Matt Lanza

One front is through the region, and now we wait for the big dog front later in the weekend. First, we do have some wind to get through today.

Today

With the front to our east now, changes will be afoot today. We barely dropped below 70 (!) overnight, but we just crept into the 60s as I write this, and by the time you read it, it may be in the 50s. It will be a chilly one by mid to late morning. We’ll hold near or just above 50 for the majority of the afternoon. But it will be the wind that’s the real story today. Wind Advisories are posted, and we can expect wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph in Houston, and into the 40s over the bays and along the coast.

Winds will subside toward sunset, with a quieter night ahead. Look for lows tonight in the 30s in much of the area away from the coast. A light freeze will be possible north of the city and in some of the more sheltered areas south, west, or east as well. Temps should not be any colder than we’ve already seen this winter.

Saturday

A fine day. Highs should be around 60 or in the lower-60s. A great day to finish your winterization preparations. And go Texans!

User’s guide to the Arctic cold

With our two posts per day now, we are aiming to update with each main cycle of model data that we are able to see. So there should be fewer big changes with each post. I’m going to change up this post a bit to sort of hit on the key points rather than give a chronological forecast. Here’s what we know.

Key messages

• Front hits Sunday morning ushering in cold (most areas well above freezing)
• Temps in the 30s to near 40 with an east or northeast 10 to 15 mph wind for the Houston Marathon.
• Light precipitation likely Monday and light icing on area roads is possible, especially north and west of Houston. Tuesday AM commute may be impacted in spots.
• Temperatures may stay at or below freezing much of the time Monday morning through Wednesday morning.
• Hard freeze temperatures (less than 25 degrees) would likely last 8 to 10 hours at a time in Houston on Monday night and Tuesday night.
• Wind chills will be as cold as 10 degrees or lower on Tuesday and in the teens much of Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
• We warm well above freezing on Wednesday, with highs near 60 by Thursday.

When does it start?

We need to think of this in two ways: When does it get generically cold and when do we see freezing temperatures? The answer to “when does it get generically cold” is coming into focus. The front looks to hit probably Sunday right around sunrise now. Temperatures in the 40s will probably drop back into the 30s as the front hits, with a light freeze possible north of about The Woodlands on Sunday morning.

The rest of Sunday would be cold but dry with temps in the 30s. A widespread light to moderate freeze is possible Sunday night into Monday morning. A more consequential freeze is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, with temperatures in the 20s probably everywhere but at the coast, struggling to get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. And then the coldest on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thankfully, we should bounce back well into the 40s on Wednesday afternoon.

This obviously brings up a couple additional questions.

How bad is the Houston Marathon going to be?

The answer to that question depends on your preference I suppose. I would expect temperatures perhaps dropping as runners are in motion. We may start in the 40s and drop into the 30s or start in the 30s and hold steady throughout. The wind? It doesn’t look horrific, but it doesn’t look great either. We expect northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 mph or so. There will certainly be some gusts near 20 mph at times in there as well. The more meaningful wind should thankfully hold off until Monday or Tuesday.

How cold will it get and for how long?

You can see the chart above for IAH. Let’s answer a few different questions. In Houston, the absolute worst case scenario right now would be temperatures dropping below freezing on Monday morning and staying there through Wednesday morning. Bear in mind that these would be temperatures more in the low-30s Monday (instead of the low to mid-20s like we saw during the February 2021 freeze). A more reasonable scenario is that we poke above freezing for a bit on Monday, then drop back Monday night and stay there into Wednesday morning. The coldest stretches (temperatures of 25 degrees or colder) will probably be limited to 8 to 10 hours at a time Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

With gusty winds likely on Monday and especially Tuesday, look for wind chill values to drop into the teens much of the time, and at least for a time perhaps in the single digits. This is dangerous cold for pets and people outside, so please make sure to bring in the pets and check on anyone vulnerable to cold exposure.

Will there be wintry precipitation?

A disturbance passing over top of the cold air looks likely on Monday now. This will likely produce 12 to 24 hours of light precipitation across the area. With temperatures hovering near freezing, yes, that means we could see some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as that precipitation moves through. There’s good news and bad news here. The good news is that amounts look light. So this isn’t going to be an all-out ice storm with lots of power outages due to ice buildup.

The bad news is that any amount of ice can make travel difficult. Monday is a holiday so there will be fewer people on the road already. That’s good news, but if for whatever reason you have to go out on Monday, please check on area roads before you leave. DriveTexas.org is a good resource to have. The Houston TranStar website will show you areas of ice. While there is still uncertainty on exactly how cold it will be Monday, it will be close enough to freezing to think that at least patchy ice will be possible on area roads, especially north and west of Houston and on freeway flyovers.

We don’t want to get into the prediction of traffic or school closures, but yes, you will want to pay attention to how things evolve this weekend for going to back to school or work on Tuesday, as Monday’s conditions could directly impact Tuesday’s commute too.

Will my flight be impacted?

We don’t predict airline behavior here, but yes, probably at some point Bush and Hobby will have some issues, but hopefully nothing major.

When does it end?

As you can see from the temperature forecast above, once we get above freezing on Wednesday morning, we are probably going to stay there into Thursday, with temperatures even near 60 degrees possible! Colder weather should come back next weekend, but it will likely be milder than we will see early next week. We will have more, including a broader look at Texas during this freeze event later today.

We hope everyone is having a good weekend so far. Congratulations to the Texans on a huge win last night, and we’re looking forward to next weekend’s return to the Playoffs! Today looks great, weather-wise, so whether you’re calmly watching football, taking part in the CFP Championship activities around the area, or anything else, it looks great. Tomorrow is another matter, and that’s why we’re writing a post on Sunday!

Tonight and Monday morning

Expect clouds and moisture to surge into the area tonight. By early Monday morning, we should have areas of light rain, drizzle, or spotty showers across the area. Nothing significant is expected before 10 or 11 AM, but the coverage of showers and periods of light to moderate rain should increase across the area.

Monday afternoon and evening

The good news is that the best parameters for severe weather tomorrow afternoon seem to be north and east of the area, as is often the case this time of year. The bad news is that we’re not in the clear, exactly. With clouds and showers around Monday morning, we’re likely to have a bit of a cap in place in the atmosphere, which tends to limit how severe storms can get. As showers continue Monday afternoon, they may build in intensity a bit. There are some signs that the cap may try to erode a bit, particularly east and perhaps northeast of Houston as we go into the afternoon, however, and that’s why I think we want to continue to watch tomorrow closely.

If a storm can get established in the area and intensify, it could produce strong winds or hail tomorrow afternoon. An isolated tornado, especially near the coast or to the east of Houston is not out of the question either. Eric will have the latest for you on this on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a second shot of storms, coming in the form of a line of them from Central Texas will approach the area right around 5 to 7 PM, just in time for folks to head to NRG Stadium for the CFP Championship. While we don’t expect significant severe weather with this line of storms, it will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds, or small hail as it moves through, so from a tailgating point of view, be ready to get inside.

You’ll also notice a big time change in temperature as that line moves through during the evening. We will see temperatures drop from near 70 degrees before the line of storms into the mid-50s shortly after the rain kicks up.

Beyond the severe weather risk, tomorrow looks breezy. Onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts to around 40 mph are possible. While this probably won’t cause major issues, there is the chances that some weaker tree branches could blow down. If you’ve still got holiday decorations up, you’ll want to secure those as well. Winds will ease up a bit in the evening hours, but by the time we get to Tuesday, we’ll see more wind, this time from the other direction (the north), gusting to 35 to 40 mph and stronger over and near the coast. There will be low water levels and rough seas on Tuesday.

Total rainfall will probably average a half-inch to inch for most places in our area. Some may see a bit less (especially down toward Wharton, El Campo, or Victoria), while others may see a bit more, especially east of Houston. No major flooding concerns are expected beyond the usual localized ponding in typical trouble spots.

Expect a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures this week, and an increasing chance of the first real widespread freeze (a typical freeze, not a massive one) of the season on Saturday morning. Eric will have the latest on all that for you tomorrow.

It’s been a busy morning with a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms moving through. We even had a tornado warning in Brazoria County earlier from this vigorous little storm. As of just about 7 AM, the heaviest rain is east of I-45, with Galveston and Chambers Counties in line for the worst over the next hour or so.

In addition to the rain, gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph are possible, especially in Galveston and Trinity Bays and near the coast. All of this will progress eastward toward Beaumont and Port Arthur through mid-morning with heavy rain and strong winds, as well as some embedded thunder. Most areas will finish with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain when all is said and done, with isolated higher and lower amounts.

Rest of today

Once this line of rain and storms exits to our east, we’ll be left with a few hours of showers or lighter rain and clouds this morning. By afternoon, we could see some clearing begin to push in from the west, so some sunshine may pop out, especially south and west of Houston before the end of today. Otherwise, look for highs in the 50s with a slight northwest breeze.

Weekend

This weekend looks splendid for the most part. There could be areas of fog overnight into Saturday morning, but I would expect those to clear out rather fast on Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect sunshine both Saturday and Sunday, with nothing more than the high clouds we’ve seen at times over the last month or so, especially south of Houston.

Both mornings should see lows near 40 or so in Houston proper and some upper-30s in the suburbs. Daytime highs will be near 60 on Saturday and probably the same on Sunday.

Monday

Next week is going to begin on an active note. From Sunday night into Monday, southerly winds will surge humidity in off the Gulf. At the same time, a storm system will kick start off the Rockies and move into the Plains, dragging arguably the strongest cold front of this winter across Texas. So what does it mean? A number of things.

First off, we’re likely to see winds pick up off the Gulf Monday, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph or even a bit stronger at times. We’ll all notice this.

It’s still too soon to really get into the finer details of things yet, but we are expecting scattered thunderstorms on Monday, and any of those storms could be on the stronger side. Right now it appears that gusty winds may be the biggest concern with any storms, but we’ll look at this closer through the weekend and report back with an update.

The Storm Prediction Center has us outlined for a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms right now. We’ll monitor this through the weekend.

Temperatures on Monday are also going to surge warmer, with highs likely in the 70s in the afternoon. Everyone should see a bit of rain but totals will vary widely depending on how storms setup. Again, we’ll fine tune this ahead of Monday.

For anyone heading to or visiting for the college football national championship, it’s entirely possible that you could head into NRG Stadium with temps in the 70s and leave with temps in the 40s or low-50s, so just be aware of that.

Rest of next week

On Monday evening, a cold front will sweep through the area, likely ushering in strong offshore winds and much colder weather. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph or even stronger will be possible Monday night and Tuesday behind the front. Much colder air will plunge in with lows in the 40s Tuesday morning and highs only in the low-50s. This might be the coldest air mass of the winter so far, and the coldest morning will be on Wednesday, with morning lows in the 30s everywhere and a light freeze possible in the suburbs.

After that, we warm back up again with temps near 60 on Wednesday and back to near 70 or so by Thursday.

Houston Marathon

Many of you are curious about the Houston Marathon. The good news is that right now the timing of systems looks good for a cooler run. The question becomes “how cool?” We should see another system bring a front into the area probably some time on Friday, leading to a cooler, breezier Saturday. As of now, I would expect race start temperatures on Sunday to be in the 40s with hopefully light winds. We would probably warm up into the upper-40s or low-50s by the end of the run. More to come!

After a fairly nice day on Thursday, we are back to the cloud thing again today (though the east side might be seeing a good bit of sun initially). A storm system passing through tonight with a cold front will bring most of us some rain, locally heavy at times, before we clear out for the weekend. Read on for the latest on Christmas below as well.

Today

Most of today will be just fine, with nothing worse than some clouds. A passing shower is possible, especially near Matagorda Bay today or north and west of Houston this afternoon, but the rain should hold off for most of today. After 3 or 4 PM, rain chances do start to increase. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low-70s. Also look for some breezy conditions today, especially over the water and at the coast.

Tonight

The exact timing of the rain will vary from place to place, but generally look for a northwest to southeast progression of rain this evening after about 5 to 6 PM or so. Rain will fall through the night, heavy at times, especially north and west of Houston I think. There will probably be an axis of maximum rainfall that sits north and west of Houston, from Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston.

In that area, we’re expecting 1 to maybe as much as 2 inches, with slightly higher or lower amounts depending on exactly how things set up. For most of the city and suburbs, rain will push through but totals will vary a bit more, perhaps as little as a quarter-inch to as much as an inch or so. This will extend south and east until you get to the coast. Some locally heavier rainfall could fall near the immediate coast or just offshore. Some rumbles of thunder and some ponding on roads are certainly possible tonight, but we are not expecting severe weather or significant flooding. Lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday

Any showers should clear the area in the early morning, leaving us with clouds. We should see at least partial clearing during the day Saturday, but temperatures probably won’t get too far past 60 degrees in the afternoon.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday look like a great pair of early winter days. Expect sunshine with lows in the low-40s and highs in the low, maybe mid-60s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We don’t expect any significant weather for the middle of next week, but look for varying periods of sun and clouds. Days that are cloudy will be in the 50s to low 60s, while days with sun will pop into the mid to upper-60s. Morning lows should remain generally in the 40s to perhaps 50s by Thursday.

Piecing together the Christmas period

The Christmas weekend continues to look mild and potentially unsettled. Initially, look for warm weather and probably clouds and some sun with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the story is next weekend, but between maps and charts, we can start to make some assumptions. Atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in Houston beginning Friday and Saturday. Right now, the European ensemble mean for precipitable water next weekend is around 1.25″ in Houston, which puts us fairly close to the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture. In simple terms: There will be a good deal of moisture available to produce clouds and showers next weekend in the area.

Moisture doesn’t mean a whole lot unless there is a “trigger” to produce rain and storms. The best setup for that looks to be in interior Texas next Friday and Saturday, but that will march eastward Sunday and Monday, which seems to imply some sort of cold front.

So what’s it all mean? Expect clouds and some shower chances Friday and Saturday with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Temperatures are likely to be a good deal above normal, with highs in the 70s likely, followed by colder weather after Christmas. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend and update you with the latest on Monday!