Matt Lanza

Houston’s weather pendulum swings back

The pendulum of weather this winter has been fierce and rather erratic at times. While not as extreme as what we saw in January, another strong shift of the pendulum is underway, back in the warmer direction.

Today & Weekend

We have an interesting variety of temperatures across the region this morning.

Temperatures are being impacted by low clouds and range from the 30s and 40s north to the 50s and low 60s south and along the Gulf. (NOAA/NWS)

 

We have a band of low clouds oozing up from South Texas this morning, and that’s keeping places south of Houston mild. However, if you go north of the metro area, clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the 40s and a few 30s in ideally sheltered spots.

Low clouds should give way to a bit of sun, before new clouds arrive later today. There is a very slight chance of a shower or some light sprinkles, primarily south and west of Houston this afternoon.

The majority of the weekend should be problem-free. We will see clouds around, interspersed with sunshine. An isolated shower or a little light rain is possible but probably nothing you need to plan around.

Temps are going to surge again however. While it shouldn’t be quite as warm as we saw earlier this week, there is a good chance we see that Saturday and perhaps Sunday reach the 80 degree mark. As Eric pointed out earlier in the week, Houston is going to at least threaten the record of seventeen 80+ days in meteorological winter (December 1-February 28). We are at 14 now, and if Saturday and Sunday both hit 80°, we’ll be at 16 days. That will give us over half of February left to tie or break the record of 17 days. What’s winter?

Official forecast high temperatures for Saturday show record highs being tested all across Texas and Oklahoma. Houston’s record high on Saturday is 82°, set back in 1999. (Weather Bell)

 

No other issues this weekend, but watch for the potential of fog in spots, especially near the coast by Sunday.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Darrell Lee’s The Gravitational Leap)

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Houston’s weather no worry for Super Bowl weekend

Houston’s opportunity to be the proverbial center of the universe has once again arrived, and we can continue to provide mostly good news: No major weather worries will impact the area this weekend. Instead, we have a few minor issues of consequence to monitor.

Today

The forecast for the end of this week has evolved quite a bit from where it looked earlier this week. A cold front passed through the region Thursday, and we’re seeing a much cooler start to the day. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Temperatures are starting the day quite a bit cooler than 24 hours ago, with mostly 50s and some upper 40s. (NWS)

 

Other than plentiful low clouds and perhaps some drizzle, it should be a quiet day today. Expect temperatures to peak near 60°. If you’re heading out to Super Bowl Live at Discovery Green or any of the myriad of activities going on around town this evening, it looks good, but you will probably want a light jacket.

If you’re heading to any of the festivities around town tonight, you’ll probably need a jacket (unless you’re from New England, then this will probably still feel warm).

 

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Darrell Lee’s The Gravitational Leap)

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A few showers before a breezy Sunday

After a chaotic week of weather, Houston will face gradually face somewhat more benign conditions as we head through the weekend. First, we have to get through the potential for showers & storms today and possibly Saturday. That will be followed by quite a breezy day on Sunday.

Today & Saturday

Fog this morning is pretty dense over most of the region, and dense fog advisories are posted basically along and south of Highway 105. Use a lot of caution out there this morning.

The fog will lift later this morning, so we should see a little sunshine. Clouds sneak back in this afternoon. The big question then becomes where showers or storms develop. I want to show you two pieces of data that we’re looking at. This is a forecast radar for 6 PM this evening. The HRRR model is on the left, and a model run by Texas Tech is on the right. Click to enlarge.

Weather models are out of sync this evening, leading to a somewhat lower confidence forecast. (Weather Bell/Texas Tech)

 

The HRRR (left) indicates the warm front in the Gulf may get all the way to I-10, helping to fire up thunderstorms this evening. The WRF (right) has the front falling just short and keeps most storms near the coast or over the Gulf. Given the uncertainty, the SPC has the eastern part of the region in a “marginal” risk for severe thunderstorms.

Best severe weather risk should stay east of the area today, but it will be a somewhat close call. (NWS SPC)

 

My feeling is that the HRRR may be overdoing things a bit, but it’s a close call. I am apt to prefer this SPC map and say the best chance for storms remains south and east of Houston later today. We will update you if that changes, but definitely have an umbrella handy today to be safe.

On Saturday, it actually looks fairly quiet. With a strong system developing to our northwest, we could see a few showers or storms, but any legitimate severe weather risk looks to stay well east of the Houston area, in Louisiana. Temps will peak in the mid 70s both days, with lows in the low 60s tonight.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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Worst of Houston’s rain over

Just a brief update for you for the late afternoon and evening.

We have good news: The heaviest rain this afternoon organized a bit too late to hit the areas hardest hit this morning. Instead, heavy rain is now sliding off to the east of Houston.

Narrow band of heavy rain has moved east of Baytown and extends south to about League City as of 3:30 PM. (College of DuPage)

 

Most rain will exit east of the city for the evening commute. You will want to continue to watch for areas of high water around the area. The Flood Warning remains in effect for the western Harris, northern Fort Bend, and northeast Wharton Counties until 4:15 PM. Additional minor flooding is possible along Little Cypress Creek, but serious flooding in northern Harris County is not expected.

For tonight and tomorrow morning, I do expect showers to re-organize, but with the front now off to the east of most of Houston, the heavy rainfall threat will shift toward Beaumont or (more likely) Lake Charles. In Houston, just expect some showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, but no severe weather and likely no serious flooding issues.

HRRR model forecast shows the idea of rain redeveloping tonight, with the heaviest off to the east of Houston. (Weather Bell)

 

By tomorrow, this will all be history. We should see gradual clearing and a nice break from rain.

Posted at 3:35 PM by Matt

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)