There will be severe weather across Oklahoma, and likely parts of northern Texas, during the next few days, with the possibility of tornadoes, hail, and more. However the Houston region is unlikely to see more than rain and thunderstorms through the weekend, as we’re going to be far enough south to avoid the main energy from these systems.
Thursday and Friday
We’re going to end the week warm and windy. Southerly winds will bring atmospheric moisture into the area, so the region should see partly cloudy days, and there will be the chance for some scattered showers—but most people are unlikely to see any rain. Highs will nudge up into the upper 80s, and overnight lows will be summer-like, in the mid-70s.
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Saturday and Sunday
The upper-level low pressure system bringing storms across the central United States will eventually push a weak cold front toward the Houston area, and this will lead to a pretty healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning later on Saturday and most of Sunday. This is a bit of a tricky one, because most of the model guidance is suggesting relatively low accumulations during the weekend, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain. But the atmosphere is going to be warm and moist enough to support heavy rain, so I’m not entirely ruling out the possibility of heavy rain and some localized flooding. The front should knock highs into the lower 80s on Sunday, with lows around 70 degrees.
The warm, humid weather will continue during the first half of next week, along with some decent rain chances. It looks like Tuesday could see some thunderstorms re-develop, and bring another round of rain, perhaps a half inch or more, although the details are far from clear.
It does seem probable now that a reasonably robust cool front (for late May) will push through later on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week), bringing some sunny skies and cooler nighttime temperatures. If nothing else, we can probably look forward to some sunny weather and drier air.
Posted at 6:45am CT on Thursday by Eric