Our sweltering December in perspective, and my official Christmas forecast

I’ll get to the forecast for Christmas week and weekend in a minute, but first I wanted to put some of this month’s temperatures into perspective.

DECEMBER

Houston has had a warm December, but how warm? The answer is not that much warmer than normal.  So far this month has had an average temperature of 58.0 degrees, and that’s going to probably end up a few degrees higher by the end of this week given what’s ahead.

Nevertheless, as the chart below shows, even an average temperature of 60 degrees would remain well beneath the all-time record for December (set way back in 1889), and it’s far from a certainty that this December will even finish within the city of Houston’s top 10 warmest Decembers.

(SpaceCityWeather.com)
Note 2015 data are through Saturday. (SpaceCityWeather.com)

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Splendid weather through Saturday, heavy rain possible early next week

It’s chilly across Houston this morning, with lows ranging from the upper 30s for areas well inland to about 50 degrees on the coast. This cooler pattern, with highs only rising into the low 60s and splendid sunny days, will remain in place through Saturday.

SUNDAY

Onshore flow resumes from the Gulf of Mexico, increasing clouds, raising high temperatures to about 70 degrees and bringing back a slight chance of rain.

MONDAY-TUESDAY

In addition to warmer temperatures and more humid conditions, an upper-level disturbance on Monday will bring a good chance of rain to the area, perhaps quite a bit of rain, on Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast from NOAA for rain next Monday and Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain. (Weather Bell)
Forecast from NOAA for rain next Monday and Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain. (Weather Bell)

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Storms clearing, cooler weather moving in

Good morning. A line of storms has moved through the region during the overnight hours, bringing generally about one-half inch of rain to most places. It is now ending from west to east.

Status of showers at 6:50 a.m. CT. (Intellicast)
Status of showers at 6:50 a.m. CT. (Intellicast)

 

Northerly winds are behind the front, which will bring cooler air and gradually decreasing clouds through the day. Highs should be in the upper 60s.

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Rain possible tonight, stunning weather for the rest of the week

It’s in the low- to mid-50s across most of Houston this morning, but with relative humidity near 100 percent and southeast winds the chill won’t last for long.

TODAY

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s today, with mostly sunny skies turning mostly cloudy by the end of the day. As a cold front approaches and passes through the region tonight rain is possible, most likely between sunset today and sunrise on Wednesday. While some areas may see as much as 1 inch of rain, I’d expect most of the region to see only a tenth of an inch, or two. Significant storms seem unlikely.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

Hello, gorgeous.

The front will usher in four days of cool temperatures, with highs in the 60s, lows around 40, and mostly sunny skies. Should be wonderful.

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