Matt Lanza

Alright, I’ve been covering Eric most of this week, and given the stability in the forecast, it’s been a little challenging to discuss much, which has actually kept the posts pretty short and sweet! We’ll do that again today, but I want to focus more on next week.

Today through Sunday

More of the same: Sun, heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, and very minimal rain chances. Highs near 100 or in the upper-90s. Lows near 80 each day.

I suppose Sunday may see a slightly better chance for a stray shower along the coast, but even that looks mediocre at best right now.

Monday & Tuesday

With the holiday weekend perhaps being four days for many of you, there will be obvious interest in Monday and Tuesday’s forecast. What we know is that rain chances will not be zero on those days. However, the higher rain chances next week look to hold off until Wednesday through Friday. Our shower chances will be about 10 to 20 percent on Monday and 30 percent on Tuesday, hopefully winding down in time for area fireworks displays. I don’t think anyone needs to alter plans for the Fourth, but it’s probably a good idea to think about a rain option, just to be extra safe, if only for a short period of time.

Rest of next week

As we move beyond Independence Day, it looks as though we will ease into more of a classic midsummer pattern for Houston. It won’t be cool, but it will be noticeably less hot. We should see fewer and less regular heat advisories or warnings. Expect highs more into the mid-90s, near average for this time of year. Morning lows will be mostly in the 70s to perhaps near 80 at times. But each day will carry at least a 20 to 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms to locally cool things off. Rain chances should build into the end of the week, nearing 50 percent on Thursday and Friday before declining once more.

We logged a pair of 99s yesterday at both Bush and Hobby, with maximum heat index values of 107 to 110 degrees. Temperatures have been hitting the forecast mark at night, with lows of 81° yesterday at both sites, but we continue to miss daytime highs by at least 1 to 3 degrees. Still, the heat index or “feels like” temperature has been verifying close to forecast. It’s been one of the more interesting heat waves in terms of forecast accuracy that I can recall. And it continues.

Today through Saturday

The forecast is pretty unchanged through Saturday. As we’ve been discussing all week, it looks pretty stable each day, with highs near 100 and lows near 80 each morning. Rain chances remain near zero. Hopefully we can maintain something more at heat advisory criteria than excessive heat warning criteria, but that will depend on the exact nuance of each day. Continue to practice heat safety.

Sunday

We continue to look for our transition out of this pattern to begin on Sunday. While showers and storms aren’t exactly likely, there’s at least a chance slightly greater than zero. Highs will likely maintain near 100°, with lows near 80 in the morning.

Monday

We see an even more significant collapse of the dome of high pressure over Texas off to the south and east on Monday, meaning it weakens and pushes away.

This will open up the door to a “weakness” in the atmosphere that will allow for more moisture and a better chance of showers and storms by the afternoon. These probably won’t be the same type of storms we saw last week, where they rip out of the north and hammer us with severe weather. Expect something more traditional for Houston summers, with hit and miss afternoon downpours and a fair bit of lightning.

Rest of next week

For July 4th festivities, there will definitely be a chance of showers or storms during the afternoon. I would have a backup plan in place indoors, just to be safe right now. I would absolutely not cancel anything though. We’ll offer more color on that outlook tomorrow and Friday. More shower and storm chances will continue into mid and late week. We may even add some tropical moisture to the mix at some point to enhance showers, but that is very much TBD.

We do continue to see signs that high pressure in the upper atmosphere may again try to exert itself over Texas after next weekend, but whether that means super hot and dry again or just generically hot with fewer rain chances remains to be seen. Next week’s cooler change looks more temporary than permanent right now.

Since there’s not a whole lot new to discuss today, I spent a little time looking at statistics from Hobby Airport last night. So far this June, the airport has registered a heat index of 110° or hotter for 18 hours. That may not sound like much, but consider that no other year in the 2000s has come close to this many hours of extreme heat in Houston, at least at Hobby. Not even the infamous 2011 summer. The most recent challenge to this year is in 1998, when we managed 32 hours of 110° or higher heat index values, almost all in July and August. 1997 saw 19 hours. 1982 saw about 22 hours. The infamous summer of 1980 had a heat index of 110° or higher for 16 hours in June and then another 14 hours in July. We will see if the coming weeks will have us challenge 1980 and 1998 for supremacy, but regardless, it’s just dang hot.

Today through Friday

Surprise! It’s going to be hot. High temperatures will be near 100 and lows will be near 80 degrees through the end of the week. For today, we have a heat advisory in effect, not an excessive heat warning — for now. That may change through the day. But at least it signals the chance that it may feel just a tiny, miniscule, itty bitty, small bit less oppressive. Either way, we encourage maximum heat precautions today through Friday with continued persistent heat and humidity.

For those curious, rain chances the rest of this week remain at roughly zero point zero percent.

Weekend

We’ll maintain persistence through Saturday, with more hot and dry weather. Sunday should, should mark the beginning of the transition out of this pattern. Rain chances may increase to a whopping 5 or 10 percent Sunday, but more importantly, the upper air pattern will finally start to break down, signaling changes next week.

Heat break next week

There is good news and bad news beyond the weekend. The good news is that the heat should reduce to more average levels for early July next week. For those that have forgotten, that means highs in the low to mid 90s each day, lows in the upper-70s, and heat index values in the slightly less extreme 100 to 105° range.

Additionally, it means rain chances return to the area. Yes, this could mean a chance of showers or storms on Monday and Tuesday afternoons for the holiday, but it should at least mean some relief. We’ll hone in on specifics later this week.

The bad news? There are signs in our modeling that the heat over Texas may try to make a comeback after next week. But that’s still a long way off.

If you missed it on Sunday, we put together a summary of what has been a pretty wild June in terms of severe weather in the Houston area. Not everyone has participated, but many have. We discussed why and what has made forecasting these storms so challenging. This week? None of that. At least not through Friday we don’t think. It just looks torrid.

Once again, it will be important for all of us to practice maximum heat safety this week. Whatever index you use, it will feel terribly hot all week, with heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees and wet bulb globe temperatures in the “extreme” level for the human body. While the forecast temperatures will not be overly impressive, the combo of temperature and humidity remains abnormally potent for our area, the next level of heat.

Today through Thursday

High temperatures will scorch the next few days, generally in the 100 to 102 range. Overnight lows will be near 80. Humidity levels will be awful. Rain chances look to be near zero through Thursday. Yada yada yada.

Friday and Saturday

More of the same. I just wanted to break up the post a little.

Sunday and early next week: Relief?

So to the question you’re all wondering: When does this end? It appears more likely that by Sunday or Monday, the potent, relentless ridge over Texas and/or Mexico will finally break down. You can follow this on an upper level forecast map. Notice how you can clearly see the “dome” of high pressure over Texas. That finally begins to collapse on Sunday and Monday of the weekend/next week, and that should hopefully yield cooler temperatures and rain chances. Unless you have Fourth of July plans, in which case, of course.

But, we really need a period of cooler weather and hopefully some rain chances. We certainly hope the holiday is rain-free, but we’ll see.

Tropics

Nothing new or exciting to discuss. We’ve seen some noise on the operational modeling way out in fantasyland, much like we did earlier this month. But there is no real support for anything. Check our companion site, The Eyewall for a full tropical update for the Atlantic if you’re interested in more! And just a reminder, if a storm were to be a concern for Houston, we would still include all the relevant info here at Space City Weather. We’d love for you to read The Eyewall regularly, but you won’t be missing Houston-relevant info!