Two more hot days before a major change in Houston, partly clear skies for Perseids tonight

Houston has now had four consecutive days of 100-degree or warmer weather, and I’m afraid we’re going to have to suffer from the heat for a little bit longer before some relief arrives. But more moderate (for August) weather is indeed coming, and it should be here by the weekend.

Today and Friday

For most of the Houston area—with the exception of far eastern portions of the region—high pressure should remain more or less dominant through Friday. This means we’ll see the possibility of a few stray afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but the main story will remain heat, and lots of it. We’ll have a decent chance to hit 100 degrees both days, and low temperatures will remain pretty brutal as well, likely falling only to about 80 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect.

Saturday

By Saturday we’ll see a transition of sorts. High pressure should weaken, and a cool front will move into northern Texas. Meanwhile, off to the east of Houston, a potent low pressure system will be bringing lots of rain to Louisiana. Houston should see some energy from the front (not particularly cool air, unfortunately) and moisture from the Louisiana system. They should combine to produce highs in the mid-90s, with a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain.

Sunday through Wednesday

By Sunday we should be in the midst of a full-blown pattern change, with highs most days in the low 90s, mostly cloudy weather and good daily rain chances. At this time it doesn’t look like the area will see any extreme rainfall, although there almost certainly will be some thunderstorms. Hopefully we just get about 1 to 3 inches across most of the region, taking the edge off of our burgeoning drought conditions.

Higher rain accumulations are more likely on the east side of Houston. (Weather Bell)
Higher rain accumulations are more likely on the east side of Houston. (Weather Bell)

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Houston to remain in the grip of excessive heat for a bit longer

The greater Houston region saw a rare “excessive heat warning” on Tuesday as low-level moisture stayed put during the afternoon hours, allowing heat indices to briefly exceed 113 degrees. Such conditions will remain for a couple of more days before clouds and increasing rain chances finally bring some relief to the area.

(National Weather Service)
(National Weather Service)

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Houston has reached peak summer—it’s all downhill from here

We’ve previously discussed why summer peaks so late along the Texas coast, a phenomenon known as seasonal lag. But now we’re finally here. For Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, today is climatologically the warmest day of the year. For Hobby Airport, it’s August 10. For College Station it’s August 11, and for Galveston its August 13.

Peak summer in the United States, by location. (Brian Brettschneider)
Peak summer in the United States, by location. (Brian Brettschneider)

 

Peak summer is here, and that means it can finally go. Unfortunately, it’s going to go slowly. (Thanks to Brian Brettschneider for the data).

Today through Saturday

Houston hit 100 degrees on Monday, marking the fourth time this year we’ve hit the century mark. Unfortunately this pattern of very hot days with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees is not going to change this week. We’re going to see hot weather, partly to mostly sunny days, with some scattered showers mainly during the afternoon hours. Summer in Houston is to be survived.

Accordingly, a heat advisory is in effect for today, and will likely continue so through Saturday.

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Houston to have a typical August week, but after that showers may come

Houston will continue to face very warm, summer-like conditions this week, which is understandable since we’re in the middle of August. However we’ll at least see some moderate rain chances to break the heat up—and possibly better rain chances by early next week.

Today

A stalled front well north of the metro area, in the vicinity of Texarkana, may produce some storms moving toward Houston from the northeast later today, but it’s not clear they will get all the way to Houston. Areas from Cleveland to Liberty to Beaumont are the most likely to see any rain as highs rise to near 100 degrees.  Accordingly, a heat advisory is in effect for all of the Houston area.

Tuesday through Thursday

We’re going to see typical August-like weather for most of the work week, with highs of nearly 100 degrees, lots of sunshine, and the potential for some afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. Low temperatures will remain unpleasant, likely falling to only around 80 degrees. More heat advisories are likely on these days.

Friday and Saturday

A cool front will march across part of Texas, likely stalling out over north-north central Texas on Saturday or so.

This temperature anomaly map for Sunday shows cooler weather moving into Texas, but alas not Houston. (Weather Bell)
This temperature anomaly map for Sunday shows cooler weather moving into Texas, but alas not Houston. (Weather Bell)

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