Front arrives, rain ending this afternoon, more winter-like this week

As of 9 a.m. the cool front had made it through Houston, and the strongest storms were moving quickly to the east. Temperatures have fallen about 20 degrees in the wake of the front’s passage, so adjust your thermostat accordingly.

As expected, rain accumulations last night and this morning have brought the greatest amounts north of Houston. (HCOEM)
As expected, rain accumulations last night and this morning have brought the greatest amounts north of Houston. (HCOEM)

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Storms tonight, early Sunday, then cooler

Here’s an update on what to expect later today, tonight and Sunday

TODAY

The radar is quiet this morning across Houston and it’s likely to stay that way until early this afternoon. Later on storms may develop to the southwest of the city, in the Matagorda Bay area, and move north-northeast into Houston. Confidence is low in what may happen, but some forecast models show enough instability for some strong storms with this system during the afternoon and early evening hours before about 9 p.m, with some localized heavy rain. I can’t rule it out. Temperatures will remain muggy throughout the day.

TONIGHT

The main storm system will approach from central Texas later tonight in the form of a major squall line. I’d expect these storms to move into the western parts of Houston by around midnight, and affect the region through sunrise. Fortunately for Houston, while there is strong lift associated with the front, the atmosphere isn’t going to be all that unstable. This should limit the potential for very strong storms in the Houston metro area.

Houston should miss the worst of the storm activity, NOAA forecasts. (Storm Prediction Center)
Houston should miss the worst of the storm activity, NOAA forecasts. (Storm Prediction Center)

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We’ll endure near-record heat and storms before a cold front Sunday

It’s another foggy morning and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 a.m.

TODAY-FRIDAY

Goodbye winter, hello early fall. Houston will see two days of near record heat with highs around 80 degrees, with sultry lows in the upper 60s. These overnight temperatures are nearly 25 degrees warmer than normal for mid-December. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

SATURDAY

Saturday will start out warm and muggy, with humidities near 100 percent. Heaven help you if you’re running a half marathon that morning because it’s going to be absolutely miserable for long-distance runs.

Rain chances will be relatively low during the day, but increase a bit during the afternoon before spiking after sunset as a storm system approaches and clashes with the Gulf of Mexico moisture. The entire region is under a “slight” chance of severe weather, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, with damaging winds the primary threat.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday and Saturday night.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday and Saturday night.

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Very warm through Friday, storms possible on Saturday, and then cooler

Houston remains under a dense fog advisory until 9 a.m. this morning.

TODAY-FRIDAY

The region will continue to see a warming trend, with highs in the mid-70s today, and possibly record high temperatures around 80 degrees on Thursday and Friday. Lows will climb from the upper 50s Thursday morning to nearly 70 degrees by Saturday morning. Skies will be mostly Sunny.

Mele Kalikimaka, everyone.

SATURDAY

Moisture that has piled up during the previous three days will rise upward due to an advancing front. This will bring about a decent chance of rain during the day, and an even better chance on Saturday evening and during the overnight hours. Due to the unstable nature of the atmosphere some severe thunderstorms will be possible, with possibly even some isolated tornadoes. Check the forecast before heading out to any evening or nighttime plans.

In terms of accumulations, I still think 1 to 2 inches is a good bet for rainfall.

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