Warming back up with a decent weekend expected in Houston

Summary: Temperatures will begin warming up today as we clear out the clouds. Look for a super Saturday and a decent Sunday with temperatures rebounding to near 80° once more. A system Monday brings us our next rain chances before we slowly clear out Tuesday.

Today

It’s a cool start today once again with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region.

Chilly temps to start Friday with 40s and 50s over most of the region. (NOAA)

We will probably be socked in with clouds over most of the region this morning. But as a weak system exits, slightly drier air will push in and dissipate much of the cloud cover, setting up what should be a nice afternoon. It feels like it will be tough to squeeze much more moisture out of that system as it exits today, so other than a few isolated morning showers, especially on the coast or around Matagorda Bay, that should be that. With some added sunshine and slightly warmer air in place, we’ll likely rebound to 70 degrees or better this afternoon. That’s close to what is typical for this time of year.

Rodeo Forecast

As far as this forecaster is concerned, tonight is worth much more than half a buck. Look for temperatures dropping through the 60s with light winds and generally clear or partly cloudy skies. No need for 21 questions about the weather, as there will be no rain and nothing to worry about in da club afterwards.

We’ll open the evening around 70 degrees and close in the low-60s.

Weekend

Saturday looks great. Highs will be near 80 degrees, with humidity remaining at a fairly tolerable level. Sunshine and just a few clouds are expected, though the morning could stay gray in some spots, especially close to the coast or Galveston Bay.

Sunday may see additional morning low clouds or fog, giving way to a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will again be near 80 degrees. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a few raindrops Sunday afternoon, but it should not wreck your day.

Monday

A storm over the southern Plains will drag a “kinda sorta” front toward Houston on Monday. It honestly may just fall apart before it actually gets here. What it will do, regardless, is deliver an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. I would not call Monday a washout, but it looks like our best rain chance in a minute. Temperatures will start the day in the 60s and warm to near 80 once more, even with rain chances.

Rain totals through Tuesday look modest, though a few places may do better than what is shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

Moisture levels in the atmosphere look pretty beefy on Monday, so a few folks may see heavier downpours. But this rain looks very manageable, if not welcome.

Tuesday

Arguably, Tuesday is the most interesting forecast day. Behind Monday’s decaying front, we may get just enough lowering of humidity to allow for temperatures to have a little more runway to work with Tuesday. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and that drop in humidity between Monday and Tuesday will boost temps some. The question of how warm comes down to whether or not we see clouds and lingering showers Tuesday. If that happens, we’ll probably take a run toward 80 or so once again with morning lows in the 60s.

Tuesday’s high temperatures could easily be a few degrees warmer than shown here — if clouds and showers hold off. (Pivotal Weather)

However, with enough sunshine, we could push rather decently into the 80s. In fact, I looked “under the hood” at the National Blend of Models, and it even has a 10 percent chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Tuesday. I surely would not forecast that, but it gives you an idea that the atmosphere is ready to go warm. Will we get the sunshine to do it? I’m not sure. But expect at least 80 on Tuesday, with risk for hotter.

Rest of next week

Beyond Tuesday, the week looks a little cooler, with highs in the 70s most days, perhaps near 80 at times. Morning lows will be in the lower half of the 60s. A few passing showers can’t be ruled out between Wednesday and Saturday. A more robust cold front may approach the region around next weekend, which could allow for a sharper drop in temperatures, not as cold as it was yesterday and this morning but notably cooler. We’ll keep an eye on that.

We will never, ever complain about ‘boring’ weather in Houston

Summary: The weather looks drama-free over the next week or so. After another chance for 80 degrees today, a cool front takes the edge off tomorrow and this weekend. Another warm up ensues next week, followed by another front after midweek. Neither front seems likely to pack much punch right now.

Eric and I are here to keep you informed about the weather in Houston. It’s a duty we enjoy and take seriously. In times of quiet weather, we never complain. We’ve seen what bad weather is capable of here, so when the weather is quiet, we relish the fact that we can tell you so.

This isn’t just a blank map of Southeast Texas. It’s the forecast rainfall for the next 7 days from the National Weather Service. Congratulations on nothing! (Pivotal Weather)

I’m not going to complain because I’m struggling to fill a post with forecast information because it’s all some variation of the same thing, with the temperatures tweaked a bit here and there. I most certainly got my degree in meteorology to forecast lengthy stretches of lovely spring weather in February. Absolutely. No complaints here.

No, but in all seriousness the weather looks pretty calm with no real concerns through next week. Seriously, good for us!

Today and Friday

Look for clouds and sun today. We have avoided the 80 degree mark so far this week, so will we do it today? We’ll see. That will be the only real drama today. Maybe someone can squeeze out a raindrop or two ahead of tonight’s front. For once, it seems the Rodeo Cook-Off will not be cold or drizzly or extra windy or gross. Temps should drop from the mid-70s or so into the mid-60s through the event this evening.

That front moves through between about 7 PM and Midnight. Temperatures will steadily drop everywhere through the 70s and 60s and into the 50s overnight.

Friday dawns sunny with lower humidity and highs in the 70s. No issues at all for any of your plans, be they Rodeo, BBQ, work, or frolicking down the streets professing your joy for this weather.

Morning lows on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s area-wide. (Pivotal Weather)

Weekend

SUN-sational! Highs will be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s and 40s across the region on both days. Just a delightful pair of days.

Next week

The main drama next week will probably be a day or two of gusty onshore winds. Nothing serious, but certainly something you’ll notice. We should see highs near 80 degrees Monday through Wednesday, with morning lows in the 60s. It will feel very, very spring-like. Our next front hits on Thursday with at least a slight chance of rain, but honestly, the odds of meaningful rain look pretty low right now.

After one of our wettest starts to a year, things have really slowed down. We’re probably getting to the point where we could use a little more rain. But for now at least, that’s not on the horizon.

Spring-fling seventies streak is officially underway in Houston

Summary: A couple more very warm days are upon us before a Thursday night front cools us down just a little for Friday and the weekend, mainly in the mornings. We warm back up again early next week with another possible front after Tuesday. Rain looks to be at a premium over the next week or so.

Before we begin today, there was an article published yesterday by AccuWeather that sounded the alarm on the upcoming hurricane season. It singled out Texas as being at higher risk than normal as well. Over at our companion site, The Eyewall, I have a post up this morning explaining why we think it will be an active hurricane season but also why we believe it’s too soon to be singling out specific places. I have to warn you now: The next few months are going to be chock full of noise about the upcoming hurricane season. It does look setup to be active. We will continue to share what we know and what we think here and over at The Eyewall so you can make sense of what you might hear or see shared on social media.

Today

We’ve got some fog out there this morning, so use caution through 8-9 AM or so. Houston officially rocketed to 78 degrees yesterday, oddly the same temperature we hit exactly one year ago. But it likely begins a somewhat lengthy stretch of 70 degree days in Houston. Look for warm temps again today, with a chance at hitting 80 degrees in spots. Winds will be noticeably gustier today, at times 25 to 30 mph. Overall, a windy, mild day. For those of you that suffer from seasonal allergies, get ready.

Thursday

Expect a few more clouds tomorrow with morning lows in the 60s and daytime highs around 80 degrees or so. I don’t know if “humid” is the right word, but it will feel a little “thicker” outside.

Tomorrow looks very warm, with highs in the 80s, though a bit cooler near the coast. (Pivotal Weather)

Our next cold front will be moisture-starved and hit right around midnight tomorrow night. Maybe a few raindrops could get squeezed out ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, but I’d probably be more likely to bet on the Oakland A’s to win the World Series this season.

Friday

With the front past us on Friday, expect a lovely day: Sunny, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the 70s.

Weekend

If you want stereotypical spring weather, this is absolutely your weekend. The streak of rainy weekends is in the past. Look for morning lows in the 40s and 50s with daytime highs in the 70s Saturday and upper-70s Sunday.

The National Blend of Models offers a decent guess at temperatures over the next 10 days. Look for another warm up early next week before less warm weather kicks in mid to late week. (Weather Bell)

Early next week

I’d expect a pair of warm days Monday and Tuesday with increasing cloud cover. A slight chance of rain may enter the picture midweek with our next front knocking at the door. But details on that one are TBD right now. Either way, expect a slight cooldown after next Tuesday or Wednesday.

A wet Friday, a blustery Saturday, and a chilly Sunday morning, but the 80s are in sight

Summary: A mostly gentle rain is expected for most of the Houston area today, with the steadiest falling near the coast or down toward Matagorda Bay. A cold front will usher in a blustery overnight and Saturday with temperatures dropping into the 40s, before a spectacular Sunday and Monday. We’ll likely be talking 80s by midweek next week.

Before we get into things today, I want to give a shoutout to the second graders at Creekview Elementary up in Tomball. I got to visit them yesterday and answer all their weather questions, most of which happened to be about tornadoes! Some bright kiddos, and a thank you to Kristin Pesz, Tiffany Major, and the rest of the second grade teachers for having me out and for a couple special gifts!

Alright, let’s jump into the forecast.

Today

We’ll end the week on a wet note. This looks like the rare Houston steady rain that doesn’t dump all at once. This should be a rather gentle light to perhaps moderate rain most of the time in our area. Most of the area should see at least some rain, but the odds drop off, ahem, precipitously north of Highway 105.

Additional rainfall expected today into tomorrow. The highest amounts will be near Matagorda Bay and on the coast. (Pivotal Weather)

Areas south of Houston will see the most rain, which is to say a half-inch to inch perhaps, with the highest amounts down near Matagorda Bay. For Houston, totals will probably range from a few hundredths of an inch up near Conroe to a quarter to half inch south of I-10. Temperatures won’t move much today, with 60s this morning, increasing just a few degrees this afternoon.

Late tonight & Saturday

It will not be until about midnight or so, give or take an hour or two that we notice a big time change. A cold front will hit, which should taper any rain off to drizzle mostly. But behind it, fairly potent north winds will usher in cold air. Look for gusts of 20 to 30mph, stronger on the coast or near the Bay. And temperatures will probably hold steady in the mid to upper 40s at best. It will remain mostly cloudy with a few showers or some light rain around through the day, particularly south or east of Houston.

Sunday morning will be much less windy, but it will also be quite chilly, with frost or a light freeze possible, especially north and west of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Sunday

Winds calm down Saturday night, and Sunday will dawn calm and chilly. Look for lows in the 30s over a good chunk of the region. But Sunday’s daytime looks absolutely stellar, with temperatures rebounding well into the 50s to perhaps near 60 in spots. Oh, and it’ll be sunny. Definitely one to enjoy!

Presidents’ Day

Monday looks fantastic, with sunshine, morning lows in the 40s, and daytime highs near 70 degrees. Another stellar day.

Rest of next week

The warm up does not stop there. We will continue to add a little humidity and warmer temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect highs to hit the upper 70s Tuesday, and 80 or better Wednesday and Thursday. Current model guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests at least a 50 to 60 percent chance of 80 or better on both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will bump up into the 50s to near 60 degrees perhaps by Thursday.

There’s at least a 50 to 60 percent chance we hit or exceed 80 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday according to the National Blend of Models. Wednesday’s forecast temps are shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

No real meaningful shower chances are expected right now, but this warm pattern may allow for some sea fog in Galveston or along the bayshore. A cold front should nudge through the area Friday, allowing for cooler, dry weather next weekend but nothing too excessive. We’re probably looking at 40s and 50s for lows and 60s or 70s for highs. More on that next week.