Houston’s opportunity to be the proverbial center of the universe has once again arrived, and we can continue to provide mostly good news: No major weather worries will impact the area this weekend. Instead, we have a few minor issues of consequence to monitor.
Today
The forecast for the end of this week has evolved quite a bit from where it looked earlier this week. A cold front passed through the region Thursday, and we’re seeing a much cooler start to the day. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 40s north to mid 50s south.
Temperatures are starting the day quite a bit cooler than 24 hours ago, with mostly 50s and some upper 40s. (NWS)
Other than plentiful low clouds and perhaps some drizzle, it should be a quiet day today. Expect temperatures to peak near 60°. If you’re heading out to Super Bowl Live at Discovery Green or any of the myriad of activities going on around town this evening, it looks good, but you will probably want a light jacket.
If you’re heading to any of the festivities around town tonight, you’ll probably need a jacket (unless you’re from New England, then this will probably still feel warm).
After a chaotic week of weather, Houston will face gradually face somewhat more benign conditions as we head through the weekend. First, we have to get through the potential for showers & storms today and possibly Saturday. That will be followed by quite a breezy day on Sunday.
Today & Saturday
Fog this morning is pretty dense over most of the region, and dense fog advisories are posted basically along and south of Highway 105. Use a lot of caution out there this morning.
The fog will lift later this morning, so we should see a little sunshine. Clouds sneak back in this afternoon. The big question then becomes where showers or storms develop. I want to show you two pieces of data that we’re looking at. This is a forecast radar for 6 PM this evening. The HRRR model is on the left, and a model run by Texas Tech is on the right. Click to enlarge.
Weather models are out of sync this evening, leading to a somewhat lower confidence forecast. (Weather Bell/Texas Tech)
The HRRR (left) indicates the warm front in the Gulf may get all the way to I-10, helping to fire up thunderstorms this evening. The WRF (right) has the front falling just short and keeps most storms near the coast or over the Gulf. Given the uncertainty, the SPC has the eastern part of the region in a “marginal” risk for severe thunderstorms.
Best severe weather risk should stay east of the area today, but it will be a somewhat close call. (NWS SPC)
My feeling is that the HRRR may be overdoing things a bit, but it’s a close call. I am apt to prefer this SPC map and say the best chance for storms remains south and east of Houston later today. We will update you if that changes, but definitely have an umbrella handy today to be safe.
On Saturday, it actually looks fairly quiet. With a strong system developing to our northwest, we could see a few showers or storms, but any legitimate severe weather risk looks to stay well east of the Houston area, in Louisiana. Temps will peak in the mid 70s both days, with lows in the low 60s tonight.
Just a brief update for you for the late afternoon and evening.
We have good news: The heaviest rain this afternoon organized a bit too late to hit the areas hardest hit this morning. Instead, heavy rain is now sliding off to the east of Houston.
Narrow band of heavy rain has moved east of Baytown and extends south to about League City as of 3:30 PM. (College of DuPage)
Most rain will exit east of the city for the evening commute. You will want to continue to watch for areas of high water around the area. The Flood Warning remains in effect for the western Harris, northern Fort Bend, and northeast Wharton Counties until 4:15 PM. Additional minor flooding is possible along Little Cypress Creek, but serious flooding in northern Harris County is not expected.
For tonight and tomorrow morning, I do expect showers to re-organize, but with the front now off to the east of most of Houston, the heavy rainfall threat will shift toward Beaumont or (more likely) Lake Charles. In Houston, just expect some showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, but no severe weather and likely no serious flooding issues.
HRRR model forecast shows the idea of rain redeveloping tonight, with the heaviest off to the east of Houston. (Weather Bell)
By tomorrow, this will all be history. We should see gradual clearing and a nice break from rain.
This winter has been one warm but wobbly roller coaster ride. We’ve had both the coldest weather in a few years and the most persistent warm weather in a number of years. In fact, Wednesday and Thursday represent the first time since 2002 and only the 16th time on record that Houston has officially recorded two consecutive days of 80° or warmer in January. We’ve hit 80° a lot of times in January, but usually not for more than a day. After last weekend’s cold and now with this warm weather, some are probably wondering if winter is over. Doubtful. Read on.
Today and Saturday
We have a few showers around this morning, especially north of Houston.
Radar as of 6:30 AM shows scattered showers lifting north of Houston. (GRLevel3)
As the day goes on, don’t be shocked if you see a shower or sprinkle or two around in your travels.
We will continue with a very warm pattern the next few days. Though it probably won’t hit 80 again today and tomorrow, it will come close. We’ll see mid to upper 70s today and mid 70s tomorrow. Both days will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies. The slight chance of a stray shower or some sprinkles continues Saturday also. I do expect ongoing fog near the coast to be pretty persistent through the period.
For the Texans up in Foxborough on Saturday evening, weather shouldn’t be a huge factor, though it will be quite cold. Kickoff temps will be in the mid 20s, falling into the low 20s. Winds should thankfully be light.
