Matt Lanza

Yesterday saw some locally hefty rains across the area. We picked up anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of rainfall between Pearland and Westchase, with another bullseye out west of Cypress along 290 into Waller County.

Areas just south of The Woodlands saw 2 to 3 inches of rain as well. Even Matagorda Bay (not shown above) saw about an inch or more in most the area. We are not yet done with the rain, though we do not believe today will play out quite as yesterday did.

Today

We’re starting the day off with an area of rain sitting near Matagorda Bay and just a few showers in and around Galveston Bay and the island.

As the day goes on, look for more scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area. The highest chances will be south and east of about Cypress. So much of the area will see showers or at least hear thunder again. Those that see showers today could see as much as an inch or two of rain, while others will see next to nothing. Look for generally low 90s and light winds (except localized gusts in storms).

Saturday & Sunday

If you have weekend plans, you will probably be fine. But there will certainly be thunderstorms in the area. Look for about a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms on Saturday, followed up by about a 20 percent chance on Sunday. Outside of showers, look for sun, clouds, and slowly increasing temperatures. We’ll be in the low to mid-90s tomorrow and firm mid-90s on Sunday. Morning lows should be in the 70s on Saturday before back closer to 80 degrees on Sunday morning.

Early next week

Rain chances don’t quite go to zero to start next week, but they will drop off to the 10 to 20 percent range on Monday and Tuesday. As that occurs, look for temperatures to warm into mid to upper-90s, with morning lows near 80 degrees. It will begin to feel rather uncomfortable with peak heat index values over 105 degrees.

Heat returns

By the time we get to Wednesday, look for high temperatures near 100 degrees, give or take a couple, with morning lows around 80 degrees. The difference between this heat wave and June’s heat wave will be noteworthy. In June, the high pressure setup directly over northern Mexico or Texas, and we just baked with extreme (for June) heat. This time around, it looks more like a traditional summer heat wave, with high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest. It will strengthen and expand to a point where we see just a lot of generically “hot for July” weather in southeast Texas but probably not extreme heat. If the June pattern had recycled this time around, we’d probably be talking 102 to 105 degrees every day. Instead, we’re probably talking 98 to 102 degrees, which while quite uncomfortable is not terribly uncommon in July.

That said, I fully expect heat advisories to re-enter the chat by early next week. As this will again be a potent, long-duration period of high heat and humidity, heat precautions should be taken as they were in June.

Today marks our 18th straight day of heat advisories or heat warnings. We close June on the same note we’ve been singing (with rampant falsetto) since mid-month. Heat waves are often judged by how many temperature records are broken. So have there been many temperature records broken the last couple weeks? The answer is not really.

For the month of June, through yesterday, we set or tied a total of zero record highs at Bush, two at Hobby, none at Galveston, and none in College Station. Despite the general lack of record highs, we’ve managed to reach a frequency and consistency of 110+ heat index values that is rare for this region. It’s why we emphasized that this would be an abnormal heat wave for us.

Nighttimes have been more intriguing, with seven record warm minimum temperatures set or tied at Bush, seven at Hobby, none in Galveston, and five in College Station. The lack of any nighttime relief really contributes to defining how rough this has been.

Fortunately, we are past the peak of things it seems and we can start discussing how this will change.

Today and tomorrow

More of the same. Sunny and hot, with highs in the upper-90s and lows near 80, and a near zero chance of rain. Heat advisories will likely be needed for one more day tomorrow.

Sunday & Monday

This will be the transition period. Look for generally more of the same again. Expect mid to upper-90s for highs and upper-70s to near 80 for lows. However, the new wrinkle on these days will be rain chances. Sunday looks meager at best and mostly south and east of Houston. Let’s call it a 5 to 10 percent chance of a shower Sunday. That’s better than zero, but the odds remain stacked against you. By Monday, that rain chance should improve to 20 percent or so. Better!

Fourth of July Tuesday

This will be the trickiest day, because I could see our rain chances fizzling here or being something like 10 to 20 percent again. Or, coverage could increase a fair bit during the afternoon hours, with not everyone seeing rain but some folks needing to scurry indoors for a time. Let’s call it about a 30 percent chance of rain on Tuesday afternoon, with the highest odds south and east of Houston; higher chances than Monday but still relatively low. As of now, I’d expect that most evening events will be able to go off without issue.

Look for mid-90s or a little hotter on Tuesday with evening temperatures generally dropping back into the mid to upper 80s for fireworks or other activities.

Wednesday through Friday

We get a big boost in moisture beginning Wednesday, and this should translate to more scattered to numerous showers and storms through the late week period. While it’s tough to pin down the exact timing of rain chances each day, I would say that the chance is at least 50 to 60 percent on all three days. So there’s a good chance your neighborhood should see at least some rain at some point later next week.

Due to the clouds and showers, we should see high temperatures ease back into the low (!) or mid-90s at worst, more seasonable for early July. Nighttimes should be more firmly in the 70s. Eric will be back in the saddle Monday. Until then, stay cool!

Alright, I’ve been covering Eric most of this week, and given the stability in the forecast, it’s been a little challenging to discuss much, which has actually kept the posts pretty short and sweet! We’ll do that again today, but I want to focus more on next week.

Today through Sunday

More of the same: Sun, heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, and very minimal rain chances. Highs near 100 or in the upper-90s. Lows near 80 each day.

I suppose Sunday may see a slightly better chance for a stray shower along the coast, but even that looks mediocre at best right now.

Monday & Tuesday

With the holiday weekend perhaps being four days for many of you, there will be obvious interest in Monday and Tuesday’s forecast. What we know is that rain chances will not be zero on those days. However, the higher rain chances next week look to hold off until Wednesday through Friday. Our shower chances will be about 10 to 20 percent on Monday and 30 percent on Tuesday, hopefully winding down in time for area fireworks displays. I don’t think anyone needs to alter plans for the Fourth, but it’s probably a good idea to think about a rain option, just to be extra safe, if only for a short period of time.

Rest of next week

As we move beyond Independence Day, it looks as though we will ease into more of a classic midsummer pattern for Houston. It won’t be cool, but it will be noticeably less hot. We should see fewer and less regular heat advisories or warnings. Expect highs more into the mid-90s, near average for this time of year. Morning lows will be mostly in the 70s to perhaps near 80 at times. But each day will carry at least a 20 to 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms to locally cool things off. Rain chances should build into the end of the week, nearing 50 percent on Thursday and Friday before declining once more.

We logged a pair of 99s yesterday at both Bush and Hobby, with maximum heat index values of 107 to 110 degrees. Temperatures have been hitting the forecast mark at night, with lows of 81° yesterday at both sites, but we continue to miss daytime highs by at least 1 to 3 degrees. Still, the heat index or “feels like” temperature has been verifying close to forecast. It’s been one of the more interesting heat waves in terms of forecast accuracy that I can recall. And it continues.

Today through Saturday

The forecast is pretty unchanged through Saturday. As we’ve been discussing all week, it looks pretty stable each day, with highs near 100 and lows near 80 each morning. Rain chances remain near zero. Hopefully we can maintain something more at heat advisory criteria than excessive heat warning criteria, but that will depend on the exact nuance of each day. Continue to practice heat safety.

Sunday

We continue to look for our transition out of this pattern to begin on Sunday. While showers and storms aren’t exactly likely, there’s at least a chance slightly greater than zero. Highs will likely maintain near 100°, with lows near 80 in the morning.

Monday

We see an even more significant collapse of the dome of high pressure over Texas off to the south and east on Monday, meaning it weakens and pushes away.

This will open up the door to a “weakness” in the atmosphere that will allow for more moisture and a better chance of showers and storms by the afternoon. These probably won’t be the same type of storms we saw last week, where they rip out of the north and hammer us with severe weather. Expect something more traditional for Houston summers, with hit and miss afternoon downpours and a fair bit of lightning.

Rest of next week

For July 4th festivities, there will definitely be a chance of showers or storms during the afternoon. I would have a backup plan in place indoors, just to be safe right now. I would absolutely not cancel anything though. We’ll offer more color on that outlook tomorrow and Friday. More shower and storm chances will continue into mid and late week. We may even add some tropical moisture to the mix at some point to enhance showers, but that is very much TBD.

We do continue to see signs that high pressure in the upper atmosphere may again try to exert itself over Texas after next weekend, but whether that means super hot and dry again or just generically hot with fewer rain chances remains to be seen. Next week’s cooler change looks more temporary than permanent right now.