Matt Lanza

Cold front: It’s happening

Quick note: If you missed Eric’s post yesterday, we’re excited to be selling t-shirts so you can rep the site around Houston. We’re also accepting monthly sponsorships for 2017. Thank you to those who have pitched in. We’re so very grateful for your continued support and loyal readership!

On to the forecast.

It’s Cold Front Day! Today is also apparently Mickey Mouse Day. And Push-button Phone Day.  So why not make it Cold Front Day too? Who’s with me? Anyway, I digress. Let’s talk about how this unfolds.

Today & Saturday

Starting this morning, no serious issues in our area, but it is warm. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s to near 70 in spots, with mid 70s at the coast! But look north and west. The front is moving through the DFW Metroplex as of 6:30 AM.

Temperatures as of 6:30 AM show the front moving into the DFW Metroplex. (NOAA)
Temperatures as of 6:30 AM show the front moving into the DFW Metroplex. (NOAA)

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Houston’s weather in a word: Quiet

First off, a very happy Veterans Day to those who have served and defended our great nation. We owe you our deepest gratitude for your service and sacrifices. Thank you!

On to our weather. If you were looking for a nice, quiet autumnal weekend, I think you’re going to find one the next few days.

Today through Sunday

The biggest forecast challenge I see is cloud cover.

Water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low spinning over SW Texas and New Mexico and high clouds streaming over East Texas. (College of DuPage)
Water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low spinning over SW Texas and New Mexico and high clouds streaming over East Texas. (College of DuPage)

 

An upper low well to our west and ample jet stream energy off the Pacific are helping to keep a high deck of clouds in the forecast the next couple days. If you look at weather model data, this upper low is forecast to basically shear itself apart and open up before being ejected off to the east later this weekend.

Approximate location of upper level disturbance through Sunday night/Monday AM. (Weather Bell)
Approximate location of upper level disturbance through Sunday night/Monday AM. (Weather Bell)

 

What does it mean for you? Expect intervals of clouds and sunny breaks today and tomorrow. We should probably see more of the same Sunday also, though we could see gradually decreasing clouds. Temperatures will vary based on clouds. If we see a lot of clouds, expect daytime highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and nighttime lows in the upper 50s. If we get a fair amount of breaks in the clouds, we’ll do low to mid 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for lows. Basically, it looks like a fair weather fall weekend here in Southeast Texas, with no serious rain risk.

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Savor all the daylight you can this weekend

A friendly reminder from us at Space City Weather: This weekend marks the end of Daylight Saving Time. Importantly, we get an extra hour of sleep Saturday night. Hopefully you take full advantage of mostly nice weather Saturday to enjoy that extra hour.

Let the time honored tradition of complaining about it getting dark early begin! (NWS Houston)
Let the time honored tradition of complaining about it getting dark early begin! (NWS Houston)

Today

Today will mark the transition to a kinder, gentler air mass for early November. A weak cold front, though a front nonetheless, will sag south through the region today. It could very well set off a few showers or thunderstorms as it drops south, though nothing widespread is expected. Temperatures will peak in the mid 80s this afternoon. You may notice slightly lower humidity by evening, particularly if you live northeast of Houston.

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More on Houston’s cooler future

Houston’s got some nicer weather coming for a few days this weekend before we get a little more unsettled next week. I want to go more in depth on the potential for a pattern change starting in mid-November, so there’s a pretty detailed section on that below. Let’s jump in.

Rest of Today

We’re starting off warm again this morning across the region. Galveston is likely to at least tie their record for warmest morning low for this date (74° in 2000).

Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)
Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)

Expect a mild afternoon with high temps in the low 80s. Scattered showers on Monday focused west of I-45, and then yesterday, they focused mainly between Houston and Lake Charles. Today? There is an organized line of weakening thunderstorms southeast of Dallas this morning, but I don’t quite think those will make it here. Best chance for some steadier rain though would be northwest of a Conroe to Hempstead line this morning. The air over Southeast Texas is pretty stable, so while there will likely be some isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, especially north or west of the city. I’m guessing most of us will stay dry, but your best bet today is to carry an umbrella as an insurance policy, knowing there’s probably a good chance you won’t need it.

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