Rains ending for Sunday, but moderate rains return Monday before this mess clears

After steady, light to moderate rain this morning and early afternoon across Houston, showers have ebbed across the region as we go toward evening. Fortunately today only brought an additional 0.5 to 2 inches for pretty much everyone, which was manageable even for the coastal areas hard hit on Saturday.

It seems likely we’ll remain mostly dry this evening, but there’s one more round of rainfall coming as low pressure lingers along the coast on Monday. Fortunately this event doesn’t look particularly extreme for Houston, with 1 to 2 inches of rain, maximum, likely falling between late Sunday night and late morning or early afternoon on Monday. So while your commute into the office may be soggy on Monday morning, I wouldn’t look for any significant flooding problems.

NOAA rainfall accumulation for the period from Sunday evening through Monday evening. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Sunday evening through Monday evening. (Weather Bell)

 

After the rains end Monday, look for a cool night down around 50 degrees, and then quite a pleasant day on Tuesday, with highs in the low 70s. Our next cold front remains on track for late Wednesday or so, and it will be a really strong one. I’ll have full details in Monday morning’s update.

Posted at 4:45pm CT on Sunday by Eric

More rain on the way for flooded coastal regions of Houston

Good morning. The greater Houston region experienced very heavy rains on Saturday, particularly along the coast. With 7.68 inches, officially, Galveston recorded its single wettest day during any winter month, on record. Just inland in Texas City conditions were more grave still, with as many as 11 inches of rain falling. Parts of Galveston Island, Tiki Island, and La Marque all experienced significant flooding, and a Red Cross shelter was established in League City at Bay Harbour UMC, 3459 Deke Slayton Highway, for affected residents.

After a relatively quiet Saturday night, storms began moving into the Houston region a couple of hours before sunrise on Sunday, setting the stage for another wet morning. Due to lower pressures offshore, moist Gulf air will continue to flow inland at the surface, and at the same time in the higher levels of the atmosphere there is a pronounced flow of moist air from the west. The net effect of this is a water vapor “highway” flowing into Texas from the southwest, up through the eastern half of Texas and along the coast.

Behold, the water vapor highway in this enhanced satellite infrared imagery. (NOAA)
Behold, the water vapor highway in this enhanced satellite infrared imagery. (NOAA)

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Flash flood warning for some coastal areas as heavy rains continue

Grim, gray weather has persisted across the Houston metro area on Saturday, but by far the heaviest rains have developed along the coast, where as much as 10 inches of rain have fallen in the last 24 hours. The following map shows estimated satellite rainfall accumulations through the middle of Saturday afternoon:

Rain accumulation during the 24 hours preceding Saturday afternoon. (NOAA)
Rain accumulation during the 24 hours preceding Saturday afternoon. (NOAA)

 

Officially, at of 4:15pm CT, the city of Galveston has recorded 6.14 inches of rain on Saturday, and when the city reaches 6.31 inches it will surpass Dec. 17, 1995, as the wettest December day ever recorded on the island.

Rest of today

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire area through Sunday evening, but as we’ve seen the heaviest rains have set up along the coastal counties, that’s where the biggest concern lies. Accordingly a flash flood warning is in effect through 5:45pm CT on Saturday for northwestern Galveston, and northeastern Brazoria counties. Grounds there are now fully saturated.

Area of flash flood warning in effect until 5:45pm CT on Saturday. (National Weather Service)
Area of flash flood warning in effect until 5:45pm CT on Saturday. (National Weather Service)

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Rains beginning to fall, and a wet 72 hours lie ahead for Houston

And so it begins … as of the early afternoon hours we’re beginning to see scattered light to moderate rain showers moving into the southern and southeastern parts of the Houston metro area, primarily along the coast. This marks the beginning of about 72 hours in which we’re going to see the region’s wettest period since early this summer.

Matt covered the broad dynamics of the coming rains in a comprehensive post this morning, and at this point not much has changed. I’ve looked over the 12z model guidance and the range of solutions is still pretty broad—from widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches across much of Houston to upwards of 9 inches for wide swaths of the region.

As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)
As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)

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