Eric Berger

As anticipated, widespread showers and thunderstorms have moved into the Houston area this morning, particularly affecting the coastal regions. Due to the storms, the southern half of the metro area is under a flash flood watch through 1 pm.

Monday

As an upper-level disturbance moves in from the southwest, it is combining with high atmospheric moisture levels to continue to bring a healthy chance of rain into early afternoon hours. However, the large cluster of storms is moving slowly to the east, and therefore should clear the area by some time this afternoon.

For the most part, given our relatively dry ground, rainfall amounts should be quite manageable—1 to 3 inches along the coast, with lesser amounts for inland areas today. We’ll have to be concerned about the possibility of some locally heavier rainfall, but so far these storms have been manageable. Highs should be around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

Rain chances drop off Monday night and Tuesday morning, but then a late-season cool front will move through the region sometime during the day. This front will bring enough instability to produce some scattered showers and potentially thunderstorms (very slight chance of severe weather) later on Tuesday. Rain accumulations will certainly be less than today, and areas that see rain probably will only see a tenth of an inch, or two.

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After mostly dry weather for the last six weeks, Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic later today and Monday. Three factors will help drive the potential for heavy rain during the next 36 hours: high atmospheric moisture content, a stalled front, and an upper-level system moving into the region from the southwest.

We don’t have too many concerns about weather today—as any showers and thunderstorms that develop probably won’t be too organized, and any strong storms should move through the region for the most part. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s with a decent chance of rain. Accumulations will likely be less than 1 inch for most areas.

The bigger potential for storms will come later tonight and Monday, as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region. For now it appears the best rain chances will be closer to the coast, but I think most of the area has a good chance of seeing 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday night. Because the atmosphere is so moist, we’re likely going to see higher localized amounts where the heaviest storms develop on Monday, but it’s just not possible to predict where those bullseyes will occur. Some flash flooding is therefore possible.

The bottom line is we’ll need to pay close attention to weather conditions tonight and on Monday. Lesser rain chances remain Tuesday, whereas from Wednesday on the weather looks great. We’ll stay on top of things for you.

Posted at 10:15am CT on Sunday by Eric

There will be severe weather across Oklahoma, and likely parts of northern Texas, during the next few days, with the possibility of tornadoes, hail, and more. However the Houston region is unlikely to see more than rain and thunderstorms through the weekend, as we’re going to be far enough south to avoid the main energy from these systems.

Thursday and Friday

We’re going to end the week warm and windy. Southerly winds will bring atmospheric moisture into the area, so the region should see partly cloudy days, and there will be the chance for some scattered showers—but most people are unlikely to see any rain. Highs will nudge up into the upper 80s, and overnight lows will be summer-like, in the mid-70s.

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The National Weather posted a pretty astounding graphic this morning. Although temperatures this May have been cooler than normal for most of Houston—except for areas immediately along the coast—the region is still off to a sizzling start for temperatures this year because of warmth during the prior four months. For every major weather location in the area, the average temperature this year is above normal. Galveston remains nearly 2 degrees above normal.

Today

After a warm-ish morning, temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-80s today under partly to mostly sunny skies. The most notable feature will be onshore winds returning with feeling, perhaps gusting to 20 mph or above. This moisture will likely set the stage for rain showers later this week.

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