Eric Berger

Houston faces a significant rain threat later today and during the overnight hours, and the recent forecast model trends are concerning. I think there are two main threats we must consider: the potential for severe weather, and, separately, very heavy rains.

SEVERE STORMS

Much of the Houston region falls into the “slight” risk of severe weather for tonight from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. I believe this may undersell the risk a little bit.

One of the variables forecasters look at when trying to gauge the possibility of severe weather is helicity, which is essentially a measurement of rotation in the upward drafts of a storm system. The greater this value, the higher the threat of tornadoes and damaging winds.

For example, the latest run of the NAM model shows some very high helicity values over much of the northern and northeastern part of the Houston metro area for late tonight. Note that values above 400 allow for the possibility of tornado formation.

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Good morning. After another day or so of quiet weather we’re going to have to face another period of potentially heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday.

TODAY

Houston will see warm temperatures on Thursday, but how warm depends up the extent of cloud cover. If we’re mostly sunny temperatures could rise into the upper 80s, to near 90 degrees. If there are some clouds, or a scattered shower near where you live, temperatures will probably remain in the mid-80s. In either case, it will be a warm, almost-summer-like day.

FRIDAY

After a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms developing to the north of Houston on Thursday night and Friday morning, we’ll see better rain chances later in the day. It is possible we’ll see some thunderstorms move in from the west later on Friday, during the evening hours. For now the west-northwest part of the metro area lies under a “slight” chance of severe weather (damaging winds, hail and possibly a tornado) on Friday and Friday night.

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As noted earlier, a nasty line of severe thunderstorms moved through Houston this morning, bringing especially unpleasant conditions north of Interstate 10, with downed trees and power lines (causing one death). Winds gusted up to about 60 mph across much of the region. At least two tornado warnings were issued although neither has been confirmed as of yet. By 6:20am CT about 125,000 CenterPoint customers were without power, mainly in northern Harris and southern Montgomery counties. The only comfort is that because the storms moved quickly, they only had time to drop 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across the region.

TODAY

With the main line of storms moving into the Gulf of Mexico and east of the Houston metro area by about 7am, for today the main event has ended. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible in the wake of this system later this morning and afternoon, but it will not be nearly so organized or severe. In short, despite the inclement weather earlier, it should be safe to resume normal activities this morning across the Houston metro area. Highs today will be in the mid-80s.

THURSDAY

We should see a bit of a break from storms, but not from heat. Look for highs in the upper 80s. With enough Sun we might come close to hitting 90 degrees for the first time in 2016, although I hope (and don’t think) that will happen. Hello, summer?

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As the southern edge of a major storm system moves approaches Houston the western half of the metro area is under severe thunderstorm warning this morning until 5:30am CT.

In addition to heavy rain (about 0.5 to 1 inch with this line of storms) this means there may be strong winds, hail and possibly even a tornado over a northern part of the city near Spring. I expect the thunderstorm warning area to expand eastward as we get closer to sunrise.

One saving grace from this system is that it continues to steadily move eastward and should move out of the eastern half of the Houston region by 7 or 8 am CT. After the main line of storms moves through we could see some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. But as for the potential for very heavy rain and severe weather, this is the main event.

Posted at 4:45am CT Wednesday