Eric Berger

Houston last officially recorded a 100-degree temperature on July 29, 2017—hitting 100 degrees right on the nose. This was, in fact, the only 100-degree day during all of last year. Perhaps we will get that lucky again this year with a paucity of very hot days, but some of the higher resolution models indicate the mercury will get to the century mark later this week, perhaps by Friday or Saturday. If this occurs, it should not come as too great of a surprise, as the average first date of Houston’s first 100-degree day is July 24th during the calendar year.

Typically, Houston records about five 100-degree days in a given year, although inland areas (further away from the Gulf waters in the 80s) typically record more, and areas south of Interstate 10 fewer.

Tuesday

Now we come to the actual forecast. Which is pretty easy. Expect sunny and hot conditions, with highs in the upper 90s. Overnight lows will only fall slightly below 80 degrees. The Saharan dust that was so prominent on Monday should begin to fade a bit.

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We’ve discussed the wet start to the month of July in Houston, and this has had the dual effect of keeping our lawns green as well as holding temperatures down a degree or so below normal for most of the area. Most evidence suggests the second half of the month will be considerably warmer and drier, so let’s enjoy the rain chances while they last.

Thursday

With high pressure kept at bay, and moisture levels pretty high, the region will probably see more widespread showers and thunderstorms today than we saw Wednesday. Probably about half of Houston will see rain, with accumulations of a few tenths of an inch. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon should limit high temperatures in the low 90s.

Friday and Saturday

These two days have the potential for more showers, but rain chances are probably only about 30 percent each day, as conditions won’t be quite as favorable for rain. As a result I think we can expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to possibly mid-90s, and a few showers popping up during the day. Any rain is likely to be brief.

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Tuesday offered a preview for what we can expect the rest of the work week in Houston—some sunshine, some clouds, and some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Where the heaviest storms set up, downpours will occur, but we don’t expect to see the longer-lived showers that affected Houston last week around the July 4th holiday.

Wednesday

Partly sunny skies, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances will be best on the eastern half of the city, where conditions are slightly more favorable for storms to develop. Still, there’s probably only about a 20 to 30 percent chance you get wet today.

Thursday and Friday

The story is similar to end the work week, with highs in the low 90s, a mix of sunshine and clouds, and scattered showers across the area. Again, there’s nothing we need to be too concerned about, but you probably should be prepared for the possibility of brief, heavy showers.

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