Matt Lanza

After a couple rounds of some gnarly storms on Thursday and Saturday, the region should be in for a fairly durable break over the next several days. However, the cost will be the strongest heat since last summer. It makes for a fairly simple weather forecast, but there are at least a couple things to note. Since every day looks to be about the same, we’ll discuss things a little differently today.

How hot are we talking?

Forecast highs today through the weekend look to be in the upper-90s to low-100s each and every day. There is probably a slightly higher chance of 100+ as we get closer to the weekend as the upper level ridge of high pressure that’s causing this heat flexes a bit more.

Models indicate about a 70 percent chance of hitting 100° during the peak of the heat (expected Friday through Sunday), with about a 35 percent chance of hitting 103° and a 15 percent chance of 105° in Houston. We get hot in summer here in Houston, but this is sort of the next level of heat. Morning lows will be in the 70s to near 80 each day.

How bad will the humidity be?

The humidity will be about as bad as you typically see in Houston in summer. There’s nothing about this air mass that’s overly impressive in terms of humidity right now. Dewpoints will be running near to maybe just a little above average. So, you’ll feel the humidity for sure, but that’s typical for our area. However, with abnormally hot weather to go with that humidity, it sets us up for escalating heat this week.

As of right now, the National Weather Service does not intend to issue heat advisories for the Houston area today or tomorrow, but that will probably change later this week when we start testing that criteria (heat index, or “feels like” values of 108+ or air temperatures of 103+) a little more. Excessive heat warning criteria features heat index values of 113° or higher or air temperatures of 105° and up.

Initially, expect afternoon heat index values of 103 to 107°, worst in and south and east of Houston, escalating to near 110° or hotter by late week. Whatever criteria we do or do not hit, it will be important to take it easier than normal in the afternoon heat. The NWS Houston office has a handy web page with graphics and information on heat safety. Look before you lock, drink water, wear sunscreen, and try to stay cool.

Will anything make this more tolerable?

If you’ve been paying close attention since May, you may have noticed a real lack of wind around these parts. We had some pretty windy months earlier in spring and also last spring. But since at least 2010, no May 1st through June 10th period has had a lower average wind speed in Houston. Relative to recent years, it’s been dead calm. That is finally changing this week.

We expect wind this week to average about 10 to 15 mph or so, with occasional daytime gusts of 20 mph. While that won’t make it feel nice with temperatures this hot, it will take a bit of the edge off. It’s a bit counter-intuitive, as this sort of heat is typically associated with what we derisively call a “death ridge,” a hot, dry, calm atmosphere. But we’ll be downstream of it at least initially, so we benefit with some wind.

How about rain chances?

Those will be mostly absent. I would say that if you live north of Houston, up toward, say Huntsville or Madisonville, you have at least a chance at getting grazed by some storms that will pass across North Texas this evening, Tuesday morning, and Wednesday morning. Model guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows about a daily peak of 10 to 15 percent chances of measurable rain over the next 7 to 10 days for Houston, and maybe 15 to 20 percent up north of Huntsville and Walker County. Chances look absolutely paltry south of I-10 right now. So, no, it does not appear we will see much, if any rain over the next week.

Do we need to worry about power outages?

At this time, ERCOT says that there may be calls for conservation at some point, but they do not anticipate dealing with outages this week. I have seen that thought echoed by others “in the know” on social media that do not work for ERCOT or Texas. It’s always a good idea to conserve where you can this time of year, but the grid should be able to manage the heat for now.

When will this end?

I wish we could answer that with confidence.

If you look at the weather pattern about 20,000 feet up over the next 10 days (looped above), you can see that the ridge flexes this weekend (indicated by a horseshoe-like curvature to the black lines over Texas) into early next week. We call this a “persistence forecast,” where every day is basically mostly like the previous day. What that means is we’ll likely be dealing with high temperatures of 97 to 103 degrees over the next 10 days. I will caution that there’s always a chance we can’t see a disturbance or something that can throw a wrench into a persistence forecast like this. But right now, I certainly don’t see what that catalyst would be. After midweek next week, it does appear that the ridge may retreat to the west some, which could allow for a bump in rain chances and cooler weather.

Stay cool, and we’ll be back with an update on Tuesday morning!

Houston hit 95 degrees yesterday, our hottest day so far this year, and we’ll be on track to come close to that again today. Over the last 30 years, the average first 95 degree day in Houston was on June 8th. So we’re right on schedule this year. And while heat remains the primary weather story for the next week or more, there will be some storms worth watching later today. But not for everyone.

Everything looks pretty okay through early afternoon. So if you’re looking to get in a morning swim or have a morning/midday birthday party to attend, no worries.

Things get more complicated this afternoon. Storms should begin to fire up in North Texas, near DFW, which is the primary area we’ll be watching this evening. Additional isolated storms are possible in the northern reaches of the Houston area, so if you’re on Lake Livingston or Lake Conroe this afternoon, just keep an ear out for thunder and seek shelter should you hear some. An additional very isolated shower like yesterday is possible in the Houston metro area. But for the most part, things look okay through, call it, 3 to 5 PM or so.

Thereafter, things become a bit trickier. Storms near Dallas should be hauling south and east during the late afternoon, finally reaching the northern fringe of southeast Texas by about 5 to 8 PM. Assuming they can hold together, they’ll get into Huntsville, Conroe, and Cleveland by about 8 to 11 PM. And from there, the northern half of the Houston metro and The Woodlands around Midnight, give or take. Everything will push offshore overnight.

What can we expect: North of Houston, where the enhanced risk is in place, which includes College Station and Huntsville, watch for strong, damaging winds from any storms, the potential for hail, and even an isolated tornado (though that would probably be a higher risk closer to Dallas). As the storms come south from there, the threat for wind and hail will continue — but slowly diminish. Any damaging winds would probably be more isolated than widespread. Hail would be isolated as well. And there’s a chance that some places, especially in the western third of the Houston area see nothing. By the time the storms get to the coast overnight, they may just have lightning and thunder.

At this point, I don’t believe these storms will have the same impact on our area as Thursday’s storms did, and the highest odds for anything like that will be north of Highway 105 and east of I-45. That said, there’s at least reason to keep tabs on things this evening across the area, so stay aware of the weather around you. Conditions should improve overnight and tomorrow looks fine.

Look for highs in the mid-90s, maybe into the upper-90s in a couple spots on Sunday. We’ll be back with more on Monday!

Yesterday was something. There are still about 35,000 customers without power across the Houston area early this morning according to Centerpoint. We saw trees down, fences down, and more yesterday. Pasadena and South Houston saw just shy of 3 inches of rain. Officially, we had a couple 56 mph wind gusts reported, one in Cypress, one atop a building in the Med Center. Hobby and Bush Airports both gusted near 45 mph. Pearland hit 47 mph. San Leon topped off at 53 mph. A few stronger gusts may have occurred in between. We have some photos (and fun videos) shared by readers on our Instagram account. Feel free to tag us over there if you ever see something cool!

Today

The good news is that we should have a much quieter day today. We will start to feel the heat creep up however with temperatures likely hitting the mid-90s this afternoon. Yes, look for a handful of pop-up storms later this afternoon, but it should pale in comparison to Thursday’s action.

Saturday

It continues to look as though a weak little disturbance will pass across Texas tomorrow, disrupting the growth of the hot ridge of high pressure out of Mexico and bringing a bumped up chance of storms, especially north of Houston. While I don’t think storms will have quite the punch in Houston as they did yesterday, some of these storms could easily be on the stronger side, so if you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon, keep this in mind. The Storm Prediction Center has Houston proper split between a marginal and slight risk of storms, with the higher risk north and lesser risk south.

We are again mainly concerned about the potential for damaging winds. There’s a good chance we’ll have a quick updated post for you tomorrow morning to better time and assess things. Outside of that, look for sun, clouds, and highs in the mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday through Tuesday

The pattern should stabilizes Sunday onward, dropping our rain chances down to about 10 percent or so and leading to temperatures in the mid to upper-90s. Some morning lows could be near 80 degrees. It’ll feel a bit rough. Again, practice heat precautions during this time, as we’re not yet quite acclimated to this sort of summer heat.

Wednesday through Friday

Temperatures should continue to creep upward later next week, with our peak odds of 100 degree weather coming on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. At this point, we don’t see anything meaningful enough to wreck this forecast, so expect that the worst of the heat is yet to come.

Lastly: Yes, we are aware of a certain operational weather model frequently showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf in about 10+ days. Make sure you’re following our companion site, The Eyewall for more detail on the entire tropics, including things like this in fantasyland. Spoiler alert, we don’t believe it to be a legitimate concern.

Before we get into the heat, we still have a couple things to discuss, including the potential for a few stronger storms today. We’ll hit on that, but then we’ll assess the upcoming heat, how long it may last, and how hot it may actually get.

Today

For all intents and purposes, today may be like the last couple days have been in Houston: Hazy, sunny, then afternoon pop up storms. The haze is primarily a result of agricultural burning in Central America and southern Mexico. It does appear that air quality readings are a bit better this morning than they have been this week. Ground ozone will again be an issue today due to sunshine, warm weather, and light winds.

Today’s forecast is a bit more difficult than normal for this time of year. We have a lot of “juice” for thunderstorms, including healthy instability, a little bit of wind shear, and a lot of chaotic boundaries that may interact with one another this afternoon and evening.

We will probably see storms begin to pop up after 12 to 2 PM as they have on most afternoons this week. From there, it’s very difficult to predict the exact evolution of things. Storms may interact with each other, in addition to old boundaries sitting over the area. We may also add in a cluster of new storms coming in from the north and west as well. Whatever the case, it would appear that some of us will be in for some stormy weather late this afternoon and early this evening. Have your umbrella and a place to sneak indoors available. If you have any late afternoon outdoor activities, have a way to get warnings and move inside if you hear thunder We saw numerous lightning strikes seemingly out of the blue yesterday afternoon near my house before storms had actually developed.

Aside from storms, look for highs generally in the low-90s today.

Friday

We will begin to see high pressure in the upper atmosphere build out of Mexico and into Texas tomorrow. This will allow for most places away from the coast to touch the mid-90s or even a bit hotter. Morning lows will be generally in the 70s.

Rain chances will again be in the forecast, lower than today but not near zero. Some isolated stronger storms may again be possible, especially east of Houston toward Beaumont and Port Arthur.

Saturday

We interrupt this developing heat wave with a quick interlude. A weak disturbance will disrupt the burgeoning ridge of high pressure over Texas and probably increase rain chances a bit on Saturday afternoon or evening, especially north of I-10. Most places will probably stay dry, but there will be some areas that see downpours. We should still manage to get into the 90s on Saturday, after morning lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday through Tuesday

Hot and humid. Rain chances won’t quite be zero, but they’ll be exceedingly low. High temperatures on these days will be well into the 90s with morning lows in the mid to upper-70s, if not near 80 degrees in spots.

When we start talking upper 90s by day and near 80 by night, that’s when you can start running into heat stress issues. Please make sure elderly, young children, and vulnerable populations (and pets!) are tended to next week. Also, you too! Our bodies have experienced a pretty pleasant late May and June by Houston standards. We have not acclimated to true summer heat yet. This will hit us pretty good. Drink water, wear sunscreen, and take it easy outside.

How long does this last?

If you look at upper level maps, it appears we might have a brief chance at better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday of next week as a weak trough flattens the ridge some. But it is expected to then reload heading toward next weekend, so it will be awhile we think.

How hot can it get?

I guess the better question is: Can we do 100 degrees? The answer is yes. The National Blend of Models has us at about a 65 percent chance of hitting 100 degrees next Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. But that’s not guaranteed. Things that could wreck that chance include soil moisture, more numerous afternoon storms than expected, and high clouds from an El Niño-driven stronger than normal southern jet stream.

Soil moisture is running near normal or even slightly above normal in our area. A drier ground heats up more efficiently, but more moisture in the ground can slow down that heating process a bit. Thus, this could be good for knocking a degree or so off temperatures next week. So maybe instead of 101°, we end up near 99-100° or so.

The axis of high pressure for much of next week is centered over and just west of Hill Country. While Houston isn’t exactly on the periphery of that, there is always the chance that models are underdoing our rain chances some. Higher rain chances may yield slightly lower temperatures.

Lastly, the jet stream has been humming over Texas and Mexico lately. This is likely tied back to the developing El Niño in the Pacific. Anytime you have an active Pacific jet like this, you run the risk of high clouds. Should we get more of those than expected, look for a couple degrees knocked off high temps next week, but perhaps a degree or two added to nighttime lows. This would be true more so early on than later next week.

With all that said, I think there’s probably a better than 50 to 60 percent chance we hit 100 degrees next week, with multiple 98-99 degree days peppered in between. Either way, hot. Very hot.