Eric Berger

Scattered storms possible for a few days high pressure clamps down on Houston

Some fairly heavy storms rolled into Houston on Tuesday, and as boundaries collided during the afternoon hours the region picked up 0.0 to 2.5 inches of rain with some heavy thunderstorms. After two weeks of mostly dry weather the rain and some of its outflows offered a brief reprieve from summer. This morning, with a weak front offshore, it feels almost pleasant out there for late June. But it won’t last.

Rain totals for Tuesday. (National Weather Service)
Rain totals for Tuesday. (National Weather Service)

Today

The main area of instability remains offshore this morning, which means we’re unlikely to see any rain before some daytime heating. However we could see development of some scattered showers this afternoon with the sea breeze. Rain chances appear to be highest for coastal counties and areas to the east of downtown Houston. Further inland, for Montgomery county and areas west and northwest of the city I’d rate rain chances as very low (although not non-existent.) Highs in the low- to mid-90s.

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Storms developing across Houston, should persist into the early evening

As the sea breeze and a weak front collide over Houston we’re starting to see widespread development of showers and thunderstorms over the metro area. It appears that storms between 2:30 and 4:30pm CT will probably be heaviest for the central and northern parts of Harris County.

A flood advisory has been issued for the following areas until 4:30pm CT:

Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)

These storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential to flood some low-lying streets. However we do not expect these storms to produce widespread flooding. Strong wind gusts and lightning are also a threat. These storms will probably die out for good by, or shortly before sunset.

Rain likely today, but real heat looms in the distance

Good morning. The second half of June has been pretty dry for Houston, so all things considered the region could use some rain as we head into the warmest 10 weeks of summer. Fortunately much of the region should see just that today.

Tuesday

A weak front will sag into Houston today, meeting up with air moistened by the Gulf of Mexico. This should lead to some fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing before or by around noon, and sliding southward toward the coast. The most likely time for rain is between noon and sunset. I’m not expecting anything too extreme in terms of rainfall totals, and am hopeful half or more of Houston will pick up 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rainfall. Highs should climb into the low 90s.

HRRR model forecast for rain at 3pm CT on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast for radar conditions at 3pm CT on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

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Wetter weather possible before a hot July 4th weekend

After a mostly hot and dry weekend (some areas, particularly west of Houston weren’t entirely dry, of course) we’re going to see a pattern change this week, with some better rain chances returning. And don’t begrudge the rain—we’ll need it for what’s ahead.

TODAY

As high pressure to the northeast of Houston continues to move off we should see some slightly better rain chances today, especially when temperatures near their peak levels in the low 90s this afternoon. Some of these showers could be locally heavy, although probably brief. For parts of Houston that don’t see rain (likely a majority of the city) conditions will be pretty hot, with the heat index rising into the low 100s.

TUESDAY

On Tuesday most of the forecast models show a frontal boundary pushing into the Houston region. Now this isn’t going to bring significantly cooler air, but it will bring some instability that should lead to fairly widespread showers, and the potential for some locally heavy rain that might briefly flood some streets. But I’m not anticipating any widespread flooding problems because these storms should develop and then weaken pretty quickly. Highs will depend upon the amount of rain coverage. For most areas accumulations should be well under 1.0 inch.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Weather Bell)

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