It’s not even June 1 and the Atlantic basin has already recorded two tropical systems in 2016—Hurricane Alex back in January, and Tropical Storm Bonnie last weekend. Some readers might be concerned that this augurs a particularly busy hurricane season, which officially begins Tuesday, but that is not necessarily the case.
That’s because there is little to no correlation between seasons with at least one tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or a hurricane) prior to June 1 in a calendar year, and that season’s overall activity. The following chart, with data since 1950, was recently shared by The Weather Channel’s Michael Lowry.