Eric Berger

After a stunning Sunday, we’ll now see the return of some clouds today, and as early as tonight some healthy rain chances. Most of this week looks pretty gray, although there’s a chance of sunshine toward the Friday or Saturday period. Unfortunately, the forecast from Thursday on is fairly uncertain at this point.

Monday

Skies remain somewhat clear this morning for parts of Houston, and we’ll see at least partly sunny skies for most of today, as highs warm into the mid-60s across Houston. However, change will be on the way as the high pressure system overhead moves away, and winds begin to return from the east and southeast. With this returning moisture, a few scattered showers will be possible near the coast this afternoon and early evening.

Rodeo forecast

Every weekday for the next three weeks, we’re going to offer Rodeo outlooks for people going to the concert. (Tonight, I’ll be among them, as Mrs. Space City Weather is a big Kasey Musgraves fan.) We’ll see temperatures of about 60 degrees at 6pm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and 10mph easterly winds. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re probably around 10 percent for central Houston. After the show, temperatures will still be in the upper 50s, but the chance of scattered showers will be better, probably closer to 30 percent. Any rain should be light.

Tuesday

This looks like a wet and gray day. Highs will get into the mid- to upper-60s, and the combination of warmer air, low pressure, and ample moisture should lead to on- and off-again (mostly) light to moderate rain showers. All told, accumulations for most should be well under one-half inch, but a some areas may see a bit more. We also can’t rule out a few pockets of hail. The healthy rain chances should persist into Tuesday night, when lows for most won’t fall below 60.

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As high pressure has scooted east of the area, low pressure has returned, and along with it plenty of moisture that will fall as rain the next few days. Rain chances will remain above 50 percent through Saturday, before a front arrives to bring us some much nicer weather—we still anticipate an outstanding second half of the weekend.

Thursday

Rains developed offshore late Wednesday, and have moved into coastal areas this morning. So far amounts have been more than manageable, with about one-quarter inch the maximum amount. But this surge of low-level moisture and low pressure will nonetheless make for a wet and gray day, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Most of the area likely will not see more than one-quarter to one-half inch of rain. With the southerly flow, temperatures Thursday night will not fall much as on-and-off mostly light to moderate showers continue.

Friday

Friday will be warmer, with cloudy skies, and highs in the 70s. With more moisture moving in Friday, we can expect more come-and-go rain showers. Again, there should be no real concerns with accumulations, as this will be just another gray, wet, albeit warmer day in Houston. The greater rain accumulations—one inch or more—should occur well to the north and northeast of the region. Lows Friday night may not fall below 70 along the coast, and probably will only drop into the upper 60s for the city.

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A cold front pushed through the region Tuesday night, and this should give us a brief bit of drier air and sunshine today before clouds and intermittent light rain return for the rest of the week. The next nice day should come Sunday before rain chances return on—you guessed it—Monday.

Wednesday

It’s chilly this morning, with lows in the mid-40s, and cloudy skies. However, as drier air moves in from the west we’ll see some clearing skies and this afternoon should be pretty nice with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-60s. This should last about through this evening as high pressure exits to the east, and low pressure returns. This will lead to an influx of moisture, clouds and rising rain chances tonight.

Thursday

As the image above shows, moisture will return rapidly, with drier air Wednesday giving way to moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across the region, but for most accumulations should be a few tenths of an inch of rain, or less. Highs will be around 60 under leaden skies.

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After a stretch of intermittently sunny weather, with mostly rain-free days, Houston now returns to a more gloomy pattern. Several readers have asked why this winter has been so wet and gray, and the reason is generally due to the recent formation of a weak El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This pattern generally favors a wetter winter, and that’s precisely what we’re going to get for the rest of February, at least. (El Niño is not expected to continue into the summer, so it’s unlikely to affect the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season).

Tuesday

Today will be especially wet and gray, with near 100 percent rain chances for Houston. Until around sunset, bands of light to moderate rain will pulse into the region from the Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level storm system moves through the area. While conditions for heavier rain are better to the east and northeast of Houston (parts of Arkansas could see in excess of 3 inches of rain), for our region we expect most areas to receive under 0.5 inch today. Still, it will be cloudy, and cold, with highs unlikely to reach 60 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will probably fall to around 50.

Wednesday

This has the potential to be a nicer day. Sometime early Wednesday, a cold front associated with Tuesday’s rain showers will push through Houston. This will be a relatively weak front, but it should bring some drier air, and therefore rain chances for the daytime on Wednesday are fairly low. We may also see some sunshine during the afternoon and evening hours as highs rise into the low 60s.

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