Eric Berger

Much of Houston has experienced some heavy rain this afternoon, with storms producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. These rains have scuttled outdoor activities and led to some street flooding downtown, however they are largely proving manageable for the area’s drainage systems. The main hazard is lightning, so please do not venture outdoors unprotected during intense lightning events.

 

It seems most likely that these storms will wane this evening by or shortly after sunset, with the loss of daytime heating. Forecast models show another complex of storms developing over north Texas tonight, but it appears as though these will weaken as they approach the Houston metro area early Monday.

Later on Monday we may see some scattered thunderstorm development, but nothing like today. And then, by Tuesday, we’re going to be into a summer-like pattern where high pressure clamps down on rain chances, and increases highs into the mid-90s.

Posted at 3:45pm CT on Sunday by Eric Berger

Happy Saturday, everyone. It looks as though we’re going to remain in a summer-like pattern this weekend.

 

Early this morning saw some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop near the coast and move inland, primarily to the east of Houston. They’re now burning themselves out near Wallisville and Liberty. After this we should see a break during the rest of the morning. However with temperatures likely rising into the upper 80s to 90 degrees this afternoon I expect the seabreeze to generate some showers again today like Friday. I expect these storms to be somewhat scattered, but like on Friday could be intense where they develop. The most likely time for storms to develop is probably from around 3pm CT to shortly before sunset.

We’ll probably see more of the same on Sunday and Monday, before high pressure builds over the middle of next week and probably shuts off rain chances for awhile. It’s possible we’ll be in the middle-90s by Wednesday or Thursday, and starting to remember what summer in Houston really feels like.

Good morning. Houston had another day on Wednesday when the official high temperature at Bush Intercontinental reached 89 degrees, but didn’t tick all the way over to 90. Now only 1897 (June 15) and 1970 (June 12) have gone deeper into the calendar year without reaching this mark. This run has occurred both because of extensive cloud cover in May and early June, as well as wet soils. Houston now hasn’t had a 90-degree day since October 15th.

TODAY and FRIDAY

I think the next couple of days will be a lot like the middle of the week, with the exception that we might see a little bit better rain coverage this afternoon. I expect highs will get near to 90 degrees, or finally break through that threshold. Temperatures will depend on the extent to which cloud and widely scattered rain showers develop over the city this afternoon in response to the seabreeze.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY

Higher moisture levels and a weaker capping inversion should nudge rain chances up to 30 to 40 percent this weekend, but we shouldn’t be too concerned about any kind of severe weather. If rain does develop I’d expect it to be the standard, summer-time rain of fairly short-lived showers during the afternoon and evening hours.

See full post

Well, we were wrong. Houston did not, in fact, reach 90 degrees on Tuesday. The mercury climbed to 89 degrees and stopped. We’re a week into summer, and this year is now tied for the third-latest 90-degree day in a calendar year on record for the city.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

But it has to come today, right? Probably. Skies should be mostly sunny. However if a few stray showers pop up over the northern part of the city, near the official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport, another sub-90 degree day is not out of the question. In any case, the next three days are likely to be a lot like Tuesday—warm, but not too warm. A few showers are possible, especially to the southwest of the Houston metro area.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY

Forecast models continue to suggest muggy air flowing off the Gulf of Mexico will nudge moisture levels higher this weekend. However with high pressure in the region I just don’t see a lot of mechanisms for lifting that moisture into the atmosphere, so it’s not clear how widespread showers are likely to be. In any case, we’re going to see highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, most likely, with the best chance of rain in the afternoon. With moisture levels highest on Sunday, that’s probably our most likely time for rain.

See full post