Matt Lanza

Good morning. It was a bit of a noisy night last night across much of the area at various times. Rain totals were quite variable. Most of the inner part of Houston saw 1 inch or less of rain overnight. Northern Harris County north through Montgomery County saw 1-3 inches of rain. Coastal areas got hit by a second complex of storms and saw 1 to 3 inches south of Houston with up to nearly 4 inches in Galveston.

You can view more rain totals from the Harris County Flood Control website. While the night didn’t go exactly to plan, the end result was mostly in line with expectations and nearly everyone saw rain.

Rest of today

The atmosphere is pretty worked over after last night’s storms, so those will actually work to help us have a mostly decent day today. I am hopeful that we see some sunshine break out this morning from west to east. We’ll then possibly cloud up again heading into the afternoon as the cold front approaches. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible as the front passes. But I think most areas will stay calm today. We should manage the 80s for highs this afternoon, with pretty high humidity. It’ll feel a little soupy.

Saturday

Everything continues to look great tomorrow. We expect sun, comfortable humidity, and temperatures warming from the 50s (or low-60s) well into the 70s.

Sunday

We’re continuing to watch a vigorous disturbance for Sunday that will likely pass comfortably south of Houston. That being said, rain chances are going to build up across the area, but especially south of the city during the afternoon. These breakdowns are approximate and if you fall “on a line,” don’t read into either too much.

For the City of Houston and points north: Expect clouds and some sun on Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s to near 60, and we will warm up in the mid-70s. Humidity will be a little higher Sunday but by no means oppressive. Showers are likely to break out during the afternoon hours, especially the closer you get to I-10 or highway 59/I-69. A thunderstorm can’t be completely ruled out either.

For places south of Houston: Expect mainly cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms developing on Sunday afternoon. Chances for heavier rain and more widespread thunder will be close to Matagorda Bay. As you go north or up the coast from there, rain chances will gradually taper from widespread to “scattered.” Some of the storms could be strong to severe on Sunday, especially as you get closer to the Corpus Christi area.

Rain will be heavy as well with 1 to 3 inches possible south of Matagorda Bay. Anyway, the bottom line is if your travels take you south of Houston on Sunday, you’ll want to be aware of this. Outdoor plans in and around Houston will clearly be a bit hit or miss.

Monday

This looks like a calmer day with just a very slight chance of showers or a storm. Look for highs in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s.

Tuesday

Details on how Tuesday will play out are fuzzy, but it’s safe to say that rain chances are notably higher versus Monday. Expect at least scattered showers and storms. It will be warmer and more humid, with highs near 80 and lows in the 60s.

Wednesday

The atmosphere may need to recover from leg day on Tuesday, so rain chances look a bit lower here. We should temps into the 80s with some sun, while AM lows struggle to get much below 70 degrees.

Thursday

Cold front day? Shower and storm chances will increase again here, as we see a cold front approach the region. Again, it’s too soon to figure out details. But it appears we’re going to see scattered storms at the least. This should hopefully setup a nice weekend for the MS150 and any other events around the region. But, we still have a few days to watch things.

The good news today is that Friday’s forecast may not be too bad at all. Yes, there will be rain chances tomorrow, but the worst of the weather should pass by early morning. The bad news is that tonight may feature midnight rain, staggered sleep, and an excitable dog index of at least eight out of ten.

Today

Today will be a bit challenging to pin down exactly. The morning looks fine. By midday, we should begin to see thunderstorms develop west of the Houston area, mainly on a line from College Station through Columbus. These storms will gradually become a bit stronger and slowly slide east, perhaps to Conroe or Huntsville south through Katy by late afternoon. By then, any storms could become borderline severe, with hail and gusty winds. Areas east of I-45 and along the coast may see little to nothing for most of today.

By evening, we’ll see scattered showers and storms pretty much along or northwest of Highway 59/I-69.

Thursday evening and overnight

Main message: Phase one of storms mainly north and west of Houston will begin winding down this evening. The second phase of storms should be widespread and hit most of the area with heavy rain, lots of thunder and lightning, and potentially strong, gusty winds in the overnight hours. It would be a good idea to have a way to receive weather warnings overnight, just to be safe.

Details: Afternoon storms will also develop on Thursday out in Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor. That separate area of storms will likely congeal into a well-organized complex of storms that rushes south and east this evening. The bulk of that will pass along and north of I-10 around or after midnight. Additionally, new storms “feeding” the main complex will develop south of Houston and lift northward. This can be seen in the forecast radar from the HRRR model at 2 AM tonight. I annotated the two areas here.

These types of setups are typically favorable to produce strong, gusty winds. Some of the storms developing to the south could become a bit severe as well, with hail or strong winds. Basically, all this adds up to a setup that is favorable to produce noisy weather in the overnight hours, probably beginning around or just before midnight north and west and then most of the rest of the areas between 12 and 3 AM. By 6 or 7 AM, most of the storms should be offshore.

Rain totals will probably average 1 to 2 inches for much of the area. The exceptions to this may be southwest of Houston. The heaviest activity may miss north and east of there, so rain totals risk coming in under an inch for places like Fort Bend County back through Wharton. Northwest of Houston and east of I-45 could see slightly greater amounts, as this is where storms will probably be heaviest.

Friday

Showers and storms should race offshore in the early morning. Typically, the atmosphere is pretty worked over after an event like this, so while there will continue to be a chance of showers or even a thunderstorm as the cold front approaches in the afternoon, the risk of anything significant appears to be on the low side right now. Expect gradual clearing and highs in the 80s Friday if the sun can break out for a time.

Saturday

Definitely the pick of the weekend. We expect morning lows in the 50s or low-60s, sunshine, and afternoon highs in the upper-70s. Weather for Taylor or the Dynamo match versus Inter Miami looks great.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend is a much trickier proposition. Morning lows will be in the 50s or low-60s. Then, there will be two forecasts for Sunday: One will be north of I-10, and the other will be south of I-10. Keep in mind that this is meant to be a generalization, not an exact demarcation.

For folks north of I-10, you will likely see clouds and perhaps a little sunshine. There is a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, especially the closer you are to Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid-70s depending on how much sun can break through.

Those of you south of I-10 should see clouds thicken up with highs in the low-70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the afternoon, especially the closer you are to Matagorda Bay. Rain could be heavy at times.

I would caution that there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty on the specifics of Sunday’s forecast, so if you have plans, be they T-Swift or otherwise, check back in with us tomorrow for the latest.

Early next week

The front half of next week looks generally unsettled with a chance of showers, albeit a fairly low one Monday and Tuesday. There may be a better chance of showers or storms Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows generally in the 60s.

Late next week & MS 150 preview

Presumably, Wednesday’s storms will herald a cold front that should bring in cooler, drier air for late next week. This would mean highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s or low-60s, along with low humidity. What does this mean for next weekend’s MS 150 ride across southeast Texas?

Usually when we get fronts like this in late April, the cool air stays a day or two, and then onshore flow resumes and we’re back to warm and humid. This front may have a little more “oomph” behind it, so I might be willing to say that Saturday would continue to be pleasant, with highs in the upper-70s to near 80, sunshine, and comfortably low humidity. It’s far too early to speculate much on wind, but this type of pattern would probably produce a light east or northeast wind, so almost a tail wind for Saturday if you’re leaving from Houston. I would assume that winds would be out of the south and a bit stronger on Sunday, with slightly higher humidity and highs in the 80s. For now, rain chances look low, but I have to caution that it’s still early. We will keep you posted!

Matt here covering for Eric, and I’ll take my extra time in the hot seat to stir the pot: In my own personal opinion, and feel free to disrespectfully disagree with me, Sunday was one of the top 5 nicest days of the year in Houston. It was clear, pleasant, and though breezy at times, it was surely a nice one. If you liked yesterday, you will love today.

Monday

We are starting off rather cool today with temperatures as cold as the low-40s in some outlying locations, including the league leader in cold mornings, Conroe.

Today will be another chamber of commerce day for Houston with sun, low humidity, and mild temperatures warming from the 40s or 50s into the 70s. Some clouds could filter in as the day progresses, but that should be the only blemish.

Tuesday

Tomorrow looks to be our transition day from the blue bell weather to something a little more typical of later April. Look for humidity to slowly increase through the day, as clouds dominate and a few showers or a thunderstorm pop up. Showers could begin as early as around sunrise. Basically, have an umbrella with you tomorrow, though some locations may not get wet. Highs will nudge into the upper-70s or low-80s after a morning in the 60s.

Wednesday & Thursday

Both Wednesday and Thursday will tend to have a mix of clouds and sun, typical spring stuff for Houston. There will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on both days. Right now I think Thursday has a little edge on Wednesday for higher rain chances, but it’s not exactly a slam dunk. Just be prepared to dodge some scattered showers both days, meaning many places won’t see anything, while others could see some downpours.

Highs will be in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 or so.

Late week & weekend

It’s tough to say exactly how the end of the week and weekend will go. Back on Friday it looked like we had about a 30 to 40 percent chance of a cold front pushing through the area either Friday or Saturday. Today, I would say that is up to about a 50 percent chance or even a little higher. The trouble is that if the front whiffs, it would probably be because it stalled out nearby, keeping showers in the forecast each day, along with higher humidity. So, for now, let’s go for a 50/50 chance of a more refreshing weekend. Otherwise, expect a continuation of Wednesday and Thursday’s weather. We’ll try to get closer on this tomorrow.

Looking ahead

The specific forecast for Southeast Texas this time of year always gets tricky because of the reasons noted about regarding fronts that like to stall out. But, looking at the pattern over the next couple weeks, it would appear that next week runs the risk of being a bit cooler than normal (particularly the front part of the week).

Rainfall is expected to be at or slightly above normal as well. It looks like spring.

For mid-April, it has been really nice here in Houston. The last several days have been just a few degrees below normal, which in April usually isn’t too bad. Those of you craving something more summery may get a chance to celebrate today and tomorrow. So as to not bury the lede, for those of you with parties or weddings or plans on Saturday: The vast majority of the day looks fine. There is a chance for a few showers in the morning. But the best chance for storms will be in the evening and probably highest to the south and east of Houston. More details below.

Today

Sun will give back in to cloud cover this afternoon. Onshore flow will send the humidity upwards through the day today. So it will feel a little hotter than it has most of this week. Highs top off in the low-80s.

Rain chances are not high, but they are not quite zero, with the best chance of a stray shower or two west of the Houston area late today.

Saturday

Starting with the rain and storms chances: First off, the Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe storms tomorrow. So, there is a very minor chance that we could see some strong to severe storms tomorrow evening. Just something to keep in mind if you’ll be outdoors for any evening events. Chances of severe weather are not high, but they are not zero.

So when could it rain? Well, the chance is low (not zero) for the majority of the daylight hours. You’ll most likely be fine. But, a few showers will probably pop up in the morning, especially along or north of I-10, and we could have some pockets of light rain or drizzle elsewhere. The morning may be a bit dreary in spots but probably no reason to call off your plans.

I think Saturday afternoon looks mostly fine at this point. Sure, there’s a chance of a shower, but the vast majority of the area will probably be ok. More on temperatures below.

It’s Saturday evening when the window opens for a better chance at quick hitting storms. Many of you may not see any rain. But the chance is there for the entire area. However, whatever hits Saturday evening will probably be quick (think 30 to 45 minutes mostly). That said, if you have plans for Saturday evening, have a safe spot to retreat to in case lightning comes into play for 45 minutes or so.

As far as temperatures go, after a morning near 70 degrees, we’re going to surge deep into the 80s I think, with a chance for a few 90s in spots, depending on how much sun shows up.

For Saturday evening plans, temps will cool off some, but we probably won’t notice anything really significant until Sunday morning.

Sunday

Humidity will plunge while most of us are asleep Saturday night, and by Sunday morning, it will feel somewhat refreshing outside, with temperatures around 60 or in the upper-50s to start the day. We’ll warm into the 70s with sunshine and a breezy north wind that may gust to 20 or 25 mph at times.

Monday and Tuesday

The week starts off lovely with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.

Clouds should begin to build in on Tuesday, and there’s at least a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Mid to late next week

Confidence in the forecast details will drop off pretty dramatically after Tuesday. All I can tell you right now is that there is a chance of showers and storms for the mid to late week period. There may be another front in the weekend timeframe but that is not exactly locked in on the modeling. Whether we see just isolated activity or more numerous, scattered, or heavier storms is an open question right now, something we will effort to have an answer on by Monday.

2023 hurricane season

The crew at Colorado State University unveiled their forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yesterday. It calls for an average to below average season this year, something we haven’t seen in preseason forecasts in several years. That’s great news, however it’s important to note that last year was considered an “average” hurricane season, yet it produced the third costliest hurricane in American history in Florida. 1983 was an extremely below average hurricane season, and it produced Hurricane Alicia here in Houston. We know everyone loves these seasonal outlooks, so we share them willingly, but it’s important to prepare for this hurricane season as you would any other.

One of the main reasons they are anticipating average or below average activity is because of a developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The last three summers have been neutral or La Niña driven, so the expectation has been for active seasons. The atmosphere will be much different this summer. In fact, if you look under the surface of the Pacific Ocean, you can see how much warm water is building.

You can decipher the image above in the caption, but the takeaway: El Niño is forming and it’s forming fast. That should aid wind shear in the Atlantic basin this hurricane season, which should hopefully cut down on the ability of storms to organize as easily as they have in recent seasons. That said, the Atlantic Ocean is very warm right now too, as is the Gulf.

So under the right conditions, it could be favorable for storm formation. Obviously, it’s April and a lot can change between now and August, so for now let’s just be grateful that the initial call for the season is quieter than normal. This El Niño is also likely to eventually impact our weather here in Texas. There’s no magic wand that tells us when or how that will happen, but we will probably notice some wetter periods across the state, more so than we have the last 2 or 3 years.