Eric Berger

January’s site sponsor: Westbury Christian School

A new year, and a new month, mean a new sponsor. And for January I’m pleased to announce that Westbury Christian School will sponsor Space City Weather.

(Westbury Christian School)

Here is a bit more about the school:

Westbury Christian School is a fully accredited, college preparatory school serving approximately 500 students from age 3 through 12th grade each year.
Conveniently located near major employment centers south and west of downtown, WCS is committed to excellence in academics, student activities, and spiritual development and offers competitively priced tuition to allow working families the opportunity to give their students a unique private education taught from a biblical perspective. WCS actively works to maintain diversity in its student enrollment, which reflects the populace of the neighborhood in which it is located, serving families from a variety of religious faiths, ethnicities and socioeconomic backgrounds.
The challenging academic program at WCS – including the open-enrollment Dr. David M. Lacey Advanced Placement (AP) program offering 17 courses across core disciplines – is designed to ensure college-readiness, while expanded classroom space and extracurricular offerings in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) encourage students to pursue careers in Houston’s key industries.
The Wildcat athletic program – which fields boys and girls middle school, junior varsity and varsity squads in a variety of team and individual sports – helps WCS students strengthen their bodies and build character while learning the importance of teamwork.
With instruction and extracurricular opportunities in band, chorus, ballet, theatre and the visual arts, the Fine Arts department at WCS helps students express their unique creative talents, individually and collectively, on the WCS stage and through appearances at recognized local and state competitions.
The campus ministry program ensures WCS is a welcoming place for all who are seeking spiritual growth, and local service projects and out-of-town mission trips allow students to show God’s love to those in need of a helping hand.
In its first 40+ years, WCS has helped thousands of hard-working students – including more than 1,300 alumni – prepare for success in every aspect of their personal and professional lives.

Their support allows us to continue to make the best possible forecasts we can make. Thank you for considering them for all any education needs. By doing so, you’ll be supporting this site!

For more information on sponsoring Space City Weather, please click here.

Houston Marathon forecast at 10 days out: Don’t pack gloves

Oh, my fellow runners, if you want to be depressed then take a look at the GFS ensembles that came out this afternoon. I’ve annotated the forecast, which takes into accout about 50 different runs of the GFS model based upon observed conditions this morning.

GFS ensemble model forecast. (Weather Bell/Space City Weather)

What’s depressing is that the range of lows forecast by the GFS model for Sunday morning, January 15th, runs from about 63 to 73 degrees, and the corresponding dewpoints are nearly as high, meaning we’d be looking at a humid race day too. This is about the worst-case scenario, barring fire-and-brimstone-type thunderstorms with tornadoes thrown in.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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You wanted some winter in Houston? You got it.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally fallen into the upper 40s to low 50s across Houston this morning, and this is actually quite warm compared to what is ahead, as it will get downright cold this weekend, with a real winter feel.

Today

We should see highs around 60 degrees today as winds return from the south. Skies will probably remain overcast most of the day, and there’s a chance of some light, misty rain later this afternoon and evening, especially along the coast. Winds will shift back out of the north tonight, marking the beginning of a really cold three-day period for the region as cold air moving in will drive lows on Friday morning into the low 40s.

Friday

Cold. Gray. Gloomy. Possibly some light rain. All this and more describes conditions on Friday, when highs will struggle to rise out of the low 40s. Oh, and there will be a stiff northerly breeze that will add an additional burst of cold. You wanted winter in Houston? You got it.

Temperatures on Friday night will fall likely fall just below freezing in the city of Houston, and likely into the upper 20s north of the city. While that would be cold enough to produce some frozen precipitation, it looks like any rain chances will end by Friday evening, which means the region shouldn’t see sleet or any other type of wintry mix to complicate driving conditions.

Estimated freeze line for Saturday morning. (National Weather Service/Space City Weather)

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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Houston Marathon forecast at 11 days: Still trending warm

Good afternoon. Here’s another update on weather for the Houston Marathon, and unfortunately the outlook at this time still favors warm conditions for the morning of January 15.

The GFS model

The North American model is downright warm. According its ensemble output, the GFS model forecasts a 0 percent chance of low temperatures 40 degrees or below on Sunday morning, which would be ideal for long-distance running. Conversely, the model predicts a 60 to 70 percent chance of a high temperature of 70 degrees or above that day. This still leave some wiggle room, but the outlook is not good. Essentially we’d be looking at start-time temperatures in the 60-65 degree range with high dewpoints.

The European model

The European solution is slightly more optimistic. The graphic below is busy, but instructive, so let’s take a moment to explain it. The bottom panel shows “minimum” temperature forecasts for a given six hour period. I’ve indicated the period for Sunday morning’s low temperature, and the range of 50 ensemble outcomes peg it anywhere from 30 degrees to 70 degrees.

However the highlighted green area shows the most likely range of temperatures that morning, from the upper 40s to the upper 60s (the model average is 59 degrees). Similarly the model’s most confident range of high temperatures on Sunday afternoon runs from 60 to 75 degrees.

15-day European model ensemble output. (Weather Bell)

My take on the European model is that it’s forecasting about a 50 percent chance of significantly warmer than normal temperatures, 60 degrees or higher at race time. There’s probably a 25 percent chance of lows from 55 to 60 degrees, and a 25 percent chance of lows below 55 degrees (fingers crossed!).

The only positive thing I can say is this: We’re still nearly 11 days away from marathon day. That is a long time in weather forecasting, and predictions this far out are simply not locked in, even when the models seem pretty consistent. While a warm race day is certainly most likely, it is far from certain. But damn, I have to say the prospect of running a race in the 60s and moderate to high humidity is very, very far from enticing.

Tomorrow I’ll start looking at rain chances as well.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

Posted at 4:20pm CT on Wednesday by Eric