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

This will be a gray day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the mid-60s. It will bring our region’s best chance of rain in awhile, with the overall likelihood of precipitation a little higher near the coast where there will be more moisture available. I expect most of the region will probably pick up on the order of 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with some higher isolated totals. All in all this won’t be too impactful, and let’s face it, our coastal areas (raises hand) are pretty desperate for some precipitation. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be warmer and mostly cloudy days, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees and lows in the 50s. It won’t feel particularly humid, with dewpoints in the 50s, but the air won’t exactly be dry either. Depending on the timing of the Arctic front mentioned above, temperatures could drop Friday night, or it could be another mild night. Some light showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday

If the front does not arrive on Friday night, it should do so by Saturday morning. Here’s what we know right now:

A massive amount of Arctic air is going to spill down into the Midwest and Central United States from Canada, bringing temperatures 30 degrees below normal. Some areas in Wisconsin and Illinois could see temperatures in the -10 degree range, or thereabouts. This air mass will modify as it moves south. and the real question for Texas is whether we see a direct shot of this Arctic air, or a less impactful ‘lobe’ that breaks off from the main body. For now I’m just not sure beyond saying it’s going to get quite cold.

How cold? I expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, dropping to the 40s by Sunday. In terms of lows, I expect a widespread freeze in much of Houston for Saturday and Sunday nights. But still to be determined is whether this a freeze of the variety we have seen to date (i.e. 30 to 32 degrees) or more impactful (mid-20s for much of the metro area). I’m just not sure at this point, but obviously we will be watching things closely all week.

Beyond this we cannot rule out the possible of freezing precipitation this weekend. A chance of showers will linger after the front (we expect mostly cloudy skies this weekend), and some of this precipitation could take the form of sleet of freezing rain depending on air temperatures. Snow seems unlikely, but we’re not ruling anything out at this point. Anyway, sleet, and especially freezing rain, would cause mobility impacts this weekend, and possibly into Monday morning. We don’t have any details yet, and we cannot predict with any confidence whether there will be a winter storm. But it’s not out of the question.

Next week

Temperatures will moderate some next week, but we are still probably looking at highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s or so. Hello winter!

In brief: In today’s post we review the region’s average temperature over the first two weeks of the month. We also take a look at a sharp front that may bring a light freeze into the area by Sunday morning, as well as rain chances for later next week.

January is nearly half over

Through the first two weeks of January the average temperature was 62.6 degrees in Houston, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. If you’re wondering, that’s 9.5 degrees above the normal level this time of year, and more typical of mid-November. It will be interesting to see where we end up given that we have a couple of days below normal this weekend before somewhat warmer conditions later next week. For what it’s worth, some parts of Texas has been even warmer than this, relative to typical January conditions. Some parts of north Texas have been 12 to 15 degrees above normal for the first two weeks of this month.

Thursday

It feels like a normal January outside this morning, with temperatures falling to about 40 degrees (the usual lower spots, such as Conroe, have fallen into the mid-30s). The good news is that the strong-ish winds from Wednesday afternoon have died down overnight, so there’s not too much of a wind chill about. We’ll see moderate northerly winds throughout the day. Sunny skies will help us warm to about 60 degrees, or just below, later this afternoon. We are going to have a clear and cool night, with lows in the mid-40s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday

With a returning southerly flow temperatures on Friday will push into the lower 70s for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Southwesterly winds may turn a bit gusty, up to 20 mph maybe. A front will arrive to change that, but I think it is unlikely to do so until after sunset on Friday. This will largely be a dry frontal passage, but there may be enough moisture closer to the coast to squeeze out a few showers. I’d only put chances at 10 or 20 percent, and they will pass quickly as the front sweeps through. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to see plenty of sunshine and cooler air this weekend. Highs on Saturday will likely top out in the mid-50s for most areas, and we could see fairly blustery winds from the north (perhaps gusting to 20 mph or a bit higher). If you have outdoor activities planned keep this in mind, as the wind will definitely add some chill to the air. Lows on Saturday night will bottom out with clear skies and lighter winds. A light freeze is possible in the region, perhaps including urban Houston although I certainly wouldn’t bank on that. Matt will have a better estimate of the freeze line in tomorrow’s post. Highs on Sunday will again be in the upper 50s, although with less wind it should feel a bit warmer. Lows on Sunday night will reach about 40 degrees, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

If you’re attending a parade on Monday for M.L.K. Day you can expect fine, mostly sunny weather with highs in the 60s. After this we should see more clouds next week. A weak front is likely to push in Monday night or Tuesday, possibly bringing some rain chances. But then we’re going to see warmer conditions, with highs in the 60s and 70s for the rest of the week. The presence of a coastal low pressure system is likely to bring increased rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, although this will depend on how far the low progresses inland. But for coastal areas (i.e. south of Interstate 10) that have been really dry in December and January, for now this provides a hopeful signal for some rain. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, we’ll have to see.