Sunday, 8:40pm CT—As darkness descends upon Houston, another very wet night has already begun for the region. So far this evening, the heaviest rains have fallen across the western part of the region, including the Katy area. As much as 6.5 inches of rain have fallen near Cinco Ranch from 5pm to 8pm. A flash flood emergency is continuing for pretty much the entire Houston area tonight.
Tropical Storm Harvey, at sunset over Houston. Sunday. (NOAA)
Addicks and Barker
These rains have occurred near, and over the massive Addicks and Barker reservoirs on the west side of the city. Earlier today, the US Army Corps of Engineers said it would have to make controlled releases into Buffalo Bayou (which already is beyond flood stage) in order to prevent a more catastrophic release later next week. “This flood event will exceed the 2016 Tax Day Flood elevations,” said Col. Lars Zetterstrom, Galveston District commander.
It seems probable that some homes near Clay Road and Eldridge, and in the vicinity of the Westpark Toll Road and Highway 99 will see water remain in homes for up to two months. That is not a misprint.
Today, there has been a lot of chatter on social media about the potential for the remnants of Harvey to move offshore into the Gulf of Mexico by around Monday, whereupon it might strengthen into a hurricane again and make a second landfall over Houston. This is obviously a scary scenario, but frankly it’s not one we’re losing too much sleep about here. The main threat for Houston remains heavy rains and inland flooding. But let’s discuss this anyway, because we’ve had a lot of questions regarding it.
For readers who been with us a few days, you’ll recall that we’ve been discussing the “Euro special” scenario since Thursday. The idea is that a drifting Harvey would wander southeast this weekend, and move back over the Gulf of Mexico. That seems increasingly likely to occur, although it’s far from locked in. Even with the European model, which has most consistently held to this solution, only about two-thirds of the ensemble members have the storm offshore on Tuesday.
European ensemble members for Harvey’s location on Tuesday evening. (Weather Bell)
While the center may move offshore for a day or two, the fact remains that Harvey no longer has an inner core, and what remains of it will deteriorate further while it is over land Sunday and at least part of Monday. This, along with its proximity to land, should limit intensification. In the official National Hurricane Center forecast released Sunday afternoon, hurricane scientists predicted that it may attain 45 mph winds offshore, but was not likely to strengthen further.
I’ve been offline this morning because I had to deal with some serious personal and property matters. We are living through the same disaster as the rest of you, and my family is near the epicenter in the Clear Lake area. I think we’re in a good place now—well, as good of a place as one can be right now—and so I’d like to share some perspective. For this afternoon, at least, Matt will continue to handle immediate forecasting duties.
Harvey and rainfall
Tropical Storms and hurricanes, along with earthquakes, tornadoes, and other events are called natural disasters for a reason. They are, truly, disasters. And that is precisely what has unfolded across the Houston metro area during the last 12 to 18 hours.
24-hour rainfall totals from Saturday morning-Sunday morning. (Harris County Flood Control District)
Last night’s rains flooded many of the area bayous, and some areas, such as Clear Creek in southeastern Houston, have blown through 500-year flood levels. What is so maddening about these rains is that we don’t know for sure when they are going to stop. So if I may, let me offer some advice.
Well, it’s sure been a night in Houston. And as mad as it’s been, it seems we are just not done. I feel almost guilty for writing about this, as I so desperately wish to report some good news for a change. Because it sure feels like we ought to be done with the rain. At least for a little while.
To put this into perspective, let’s review. First, around sunset, Band 1 stormed through Houston from west to east, topping off our bayous. Then it stalled over east Houston. Next came Band 2, which as it moved in from the west intensified about the time it reached the western city limits. Then, having made some unholy alliance with Band 1, the two merged more or less over downtown Houston. This created what meteorologists properly call a seething nexus of hate (and rain).
But no, we’re not done. Whereas it was once a thin line of showers, Band 3 is fattening up as it moves up the Highway 59 corridor toward Houston. Here’s the state of play as of 1:45am CT on Sunday.
Houston’s crazy night on the radar continues. (Space City Weather/Intellicast)
I can’t really say whether Band 3 will strengthen further as it rotates east-northeast, but it seems already plenty healthy to bring another 3 to 5 inches of rain as it crosses Houston. And that assumes it keeps moving, rather than merging with the previous to rain bands to form a trinity of calamity. If that happens, God help us all.
Speaking of that, for the first time ever, the National Weather Service just issued what it is calling a “Flash Flood Emergency for Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding.” And not to sound too flippant, but that sounds really bad. You should probably heed their advice—WHICH IS SIMPLY DO NOT TRAVEL. DO NOT IMPEDE WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS.
Is that clear enough?
(National Weather Service)
My wife, bless her, just asked me if Band 3 was it for the night. I wanted nothing more than to fall in her arms and tell her yes, this was it. By God, yes. Let’s go to bed and forget this ever happened. It had to be it, surely.
Well, by looking at the radar I’m sort of hopeful this is it. But some of the very same high-resolution models that indicated earlier Saturday that Houston was going to get slobberknocked tonight suggest that Band 3 isn’t it—that our rains will continue well into Sunday morning.
I dearly, dearly, dearly hope those models are wrong. Houston’s future (and our collective sanity) more or less depend upon that now.
End note: If you home has flooded, then we are truly sorry. No words from us can begin to address that problem. But we can say that millions of people have been through this before, and it can be done. Some good, basic advice, can be found here. And although this handbook from FEMA is dated, it provides detailed steps to take care of yourself, your family, and your property in the aftermath of a flooding event.
