Matt Lanza

As promised, yesterday ended up being much, much calmer, giving us a chance to exhale and dry out a bit. Things are going to pick back up again as we head into the weekend — but probably not for everyone. We continue to see a pretty healthy split in the weekend outlook, with areas west of Houston more likely to see more rain than the Houston area itself. As a result, the National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch for areas southwest of Houston for the weekend.

Those areas under the flood watch are the most likely areas to see multiple rounds of heavier rain this weekend. Areas not under a flood watch (which is most of Houston) are likely to see at least some showers this weekend, including the risk of some heavy rain. But it would most likely be manageable. That said, Eric and I will be monitoring the weather this weekend, and we’ll post an update or two if necessary or if things change, which I would caution is possible.

Today

Of the next several days, today looks calmest. Yes, there will probably be at least a few showers or storms around this afternoon in parts of the area. But those will probably be the exception, not the rule. Look for a good deal of clouds this morning, yielding to sunshine with highs well into the 80s, if not near 90 degrees.

Saturday & Sunday

I wanted to split these days up in the forecast to try and give you a better idea of what to expect each day, but the pattern over the state of Texas this weekend is far too chaotic for me to try and time anything out specifically.

Here’s the deal: If you have outdoor plans this weekend, have a backup plan indoors if needed. If your plans take you west of Houston (Austin, San Antonio, Hill Country, the Valley, you will likely run into thunderstorms at some point, including the chance of heavy rain, severe weather, and flooding. Be aware of what’s happening out that way and do your best to avoid flood prone areas if possible.

Total rain this weekend across Texas will be highest in the Rio Grande Valley through San Antonio, with high amounts into Hill Country as well. Exactly who sees the most rain is TBD. But these areas need it with widespread drought in west and central Texas.

For us in Houston, while we don’t want to be overconfident, it would appear that Saturday afternoon or evening may carry the highest risk of storms making their way into the metro area. Sunday should, should see slightly lower rain chances for Houston proper and the metro area. Both days will be warm and humid with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the 70s. Outside of any storms, we may see some sunshine. But clouds may be a bit more dominant this weekend.

Early next week

The weather pattern across Texas remains active next week, with scattered showers and storms possible. It may not rain every day, but there will at least be a chance of rain each day. We still look to see a weak “wind shift” front later Monday or Tuesday. Maybe we drop humidity a tick or two, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that. Temperatures will be generally in the mid to upper-80s by day and low-70s by night.

As noted, Eric and I will be watching the weather this weekend and update accordingly, if only to help everyone strategize their weekend plans. In the meantime, to the many moms that read our site, happy Mother’s Day!

We’d like to officially welcome you to early summer today. The next several days will feel more like later May or early June than early May. Not unheard of by any means, but certainly a change from what we’ve been experiencing much of the last month or so. The humidity is likely here for awhile. The heat may wane some eventually, thanks to a potentially wetter, stormier weather pattern in Texas.

Just a quick note on the hotter weather this weekend. Early season heat can be a little tougher on the body because we have not adapted to it yet, especially after such a comfortable spring. So please take it easy on yourself outside this weekend and practice heat safety.

Today

Some patchy fog may greet you out the door this morning, but short of that, it’s quiet. Much like yesterday, the sky may look threatening at times today, but most of the day will be fine. We’ll call it mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-80s, maybe near 90 in spots with enough sunshine. Storm chances this afternoon aren’t especially high, maybe on the order of 10 to 20 percent, but anyone that sees a storm later today could see some gusty winds, hail, legitimate downpours and lightning.

Saturday and Sunday

So, if you look at your phone’s weather app (including our own app!), it looks like this weekend is going to be miserably stormy. In reality, it’s not going to be that bad. Both days will feature a chance of showers or storms. But coverage of those storms is expected to be isolated. So plan for the chance of having your outdoor plans temporarily disrupted by storms, but I would not necessarily expect that to be the likely outcome. Sunday may carry a slightly higher chance of rain than Saturday, especially north of Houston.

One thing I would plan on is hot weather. Saturday’s forecast highs are shown above, and Sunday won’t be much different. Expect upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows in the 70s. And plenty of humidity.

Next week

The pattern this weekend is going to feature a ridge of high pressure about 20,000 feet above us. Early next week, that ridge is going to break down. It will be replaced by more of a trough, a cutoff low pressure system, or something “flatter” over South Texas. In simple language: The pattern is likely to turn more unsettled with rain chances much of next week.

Given the difficulty with specifics, I would say we’d probably copy and paste a forecast of clouds, sun, a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain each day, highs well into the 80s, and lows in the 70s.

The wetter pattern is expected to stick in Texas, with models forecasting above average rain over Texas for the next 2 weeks. The map below shows the days 8 to 14 forecast rainfall anomaly from the European ensemble mean.

We’ll see if that’s the case, but if you’ve been seeking some added rainfall this spring, you may get your wishes granted.

Despite the noisy storms early Thursday, we were rewarded with just a delightful Thursday evening and now a cool, pleasant Friday morning. Today looks great, but tonight may get noisy again, so mentally prepare now. But after some lingering showers Saturday morning, the rest of the weekend looks pretty great. And if you’re riding in the Texas MS 150, there’s all kinds of mixed news for you. Prepare those leg muscles.

Today

Any low clouds or patchy fog west of Houston should clear quickly this morning. Then, just spectacular. Sunshine, tolerable humidity, and highs in the 80s. Look for some clouds to begin to increase later today. Storms are not expected before evening in the Houston area at this point.

Tonight

It all changes after sunset. We expect a pretty well organized line of thunderstorms to develop across the I-35 corridor, somewhat like we saw on Wednesday evening. That line of storms is expected to plow south and east toward our region after 7 PM.

For College Station, it may arrive as early as 5 to 7 PM, moving south and east quickly into the Houston area after 8 to 9 PM. The SPC has us in a “slight” risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5), with parts of the Brazos Valley in the “enhanced” risk (level 3 of 5). We expect a well defined line of strong to locally severe storms with lightning, thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds (some chance of hail in the Brazos Valley). The line should weaken some as it approaches Houston. Once that initial line moves through, additional showers and rumbles of thunder (not severe) would continue into very early Saturday morning before ending after sunrise.

All in all we expect roughly a half-inch of rain or less, with some places seeing perhaps a bit more, mainly well northwest or well south of the city. Temperatures will fall into the upper-50s or low-60s.

Saturday

Any rain should clear early. We’ll probably hang onto the clouds for a few hours Saturday, but by midday the sun should be out. Saturday is going to be a bit of an odd duck for the end of April. It may feel a bit more like late winter than late spring. We’ll see temperatures probably in the 60s for most places, maybe low-70s with enough sun. Normally we see low-80s this time of year. Additionally, offshore winds are going to be cranking, around 20 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. Not quite a true ‘norther but about as close as you can get this time of year. Saturday night will see widespread 50s, if not even some 40s in parts of the area.

Sunday

Sunday should be a nearly perfect spring day. We’ll have sunshine, lighter winds, comfortable humidity, and temperatures in the low-80s, almost spot on normal for this time of year.

Texas MS 150

Alright, so if you read the sections above you know there’s mixed news. If you’re riding in the MS 150, here is the quick rundown.

• Comfortable humidity levels both days.
• Cool temperatures Saturday, warm temperatures Sunday afternoon.
• A wicked headwind Saturday, much less wind Sunday.

There’s no way to sugarcoat Saturday. The weather is going to be fantastic, but the wind is just going to be brutal. At times it may be more of a crosswind than a headwind, but it’s going to be coming out of the northwest or north-northwest sustained at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 30 or 35 mph, especially in exposed northwest facing ridges along the route.

On Sunday, you’ll trade warmer temperatures for less wind. The morning won’t start that way, with temperatures likely in the 40s in La Grange. We’ll quickly warm through the 50s and 60s into the 70s by mid to late morning and eventually near 80 degrees in College Station. The good news is that wind will be much lighter, only about 5 to 10 mph out of the west.

Next week and beyond

There’s not too much notable about next week here in the Houston area, weather-wise. Expect gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels through the week. We will probably level off with mid-80s for highs and mid to upper-60s for lows by Tuesday or Wednesday. Shower chances will return by then as well but right now no day looks to have particularly impressive rain chances.

The big question right now will be whether or not we can eke out another late spring cool front sometime next weekend. The map above is the Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook from Thursday. It shows a cool West and a cool East, with warm temperatures up in the northern Plains and Rockies. For Texas this time of year, these types of setups always cause us headaches. Can the cooler air get just enough oomph behind it to push south next weekend? Or will it just briefly, barely graze us and nudge off to the east quickly? If it can push through, expect another couple low humidity but mild days. If not, we’ll continue a more typical, humid late spring with rain chances. I’m optimistic we can squeeze a front through, but I also know that the odds in early May are not forever in our favor.

Good morning. It was a bit of a noisy night last night across much of the area at various times. Rain totals were quite variable. Most of the inner part of Houston saw 1 inch or less of rain overnight. Northern Harris County north through Montgomery County saw 1-3 inches of rain. Coastal areas got hit by a second complex of storms and saw 1 to 3 inches south of Houston with up to nearly 4 inches in Galveston.

You can view more rain totals from the Harris County Flood Control website. While the night didn’t go exactly to plan, the end result was mostly in line with expectations and nearly everyone saw rain.

Rest of today

The atmosphere is pretty worked over after last night’s storms, so those will actually work to help us have a mostly decent day today. I am hopeful that we see some sunshine break out this morning from west to east. We’ll then possibly cloud up again heading into the afternoon as the cold front approaches. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible as the front passes. But I think most areas will stay calm today. We should manage the 80s for highs this afternoon, with pretty high humidity. It’ll feel a little soupy.

Saturday

Everything continues to look great tomorrow. We expect sun, comfortable humidity, and temperatures warming from the 50s (or low-60s) well into the 70s.

Sunday

We’re continuing to watch a vigorous disturbance for Sunday that will likely pass comfortably south of Houston. That being said, rain chances are going to build up across the area, but especially south of the city during the afternoon. These breakdowns are approximate and if you fall “on a line,” don’t read into either too much.

For the City of Houston and points north: Expect clouds and some sun on Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s to near 60, and we will warm up in the mid-70s. Humidity will be a little higher Sunday but by no means oppressive. Showers are likely to break out during the afternoon hours, especially the closer you get to I-10 or highway 59/I-69. A thunderstorm can’t be completely ruled out either.

For places south of Houston: Expect mainly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms developing on Sunday afternoon. Chances for heavier rain and more widespread thunder will be close to Matagorda Bay. As you go north or up the coast from there, rain chances will gradually taper from widespread to “scattered.” Some of the storms could be strong to severe on Sunday, especially as you get closer to the Corpus Christi area.

Rain will be heavy as well with 1 to 3 inches possible south of Matagorda Bay. Anyway, the bottom line is if your travels take you south of Houston on Sunday, you’ll want to be aware of this. Outdoor plans in and around Houston will clearly be a bit hit or miss.

Monday

This looks like a calmer day with just a very slight chance of showers or a storm. Look for highs in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s.

Tuesday

Details on how Tuesday will play out are fuzzy, but it’s safe to say that rain chances are notably higher versus Monday. Expect at least scattered showers and storms. It will be warmer and more humid, with highs near 80 and lows in the 60s.

Wednesday

The atmosphere may need to recover from leg day on Tuesday, so rain chances look a bit lower here. We should temps into the 80s with some sun, while AM lows struggle to get much below 70 degrees.

Thursday

Cold front day? Shower and storm chances will increase again here, as we see a cold front approach the region. Again, it’s too soon to figure out details. But it appears we’re going to see scattered storms at the least. This should hopefully setup a nice weekend for the MS150 and any other events around the region. But, we still have a few days to watch things.